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📰 Algeria joins BRICS bank

📰 Algeria joins BRICS bank

and Ethiopia braces for conflict

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
September 03, 2024

Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics Daily,

Today's dispatch highlights key developments across Africa, Europe, and the Middle East: BRICS is set to admit energy-rich Algeria into its financial institution, while the Horn of Africa faces rising conflict. Gabon marks the one-year anniversary of its "coup of liberation," and anti-government protests engulf Tel Aviv.

In Germany, state elections show the far-right AfD gaining ground, underscoring the salient political divide between East and West.

Stay informed with these stories and more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇩🇿 Algeria poised to join the financial arm of the BRICS bloc: Algeria has been approved for membership in the BRICS New Development Bank (NDB), the country’s finance ministry announced. The decision, made on Saturday and announced by NDB chief Dilma Rousseff during a meeting in Cape Town, South Africa, marks a significant step for energy-rich Algeria in integrating into the global financial system. The BRICS New Development Bank, established by Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, offers an alternative to traditional international financial institutions like the World Bank and IMF. Algeria's admission was attributed to the strength of its macroeconomic indicators, which have shown remarkable improvement in recent years, elevating the country to the status of an "upper-tier emerging economy," according to the finance ministry.

2️⃣ 🇪🇬 🇺🇳 🇪🇹 🇸🇴 Likelihood of military confrontation between Egypt and Ethiopia grows, as Cairo appeals to the United Nations Security Council: Egypt has escalated tensions with Ethiopia by formally addressing the UNSC about the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), declaring its commitment to "defend its water security by any necessary means." The construction of GERD on the Nile River has been a point of contention, with Egypt perceiving the dam as a significant threat to its vital water resources. Despite several rounds of negotiations, including a 2019 effort mediated by the U.S., a lasting agreement remains elusive. In a related geopolitical manoeuvre, Egypt’s military presence in Somalia is seen as a strategic move with multiple objectives: strengthening the Somali army against Al-Shabaab, bolstering Somali territorial unity, securing the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and exerting pressure on Ethiopia. Analysts suggest that Egypt's involvement in Somalia is partly a response to the ongoing diplomatic deadlock over the GERD, signalling Cairo’s readiness to escalate its actions to counter perceived threats from Ethiopia.

3️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Tens of thousands protests in Tel Aviv after six more hostages killed, IDF bombs another school in Gaza: On Sunday night, scuffles broke out between protesters and security forces during one of the largest anti-government demonstrations since the Gaza conflict began nearly 11 months ago. Protesters blocked roads in Tel Aviv and rallied outside Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office in West Jerusalem. In a significant move, the Histadrut—Israel's largest trade union federation—called for a general strike to pressure the government into signing a ceasefire agreement. Truce negotiations between Israel and Hamas have stalled for months, with many blaming Netanyahu for the impasse. Meanwhile, Israeli forces continued airstrikes in the Gaza Strip, killing dozens of Palestinians, including 11 sheltering in a school in northern Gaza City and four travelling in a car near Deir el-Balah.

4️⃣ 🇩🇪 AfD’s rise reflects Germany’s East-West political rift: After the Berlin Wall fell in November 1989, former West German Chancellor Willy Brandt optimistically predicted that reunification would allow “what belongs together to grow together.” However, 35 years later, that vision seems increasingly distant. Recent election results from Thuringia and Saxony reveal a widening divide between Germany’s eastern and western regions. The far-right, anti-immigration Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is gaining significant traction, particularly in the east. Polls suggest that if federal elections were held tomorrow, the AfD could become the second-strongest party in the Bundestag. In the eastern states, the AfD is making significant inroads; in Thuringia, under Björn Höcke, the party topped a state election for the first time, securing at least 30% of the vote. In the west, the AfD’s influence remains limited, with established parties like the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) maintaining their lead. However, in Saxony, the AfD is in a close race with the CDU, and in Brandenburg, it is expected to become the strongest party. While traditional parties have so far managed to block the AfD from gaining a majority, the party's rise as a dominant regional force raises serious questions about Germany’s political identity and how it will address the growing influence of far-right populism.

5️⃣ 🇾🇪 Houthis claim another Red Sea attack: Yemen's Houthi rebels fired two missiles at a Liberian-flagged container ship in the Gulf of Aden, with the projectiles landing nearby without causing any damage, authorities reported. This incident follows a more severe attack in which the Houthis assaulted and boarded a Greek-flagged oil tanker in the Red Sea, planting and detonating explosives that threatened a significant oil spill. The rebels' actions are disrupting the $1 trillion in goods passing through the Red Sea annually, amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict and affecting aid shipments to Sudan and Yemen. The missiles in the Friday night attack exploded near the vessel about 240 kilometres (150 miles) east of Aden, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre. The targeted ship, identified by the Joint Maritime Information Center as the Liberian-flagged Groton, reported that its crew was safe and continued to its next destination.

Major Story

🇳🇪 REPORT REVEALS MARGINALISATION OF WOMEN IN ISLAMIC STATE-CONTROLLED AREAS OF NIGER

Background

Over the past five years, the Islamist insurgency Islamic State Sahel Province, also known as IS Sahel, has tightened its grip on northern Niger's Tillaberi region, particularly in the rural Abala department. As one of two major jihadist groups in the area, IS Sahel enforces strict Islamic law, imposing harsher restrictions on women who were already facing inequality before the group's rise. The 2023 coup and reduced donor support have further hindered progress in improving women’s rights, disrupting efforts to lower Niger's high birth rate and enhance girls' education.

Gender inequality in Tillaberi region

Abala department, with a population of around 215,000, lies within Niger's troubled Tillaberi region, long affected by insurgencies spilling over from Mali. Security forces have mostly withdrawn from rural Abala but maintain a base in Abala town, ensuring minimal state services for the many displaced people seeking refuge there. IS Sahel exerts control over the rest of the department, particularly in remote villages near the Malian border, through sudden attacks, a network of informants, and lethal violence to enforce its laws and punish violations.

Abala faces numerous challenges beyond the hardships imposed by IS Sahel’s rule. The recent coup led to the suspension of crucial budget support and development aid from major donors like the European Union. While humanitarian aid continues, new restrictions, including military escorts for convoys, have complicated and increased the cost of delivering assistance. Additionally, a border dispute with Benin, which is vital for Niger's trade, has worsened supply issues.

Humanitarian needs are escalating as IS Sahel continues its attacks on civilians, particularly targeting boys and men for alleged infractions and imposing severe restrictions on women and girls, which limits their ability to work and contributes to rising school dropouts and early marriages. The conflict has also exacerbated pre-existing discriminatory practices and worsened intercommunal tensions.

Paths forward

According to an International Crisis Group report, understanding gender dynamics in IS Sahel-controlled areas is crucial for effective intervention. By focusing on improving basic services like health and education, and fostering cross-communal connections among women, authorities and donors can make meaningful progress. Engaging women in local dispute resolution and governance could also enhance community resilience.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇬🇦 Gabon celebrates ‘coup of liberation’ one year anniversary: A year after a military coup ended the Bongo dynasty's 56-year rule in Gabon, the country marked the anniversary with celebrations and renewed promises from the ruling junta to advance reforms. The ouster of President Ali Bongo was largely welcomed by the Gabonese population, who had endured years of economic stagnation and widespread poverty under his family's management of the country's oil wealth. In Libreville, hundreds gathered for official celebrations led by interim president General Brice Oligui Nguema, commemorating what many call the "coup of liberation." While the economic outlook remains uncertain and the junta has yet to set a date for the promised transition to democracy, many supporters have expressed cautious optimism.