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📰 Amhara's war deepens

📰 Amhara's war deepens

and Beirut struck again

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
November 20, 2024

Hello,

Today, Gabon has voted on a new post-coup constitution, while India and Nigeria bolster security ties and reaffirm support for the Global South. In the Middle East, Israel’s latest assault on northern Gaza has killed over 70 Palestinians, and escalating clashes with Hizbollah has seen strikes in both Beirut and Tel Aviv, though Lebanon has reportedly accepted a U.S.-proposed ceasefire.

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Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇲🇲 Myanmar, China reportedly pen ‘joint security company’: China has proposed creating a "joint security company" with Myanmar’s military junta to protect Chinese investments and personnel, amid rising instability since the February 2021 coup. A committee has been set up by the junta to draft an MoU for the company, which will oversee the import of weapons, communications equipment, and other tools to safeguard Chinese infrastructure. Growing concerns over the safety of Chinese assets stem from attacks on Chinese-run facilities by resistance groups, such as the People's Defense Forces, which have seized key projects. Despite the junta's weakening control, China remains committed to its strategic interests in Myanmar, particularly the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) and crucial oil and gas pipelines. This shift signals deeper Chinese involvement in Myanmar's conflict, contradicting its usual stance on non-interference.

2️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇷🇺 🇺🇳 Russia vetoes UN Security Council’s Sudan ceasefire deal: Russia has blocked a UN Security Council resolution urging an immediate ceasefire in Sudan, where ongoing conflict has displaced millions and sparked a dire humanitarian crisis. The resolution, proposed by the UK and Sierra Leone, called for a cessation of hostilities and the initiation of peace talks. Russia cast the sole vote against the resolution, citing objections to what it described as external imposition on Sudanese sovereignty. Russian Deputy UN Ambassador Dmitry Polyanskiy argued that while a ceasefire is essential, it must emerge from negotiations among Sudanese factions, not through a Security Council mandate. He also accused the UK of double standards, referencing Britain’s support for Israel in Gaza, and criticised the resolution as reflective of “neo-colonialism.” The Sudan conflict, ongoing since April 2023, has displaced over 11 million people, including 3.1 million who fled the country.

3️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇳🇬 India and Nigeria expand security ties and emphasise global south support: During a meeting on Sunday, the leaders of Nigeria and India pledged to strengthen their partnership in maritime security, counterterrorism, and support for Global South nations. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on his first visit to Nigeria, was hosted by President Bola Tinubu in Abuja. The two leaders discussed deepening their strategic ties in defence, energy, technology, trade, and development. Modi emphasised India’s role as a voice for the Global South, a group of mainly developing nations, including Nigeria. A joint statement highlighted increased collaboration on counterterrorism, maritime security, and intelligence sharing, particularly in the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Guinea, known for high piracy risks. Nigeria is India’s largest African trade partner, with bilateral trade reaching $14.9 billion in 2022. In recognition of his contributions, Tinubu conferred upon Modi Nigeria's second-highest national honour.

4️⃣ 🇰🇵 🇺🇸 North Korea’s Kim calls for expansion of nuclear forces: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has reiterated his call for an “unlimited” expansion of his military nuclear program to counter U.S.-led threats, marking his first direct criticism of Washington since Donald Trump’s election win. Speaking at a conference with army officials, Kim condemned the U.S. for updating its nuclear deterrence strategies with South Korea and strengthening its military cooperation with Japan, which he described as an “Asian NATO,” further escalating regional tensions. He also criticised U.S. support for Ukraine in its war with Russia, accusing Washington and its allies of using Ukraine as a proxy to extend U.S. military influence. Recently, Kim has emphasised North Korea’s growing ties with Russia, aligning with President Vladimir Putin in opposition to Western powers.

5️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 Beirut and Tel Aviv sustain hits as Israel and Hizbollah exchange fire, U.S. ceasefire proposal reportedly accepted by Lebanon: Israeli airstrikes on Beirut’s Zuqaq al-Blat neighbourhood killed five people on Monday, marking the second consecutive day of strikes within Lebanon's capital, according to the Lebanese health ministry. The densely populated area is near central Beirut, where government offices are located. In response, Hizbollah has launched drones and missiles into Israel, with one attack injuring six in Tel Aviv on Monday evening. Meanwhile, US-led diplomacy has gained momentum, with Lebanon and Hizbollah responding to a ceasefire proposal. A senior Lebanese official described the talks as the most promising yet, though unresolved details remain. US envoy Amos Hochstein is expected in Beirut to advance negotiations, while Lebanon insists on adherence to UN Resolution 1701.

Major Story

🇪🇹 THE WAR IN AMHARA: IS ETHIOPIA ON THE BRINK OF BALKANISATION?

Over the past 20 months, Ethiopia's Amhara region has been engulfed in a brutal conflict between the federal government and the Fano militia, an ethno-nationalist group seeking full control over Amhara's disputed territories. As per a report from the New Humanitarian, the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) has been accused of committing grave human rights violations, including indiscriminate drone strikes that have killed hundreds of civilians, particularly in rural areas. Despite these attacks, Fano has expanded its influence, even infiltrating urban centres.

Key Players and Structure of Fano

The Fano militia, once a loose network of district militias, is gradually consolidating into a unified force. In July, various factions elected Eskinder Nega—a journalist and opposition leader—as their head, though key groups rejected his appointment. The most prominent factions include the Amhara Fano People's Organisation, led by Nega, and others in Gojjam, Wollo, Shewa, and Gondar. Fano's appeal stems from its broad support among Amhara civilians, who view the militia as their only protectors against perceived existential threats from both the government and rival ethnic groups.

Humanitarian Crisis and Military Escalation

The ongoing violence has led to severe humanitarian consequences. Thousands of women have sought treatment for sexual abuse, and humanitarian workers face growing risks, with several killed or abducted. Drone strikes by Turkish and Chinese-made drones have contributed significantly to civilian casualties, particularly in towns like Afessa, where the recent attack on a high school killed four children. Human rights organisations have condemned the government for targeting civilians and medical facilities in the conflict.

Fano’s Objectives and Government Response

Fano’s goals are to end what it perceives as the oppression of the Amhara people and to reshape Ethiopia’s federal constitution, which it believes marginalises their community. However, critics suggest Fano’s actions may aim to restore Amhara dominance. Following the 2020 Tigray war—where Fano fought alongside the federal forces, and committed war crimes and crimes against humanity—the group’s military capabilities grew, and its leadership became more unified. Tensions with the government escalated after the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which sidelined Amhara forces, deepening mistrust.

Calls for Constitutional Reform

Both Fano and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed advocate for constitutional change, but with differing visions. Fano calls for a new constitution that transcends ethnic divisions, while critics of Abiy argue his agenda is to centralise power in Addis Ababa. Although Fano has resisted federal control, there are indications that negotiations could take place if the militia gains full control of Amhara. Despite ongoing violence, some leaders—including Asres from Fano—are open to dialogue, but only under conditions that address their demands for regional autonomy and constitutional reform.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 Latest North Gaza onslaught kills over 70 Palestinians: At least 72 Palestinians were killed in Israeli air strikes on the northern Gaza town of Beit Lahia on Sunday, according to local authorities. Israeli warplanes targeted several residential buildings and homes in the area, including a five-story building that collapsed, killing around 50 people. Many of the victims were displaced civilians, including women and children. The strikes are part of a larger Israeli operation in northern Gaza, which began on October 5 with the goal of preventing Hamas from regrouping. The operation has led to over 2,000 Palestinian casualties, with Gaza facing severe shortages of food, medicine, and fuel. Despite a UN Security Council resolution calling for a cease-fire, Israel’s offensive continues, with more than 43,800 people killed since October 2023.

2️⃣ 🇬🇦 Gabon votes for new post-coup d'etat constitution: Gabonese voters have overwhelmingly approved a new constitution, with 91% supporting the measure in Saturday’s referendum, according to Interior Minister Hermann Immongault. Announced on state television, the results await final validation by the Constitutional Court. The proposed constitution introduces major reforms aimed at curbing dynastic rule, including a seven-year presidential term limited to one renewal and a ban on family members succeeding the president. It also eliminates the prime minister's position. These changes follow the 2023 military coup that ousted President Ali Bongo Ondimba, who had ruled since 2009 after succeeding his father’s 41-year presidency. Under Gen. Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema’s transitional leadership, the referendum marks a significant step in reshaping governance in the oil-rich nation, where wealth inequality and high youth unemployment remain pressing issues. Voter turnout was approximately 53.5%.