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📰 Armed drones escalate Haiti's crisis

📰 Armed drones escalate Haiti's crisis

and Rwanda controlling M23, says UN

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
July 03, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

Today, the Pentagon re-evaluates global weapons transfers as Patriot missile deliveries to Ukraine are paused, while armed drones mark a turning point in Haiti’s escalating crisis. In Africa, Uganda’s President Museveni declares a seventh-term bid amid growing succession uncertainty, as Eritrean President Isaias tightens repression at home and abroad.

Our lead story turns to Beijing. China’s pivot from global lender to chief debt collector marks a shift with sweeping implications for developing nations and global power balances.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇪🇬 🇱🇾 🇸🇩 🇦🇪 Sisi hosts Burhan, Haftar, following RSF strategic triangle seizure: Sudan’s military leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan held talks in Cairo with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, shortly after Sisi met separately with commander of the Tobruk-based ‘Libyan National Army’ (LNA), Khalifa Haftar. Burhan had cut short his trip to a UN conference in Seville, cancelling a planned meeting with Spain’s foreign minister, to make the unannounced visit. The meetings came amid escalating tensions following the Rapid Support Forces’ seizure of the border triangle between Sudan, Egypt, and Libya. The Sudanese army has accused a Haftar-aligned Salafist militia of supporting the RSF, with reports of RSF training camps in Libya. Egyptian state media said Sisi and Haftar discussed expelling foreign forces from Libya, while sources suggest Sisi may broker direct talks between Burhan and Haftar. Cairo reaffirmed support for Sudan’s unity and efforts to boost humanitarian aid. This development may provoke a sharp response from Abu Dhabi toward Cairo, as the UAE backs both Haftar’s LNA and Sudan’s RSF, and could view the talks as encroaching on its regional strategy.

2️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇷🇼 🇨🇩 UN report finds that Rwanda exercises complete command and control over M23 rebels in eastern DRC: A UN report accuses Rwanda of exerting direct command over M23 rebels during their offensive in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, providing training, advanced weaponry, and operational oversight. The report states Rwanda’s support aims not at neutralising FDLR militias, as Kigali claims, but at securing territory rich in tin, tantalum, and gold. UN investigators estimate 6,000 Rwandan troops have operated in North and South Kivu provinces, training M23 fighters at Rwandan military bases. The experts also allege Rwanda violated arms embargoes and fired missiles at UN peacekeepers. Kigali denies the claims, citing national security concerns. Amid growing international pressure, Rwanda and Congo signed a peace deal in Washington, with Qatar hosting parallel mediation. UN findings suggest M23 movements remain directed by Rwanda, raising concerns of regional escalation.

3️⃣ 🇯🇵 🇮🇳 🇺🇸 🇦🇺 🇨🇳 The Quad deepens strategic coordination against China despite tariff tensions: Despite mounting trade frictions with the United States, the Quad nations—Japan, India, Australia, and the U.S.—reaffirmed their strategic alignment on maritime security and critical mineral independence during a ministerial meeting in Washington. The group voiced concern over China’s actions in the South and East China Seas and announced a new Quad Critical Minerals Initiative to diversify supply chains. Analysts in Beijing caution that while tariff disputes persist, the underlying strategic goal of countering China remains firm. China’s dominance in rare earths was cited as a catalyst for the West’s efforts to reduce dependency. Still, observers doubt the Quad can establish supply autonomy soon. Experts warn Beijing to avoid overplaying its leverage and to prepare for maritime law enforcement moves that may extend into contested South China Sea zones.

4️⃣ 🇭🇹 Armed drones used in Haiti’s gang crackdown amid rights concerns and foreign involvement: Haitian authorities are increasingly deploying armed drones to combat gang control in Port-au-Prince, with over 300 killed and nearly 400 injured since the campaign began in March, according to RNDDH. Footage circulating online shows drone strikes on gang-controlled areas and even civilian sites, raising legal and ethical concerns. Some experts suspect these videos are produced by a covert taskforce backed by the Haitian government, possibly involving foreign contractors. Human rights groups in Haiti support the drone operations as a proportionate response to gang violence that has displaced over a million. Still, critics warn of legal ambiguity and escalation risks, especially as gangs reportedly attempt to acquire similar drones. Despite the controversy, officials say drone strikes have reduced violence and reopened parts of the city, though oversight remains limited and concerns over political control persist.

5️⃣.🇺🇸 🇺🇦 Pentagon reviews global weapons transfers as Patriot deliveries to Ukraine paused: The Pentagon has launched a review of U.S. weapons exports amid rising concerns over dwindling stockpiles of key munitions, including Patriot air defense systems. Deliveries to Ukraine—particularly of HIMARS missiles, 155mm artillery shells, and Patriots—have been paused as part of this reassessment, which prioritises U.S. strategic needs. Officials confirmed the review could impact additional allies, though did not specify which. The move follows U.S. missile use in shielding Israeli and Qatari cities during recent regional conflict. Ukraine has warned that reduced support could embolden Russia and weaken its air defense. The review is overseen by Under Secretary of Defense Elbridge Colby and aligns with calls to shift U.S. resources from Europe and the Middle East toward the Indo-Pacific. Kyiv has urged continued support, calling any delays damaging to regional stability.

Major Story

🇨🇳 CHINA’S SHIFT FROM GLOBAL LENDER TO CHIEF DEBT COLLECTOR

China’s role in global development financing has fundamentally changed. Once hailed as the foremost bilateral lender to the Global South, Beijing is now a net recipient of repayments from developing countries—particularly from the poorest and most fragile economies. In 2025 alone, low-income and vulnerable states are expected to transfer a record $22 billion to China in debt repayments. The shift marks a dramatic reversal from the early years of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), when Chinese financing far outpaced that of traditional Western donors.

This transformation is the result of peaking debt servicing costs from loans issued during the 2010s, combined with a sharp decline in new Chinese lending. Beijing’s outbound financing has plummeted to pre-2008 levels, while repayments to Chinese lenders—especially policy banks—have surged, leaving developing countries squeezed between high repayment obligations and diminishing access to concessional finance.

The Weight of Debt and Its Consequences

Developing economies now face an acute debt crisis, with over half of the world’s poorest countries at high risk of default. In 2025, total repayments to China across all developing nations will reach $35 billion, with 75 of the most vulnerable countries bearing the brunt. These repayments are crowding out essential public investment, including in health, education, and climate adaptation. For many, debt service to China now exceeds what they pay to all Western creditors combined. China’s retreat from lending has been especially harmful given the broader withdrawal of Western aid and a more inward-focused United States and Europe. Unlike Paris Club countries that boosted concessional lending during the pandemic, China’s approach has been largely procyclical—pulling back just as many countries fell into crisis. In 2024, China’s net financial flows to developing countries turned deeply negative, with repayments exceeding disbursements by $34 billion.

Strategic Lending and Lingering Leverage

Despite the global pullback, China continues to lend selectively to strategically important neighbours—like Pakistan, Laos, and Kazakhstan—and to nations rich in battery minerals, including Congo DR and Indonesia. Loans have also been used as diplomatic tools to reward countries that adopt the One China policy, such as Honduras and the Solomon Islands.

Yet this selectivity is unlikely to ease wider debt distress. China now holds more than half of all bilateral debt owed by the world’s poorest economies and is the largest creditor to over 50 developing nations. This gives Beijing outsized influence in restructuring talks—but also places it in a bind: restructure too generously and risk domestic financial fallout; push too hard and alienate allies.

Reputation at Stake

China’s future role in the global debt system will shape not only economic outcomes for debtor countries, but also its own geopolitical image. While claims of “debt-trap diplomacy” are contested, the evidence is clear that Chinese loans have driven unsustainable debt levels in many countries. Yet despite participating in limited restructuring initiatives, China still resists broader debt forgiveness, wary of setting precedents and internal institutional losses.

If Beijing fails to adapt, it risks replaying the mistakes of 1980s-era Western lenders—extending loans that trap poor nations in prolonged distress. For the world’s most vulnerable states, the cost of this failure will be stagnation, instability, and diminished sovereignty.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇪🇷 🇺🇳 President Isaias maintains indefinite national service as Eritrea suppresses dissent at home and abroad: Eritrea’s human rights crisis remains acute, with indefinite national service continuing to dominate daily life and drive mass displacement. Fundamental freedoms are persistently suppressed through widespread arbitrary detention, enforced disappearances, and the silencing of dissent. The government’s reach also extends transnationally, targeting members of the diaspora while Eritrean refugees face worsening conditions due to regional instability and harsher migration regimes. A decade after the UN commission of inquiry's first report, impunity persists. The Special Rapporteur notes that Eritrea has ignored calls for justice, failing to implement key human rights recommendations or ensure accountability for long-standing abuses. No significant reforms have been enacted to provide redress for victims or prevent future violations.

2️⃣ 🇺🇬 Ugandan President Museveni announces seventh-term bid amid succession vacuum: Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni confirmed plans to seek a seventh term in 2026, extending a rule that began in 1986. Now 80, Museveni has twice altered the constitution to stay in power, sidelining opponents and eroding democratic space. His 2021 challenge from Bobi Wine, a popular musician-turned-politician, was met with a crackdown that included abductions, torture, and extrajudicial killings by security forces. With dissent suppressed and no clear successor—his son Muhoozi seen as erratic and unfit—Museveni’s re-election appears a foregone conclusion. Yet this lack of succession planning risks long-term instability. As Museveni ages, Uganda faces an uncertain future, likely entering its post-Museveni era without preparation—a scenario that could destabilise both the country and the wider region.