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📰 ASEAN pushes back on China

📰 ASEAN pushes back on China

and Starmer denies Zelenskyy’s request

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
October 11, 2024

Hello and welcome to Geopolitics Daily,

At the ASEAN summit in Vientiane, leaders condemned China’s actions in the South China Sea, while Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-Te reaffirmed the island's sovereignty amid regional pressures.

The Middle East remains in a critical state as Gulf states urge Washington to prevent Israeli strikes on Iranian oil facilities, fearing a wider conflict that could threaten their oil infrastructure. Recent Israeli airstrikes have killed over 20 people in central Beirut, and UN peacekeepers in southern Lebanon have been injured in an Israeli attack.

Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia have signed a trilateral pact in Asmara, increasing tensions with Ethiopia, a regional heavyweight.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇬🇧 🇺🇦 Downing Street maintains restrictions on long-range missile use, despite Zelenskyy’s plea: The UK has maintained its restrictions on Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles, despite President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s recent visit, Downing Street confirmed. Zelenskyy met with Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Thursday, renewing his plea to use Storm Shadow missiles and other Western-supplied weapons to strike Russian military targets deep within Russian territory. The missiles, with a range of about 250 km (155 miles), are seen by Kyiv as crucial for defending against attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. Although there were earlier indications that the UK and US might approve Kyiv's request, no change in policy was made following Starmer's talks with President Biden. A Downing Street spokesperson stated that "no war has ever been won by a single weapon" and that the focus remains on broader strategic support for Ukraine, rather than specific arms. Discussions of operational details, they added, would benefit Russia's President Putin.

2️⃣ 🇪🇷 🇪🇬 🇸🇴 Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia sign trilateral pact in Asmara amidst Ethiopia tensions: The leaders of Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea—nations with tense relations with Ethiopia—recently met in Asmara, Eritrea. A statement from Eritrea emphasised respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, likely hinting at Ethiopia’s ambitions for a seaport, though Ethiopia wasn't mentioned directly. Rising diplomatic tensions have drawn Somalia closer to Egypt and Eritrea, both of which have long standing disputes with Ethiopia. Some analysts, like Hassan Khannenje, see this meeting as an attempt to increase pressure on Addis Ababa. However, Somalia’s Information Minister, Daud Aweis, denied any anti-Ethiopia intentions, stating the meeting was focused on cooperation. A photograph from the summit shows Egyptian President Sisi with his Eritrean and Somali counterparts, underscoring their commitment to strengthening Somalia’s state institutions and military. Ethiopia has supported Somalia’s fight against al-Shabab but angered Mogadishu by signing a coastal deal with Somaliland, which Somalia claims as its own.

3️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 Over 20 people killed by Israeli airstrikes in Central Beirut: Al Jazeera's correspondent in Beirut reports a "scene of chaos" after Israeli airstrikes hit the city centre, demolishing two residential buildings and killing at least 22 people, according to Lebanon's Health Ministry. Another 117 were wounded in the attack. Meanwhile, Jean-Pierre Lacroix, the United Nations peacekeeping chief, informed the UN Security Council that the safety of UNIFIL (United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon) peacekeepers is increasingly at risk. He noted that Israeli forces have opened fire on UNIFIL posts in southern Lebanon, resulting in two peacekeepers being injured.

4️⃣ 🇱🇦 🇨🇳 ASEAN summit attendees chastises Chinese South China Sea aggravations: During the annual ASEAN summit on Thursday, Southeast Asian leaders increased pressure on China to adhere to international law following recent confrontations in the South China Sea. However, Chinese Premier Li Qiang remained defiant, blaming "external forces" for stoking regional tensions. The clashes, involving China and ASEAN members such as the Philippines and Vietnam, have intensified concerns over Beijing's aggressive stance in the disputed waters. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, set to chair ASEAN next year, called for swift progress on the long-discussed code of conduct for the South China Sea. Despite ongoing negotiations, differences over making the agreement binding have stalled its conclusion. Li, without naming specific nations, attributed regional conflicts to foreign interference, an apparent reference to the U.S. Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to address China's maritime assertiveness at the summit. The South China Sea dispute involves overlapping claims from ASEAN nations and China, which asserts control over nearly the entire area.

5️⃣ 🇸🇦 🇦🇪 🇶🇦 Gulf states urge Washington to stop Israeli attack on Iranian oil facilities: Gulf states are pressuring Washington to prevent Israel from targeting Iran’s oil facilities, fearing their own oil infrastructure could be attacked by Tehran’s allies if the conflict escalates, according to three sources familiar with the situation. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar have also refused to allow Israeli military aircraft to use their airspace for any strike on Iran and have conveyed this stance to U.S. officials. Following a recent missile strike by Iran, which Israel has vowed to retaliate for, Tehran warned of "vast destruction" in response, raising fears of a broader regional conflict potentially involving the U.S. Iran has urged its Gulf neighbours to leverage their influence with Washington, emphasising during recent meetings that Gulf oil facilities could be at risk if they support Israel in any way. This issue was central to discussions between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi during the latter’s Gulf tour.

Major Story

🇺🇳 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 UNIFIL PEACEKEEPERS WOUNDED AFTER ISRAELI ATTACK IN SOUTH LEBANON

Background

The United Nations peacekeeping mission in Lebanon (UNIFIL) reported that Israeli forces deliberately targeted its positions, injuring two peacekeepers. This incident has fueled further accusations of international law violations as Israel continues ground incursions into Lebanon as part of its ongoing conflict with Hizbollah, which originated in Gaza a year ago.

The UNIFIL peacekeepers' injuries occurred after Israeli forces fired on an observation tower in Naqoura, just north of the Lebanese border. UNIFIL described these actions as deliberate and a severe violation of international humanitarian law. Another UNIFIL position in Labbouneh was also targeted, damaging vehicles and communication systems. UNIFIL reported that Israeli drones had been observed flying over the position prior to the attacks, suggesting the strikes were premeditated.

Global Condemnation of Israeli Actions

These attacks have sparked outrage among UN member states contributing troops to UNIFIL, particularly as Israel is already under scrutiny for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity. In parallel, a UN report led by former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay accused Israel of systematically dismantling Gaza’s healthcare system, actions that could constitute war crimes and even crimes against humanity. Pillay stated that Israeli forces have persistently targeted medical personnel and facilities since the conflict began, following a Hamas attack on southern Israel in October the previous year. The report further emphasised that children have disproportionately suffered from the collapse of Gaza's healthcare infrastructure.

Legal Proceedings and Civilian Casualties

Israel now faces potential genocide charges at the International Court of Justice, with the International Criminal Court also considering possible arrest warrants for Israeli leaders, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Amid these legal challenges, an Israeli airstrike on a school sheltering displaced civilians in Deir al-Balah recently resulted in the deaths of 27 people, including women and children.

International Response

Countries contributing troops to UNIFIL, including Ireland, France, and Italy, condemned the attacks. Irish Foreign Minister Micheál Martin described the incidents as "unacceptable," emphasising that peacekeepers should be protected. Israel responded by stating its forces fired near the UNIFIL base in response to Hizbollah activities in the region. Israel's increasingly aggressive stance towards the UN has also drawn attention, particularly regarding UNRWA, the UN's agency for Palestinian refugees, which Israel alleges has ties to Hamas.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 Dozens of Palestinians killed by Israeli airstrikes on Deir al-Balah school: An Israeli strike on a school-turned-shelter in Gaza's Deir el-Balah has claimed the lives of at least 28 people, while separate footage reveals the devastation of an Israeli attack on the al-Remal medical clinic in northern Gaza. Local health officials report that over 42,000 people, predominantly women and children, have been killed, with nearly 97,900 more injured since the conflict began. The relentless bombardment has displaced almost the entire population of Gaza, exacerbating shortages of food, clean water, and medical supplies under an ongoing blockade. Amid mounting international outcry, Israel now faces a genocide case at the International Court of Justice for its actions in Gaza.

2️⃣ 🇹🇼 🇨🇳 President Lai Ching-Te asserts Taiwanese sovereignty: Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te asserted on Thursday that China has no authority to represent Taiwan, emphasising that the two nations are not subordinate to one another. In his National Day speech, Lai highlighted that Taiwan, officially the Republic of China, is a thriving democracy and rejected Beijing’s claims over the island. “The Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People’s Republic of China are not subordinate to each other,” Lai declared. He reaffirmed Taiwan's sovereignty, vowing to resist any attempts at annexation or encroachment. Lai also called on China to meet global expectations, urging cooperation in ending conflicts like Russia's invasion of Ukraine and in addressing regional security issues. He expressed a willingness to work with Beijing on climate change, combating infectious diseases, and ensuring peace in the Taiwan Strait for the benefit of both sides.