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📰 Australia rejects advance commitment on Taiwan

📰 Australia rejects advance commitment on Taiwan

and fighting engulfs Suwayda

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
July 16, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

Today, U.S.-backed energy deals in Kurdistan defy Baghdad and reshape regional power balances, Cambodian lawmakers approve a law allowing citizenship revocation for political dissent, and the EU risks complicity in international law violations by pursuing a gas deal with Israel that draws on contested Palestinian waters.

Our lead story turns to the Indo-Pacific, where U.S. allies brace for Trump’s demands amid rising costs and eroding trust.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇺🇳 Sudanese Army retakes strategic town from RSF in North Kordofan: The Sudanese army and allied militias have recaptured Umm Sumayyah, a key area west of El-Obeid in North Kordofan, after fierce clashes with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Darfur Governor Minni Minnawi announced the victory, calling it a return of the territory “to the nation’s embrace.” A joint statement from pro-army factions described the battle as a “complete cleansing” of RSF forces. Earlier, the RSF had claimed control of the area. The UN’s International Organization for Migration reported that ongoing violence forced 675 families to flee nearby villages over the weekend. Fighting across North, West, and South Kordofan has intensified, as both sides seek to consolidate control in the broader battle for Sudan’s future.

2️⃣ 🇦🇺 🇺🇸 🇹🇼 🇨🇳 Australia rejects advance U.S. commitment on Taiwan conflict amid Aukus tensions: Australia has firmly rejected any advance commitment to join a potential US-led conflict with China over Taiwan, with Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy stressing that such decisions lie solely with the government of the day. Reports suggest Washington is pressuring Aukus partners, including Australia and Japan, for clarity on their roles in the event of war. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese echoed the stance, highlighting Australia's commitment to peace and the status quo on Taiwan. The response comes amid heightened scrutiny of the Aukus submarine pact and a strategic review led by US official Elbridge Colby. Albanese, currently in China for high-level talks, also rebuffed the idea of “strategic ambiguity” applying only to the US. Canberra emphasised sovereignty in defence matters and dismissed hypothetical military commitments, underscoring Aukus’ economic and deterrence benefits instead.

3️⃣ 🇸🇾 Massacres reported in Suwayda as government forces mount assault: Fierce fighting has gripped southern Syria for a third consecutive day, as eyewitnesses accuse government forces of executing civilians and looting homes in the Druze-majority city of Suwayda. The violence erupted Sunday between Druze militias and Bedouin tribes, prompting Damascus to deploy its security forces. Despite claims of a ceasefire, reports detail atrocities: nine people were gunned down in a local guesthouse; three brothers were executed before their mother; and a family of four burned alive as snipers targeted neighbours trying to help. In nearby villages, pro-government militias looted and torched shops. At least 72 civilians and 158 regime fighters are reported dead. Meanwhile, Israel has launched airstrikes around Suwayda, claiming to protect Druze civilians. Tel Aviv’s military intervention has fuelled speculation about broader regional ambitions following Assad’s ouster in late 2024.

4️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇲🇷 🇲🇱 🇨🇫 Cuts to USAID force WFP to halt food aid across West and Central Africa: The World Food Program (WFP) announced it is suspending food and nutritional aid in seven West and Central African countries due to severe funding shortfalls following U.S. President Donald Trump’s cuts to USAID and UN funding. Operations are already winding down in Mauritania, Mali, and the Central African Republic, with food stocks set to run out by September. Camps hosting Nigerian refugees in Cameroon have also seen drastic reductions. The WFP warns millions face immediate risk, including 300,000 Nigerian children at risk of severe malnutrition. In northern Nigeria alone, medical admissions surged 178% in recent months. Displaced communities in Mali have received no aid since June, while Chad and Niger face full aid suspension by year’s end. The WFP urgently requires $494 million to sustain operations and avert widespread instability in the region.

5️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇮🇱 Israel–Iran war exposes cracks in Tehran’s grand strategy and global miscalculations: In the words of regional analyst Ali Hashem, the battle for Iran 'has likely just begun.' Israel’s surprise air campaign against Iran last month—targeting top military officials and nuclear scientists—was launched days before nuclear talks with the U.S., aiming to destabilise Tehran and seize strategic momentum. The offensive marked a continuation of Israel’s war on the ‘Axis of Resistance’, following earlier decapitation strikes on Hamas and Hizbollah. After Israeli attacks, U.S. bombers struck Iran’s nuclear facilities, prompting a ceasefire many in Tehran suspect is merely a tactical pause before wider war. Iran’s belief in a shifting global order—bolstered by energy revenues and Western distraction in Ukraine—proved misguided. The Axis has since suffered major setbacks, including Syria’s collapse. Iran’s deterrence strategy, marred by poor readiness and misjudged alliances, is now under internal scrutiny, with renewed debate over offensive posture and nuclear capability as conflict reaches Iranian soil.

Major Story

🇺🇸 🇯🇵 🇦🇺 🇰🇷 🇵🇭 🇨🇳 INDO-PACIFIC ALLIES BRACE FOR TRUMP’S DEMANDS AMID RISING COSTS AND ERODING TRUST

At this week’s ASEAN summit, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio faced a sceptical audience of Indo-Pacific allies unsettled by new tariffs and rising defence demands. Once optimistic that their strategic value in the US–China rivalry would afford them preferential treatment, regional partners now face a stark reality: higher costs, greater pressure, and dwindling trust in American constancy. Despite initial goodwill in President Trump’s second term—warm meetings, high-level visits, and promises of strategic alignment—Washington’s expectations have intensified. Now, military and economic cooperation is judged through the singular lens of deterring China, even when it strains allies’ fiscal or domestic limits.

Rising Costs of Alliance

Key partners have publicly pushed back. Japan cancelled a high-level defence meeting, South Korea defended its military budget, and Australia rejected US pressure to increase spending to 5% of GDP. The Pentagon responded with a review of AUKUS and is reportedly asking allies to clarify their roles in any future Taiwan conflict. These demands echo NATO’s burden-sharing debates—but without NATO’s institutional support. The US is also linking defence to trade: allies are expected to comply with American economic restrictions on China, even as their own export economies are penalised by US tariffs.

Coordinated Response Needed

Chatham House analyst Kanishkh Kanodia writes that, for Indo-Pacific states, there is no strategic alternative to the US alliance—especially as Chinese assertiveness grows. But allies must begin assuming more responsibility for their defence, while simultaneously ensuring the US stays engaged. That means drawing up credible rearmament plans, deepening regional integration, and aligning strategically—without capitulating unconditionally.

Japan may be leading by example: increasing regional security assistance, training Indo-Pacific partners, and cooperating with Australia and the Philippines on naval upgrades.

Security, Not Certainty

The Trump administration’s volatile mix of high demands and limited assurances has eroded Indo-Pacific confidence. To maintain US support and deter China, regional allies must unify, adjust, and prepare to bear more of the burden—on their own terms.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 EU gas deal with Israel risks complicity in illegal use of Palestinian waters: The European Union’s ongoing gas imports from Israel may violate international law, according to research by Global Witness. The EMG pipeline, which carries Israeli gas to Egypt for export to Europe, allegedly crosses Palestinian maritime territory without the Palestinian Authority’s consent—a breach of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. Legal advice obtained by the NGO warns that EU purchases via this route could amount to complicity. The 2022 EU–Israel gas deal followed the bloc’s decision to stop buying Russian energy. As EU ministers consider sanctions over Israel’s actions in Gaza, the Commission’s own review cited Israeli violations of human rights, including indiscriminate attacks, the blockade, and destruction of Gaza’s healthcare system—all in breach of their binding 25-year association agreement.

2️⃣ 🇰🇭 Cambodian lawmakers approve law enabling revocation of citizenship for dissenters: Cambodia’s National Assembly has unanimously amended the constitution to permit stripping citizenship from individuals deemed to have colluded with foreign powers—drawing sharp criticism from human rights groups. The revised Article 33 now allows nationality to be “determined by law,” replacing a previous requirement for mutual agreement. Justice Minister Koeut Rith confirmed that a bill to enforce revocations would soon be introduced, stating, “If you betray the nation, the nation will not keep you.” Amnesty International warned the move risks silencing dissent and rendering political opponents stateless. The amendment follows former Prime Minister Hun Sen’s call to punish exiled critics—such as Sam Rainsy—who condemned the government’s handling of a border dispute with Thailand. Critics fear the new law will serve as a tool to suppress opposition and entrench authoritarian rule under the guise of national interest.

3️⃣ 🇮🇶 🇺🇸 Trump-backed energy deals in Kurdistan challenge Baghdad and shift Middle East power dynamics: The Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) multibillion-dollar gas deals with U.S. firms HKN Energy and WesternZagros mark a bold bid for economic autonomy, coinciding with a U.S. policy shift favouring Erbil over Baghdad. The agreements, signed during Prime Minister Masrour Barzani’s Washington visit, position Kurdistan as a potential regional energy hub and undermine Iranian influence in Sulaymaniyah. Yet they risk backlash: Baghdad has withheld budget transfers, militia attacks have surged, and Kurdish parties remain divided. The deals have reignited disputes over sovereignty, governance, and energy policy. While they may realign regional power and bolster U.S. strategic interests without direct intervention, success hinges on Kurdish political cohesion, legal clarity, and Washington’s sustained support amidst Baghdad’s opposition and Iraq’s volatile electoral politics.