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📰 Australia’s submarine crisis

📰 Australia’s submarine crisis

and Romania arrests coup suspects

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
March 07, 2025

Hello and welcome to Geopolitics Daily,

In today’s developments, BlackRock has acquired Panama Canal ports from a Hong Kong-based firm, Sudan has initiated a genocide case at the ICJ against the UAE over alleged ties to the Rapid Support Forces, and Republika Srpska’s Milorad Dodik is defying Bosnian prosecutors amid an escalating political crisis.

Today’s top story delves into the Arms Treaty and the Indo-Pacific, examining the region’s limited engagement and the implications for global arms regulation.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 China hawkish on U.S. trade war: China’s Foreign Ministry has issued its strongest warning yet against U.S. trade policies, vowing to resist Washington’s tariffs and any other form of confrontation. In response to President Donald Trump’s decision to impose an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods—raising total duties to 20%—spokesperson Lin Jian declared, “If the U.S. insists on a tariff war, trade war, or any other war, China will fight to the end.” China dismissed Trump’s attempts to link trade penalties to fentanyl-related issues, calling it a pretext for economic pressure. Beijing retaliated with tariffs of up to 15% on U.S. agricultural imports. The statement, shared widely by Chinese officials, comes as China hosts its annual “Two Sessions” political summit, typically a controlled event that avoids provocative rhetoric, signaling a more assertive stance amid rising tensions.

2️⃣ 🇸🇾 Assad loyalists carry out deadly raids in Latakia: Fighters loyal to former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad launched deadly attacks on security forces in Latakia, killing at least 16 personnel in one of the most significant assaults since Assad’s ousting. The clashes occurred in Jableh and surrounding areas, highlighting growing unrest in the Alawite-majority coastal province, now a key challenge for interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s government. State media confirmed the attacks, attributing them to remnants of Assad’s militias, while reports indicated Syrian forces responded with artillery and helicopter strikes. Meanwhile, Alawite leaders condemned the airstrikes, calling for peaceful protests. As Syria’s new administration seeks to eliminate Assad loyalists, tensions have escalated further in the southwest, where Israel has reinforced its presence, citing security concerns.

3️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 Trump threats undermine Israeli incentive to pursue ceasefire’s second phase, say Hamas: Hamas has accused U.S. President Trump of emboldening Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu to break the Gaza ceasefire and intensify restrictions on the enclave. Trump demanded on social media that Hamas release all hostages immediately, including the remains of deceased captives, warning that failure to comply would have severe consequences. His remarks coincided with reports that a Trump envoy had secretly met with Hamas, marking a significant departure from the long-standing U.S. policy of avoiding direct negotiations with the group. Meanwhile, Egypt and Qatar have continued mediating talks between Hamas and U.S. officials, with discussions reportedly focused on implementing the second phase of the ceasefire agreement. While Hamas insists on adhering to the original terms, Israel seeks to prolong the ceasefire to secure hostage releases without committing to an end to the war, further complicating diplomatic efforts.

4️⃣ 🇷🇴 🇷🇺 Romania makes arrests over alleged Russia-linked coup plot: Romanian authorities have arrested six individuals accused of attempting to overthrow the government with alleged Russian support, prosecutors announced. Among those targeted in the investigation is a 101-year-old former army major general, whose home was raided. The arrests coincided with Romania expelling the Russian embassy’s military attaché and his deputy for violating diplomatic protocols—a move to which Moscow vowed retaliation. According to Romanian intelligence services, the suspects aimed to destabilize the state by dismantling its constitutional framework, dissolving political parties, and forming a new government under their control. Authorities claim the group actively sought assistance from Russian embassy officials, two of whom were expelled for allegedly collecting strategic intelligence and supporting the plot. Russia’s Foreign Ministry dismissed the allegations as unfounded, accusing Bucharest of fabricating Russian involvement in its internal affairs.

5️⃣ 🇦🇺 🇺🇸 Strategic uncertainty and submarine shortfall puts Australia in Aukus dilemma: Australia’s ambitious Aukus submarine deal faces growing doubts as the U.S. struggles to meet its commitments. Originally, Australia was set to acquire U.S.-built Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines before transitioning to joint production with the UK. However, concerns are mounting that these submarines may never come under Australian control, potentially remaining U.S.-flagged and crewed. The U.S. shipbuilding industry is lagging, and the Trump administration’s prioritization of “America First” raises fears that Washington may retain the submarines for its own naval needs. This uncertainty leaves Australia at risk of becoming a forward operating base for U.S. power projection rather than an independent naval force.

Major Story

THE ARMS TRADE TREATY AND THE INDO-PACIFIC

The Arms Trade Treaty (ATT), adopted in 2013, was designed to regulate the global arms trade and prevent the illicit circulation of conventional weapons. Its objective is to establish international standards for arms transfers, promote security, and reduce human suffering. The Indo-Pacific region has demonstrated limited engagement with the Treaty, as only 11 states have signed and ratified it, while nine others have signed but not yet ratified. This limited participation contrasts with the region’s status as the world’s largest importer of arms and its growing role in arms production and exports.

Regional Security Dynamics and the Arms Trade

The Indo-Pacific is marked by longstanding tensions, including India-Pakistan hostilities, disputes in the South China Sea, and internal instability in Afghanistan and Myanmar. These conflicts have fueled military expansion and increased arms transfers. Countries including China, Australia, and South Korea are significant arms exporters, while others, including India and Pakistan, are major importers. The region also hosts key transit hubs, making ATT provisions on arms transfers particularly relevant. However, the illicit trade in small arms remains a persistent challenge, exacerbating internal conflicts and organized crime.

Barriers to ATT Adoption and Compliance

Several factors hinder broader ATT engagement in the region. First, national security concerns and skepticism about the Treaty’s effectiveness deter some states, particularly those with growing defense industries. Second, geopolitical rivalries, such as those between China and the U.S. or India and Pakistan, reinforce military buildups and create resistance to external regulations. Third, the region lacks strong regional organizations focused on arms control, making coordinated advocacy difficult. Finally, financial and bureaucratic limitations pose challenges for compliance, particularly for smaller states with limited capacity to meet reporting requirements.

Pathways for Greater Engagement

To enhance ATT participation, targeted efforts should focus on states demonstrating willingness to join while addressing concerns about security and defense industry interests. Strengthening regional dialogues and sub-regional cooperation can build trust and encourage broader participation. Donors and ATT stakeholders can assist by supporting capacity-building initiatives, improving regulatory frameworks, and increasing awareness of the Treaty’s benefits. According to the Toda Institute, engaging civil society, industry stakeholders, and regional think tanks can further promote informed decision-making and sustainable implementation. Addressing these challenges is essential for improving arms trade governance and contributing to long-term security in the Indo-Pacific.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇦🇪 🇺🇳 Sudan pursues genocide case against UAE for RSF links: The International Court of Justice (ICJ) announced that Sudan has filed a lawsuit against the United Arab Emirates (UAE), accusing it of violating the Genocide Convention through support for atrocities committed against the Masalit community in West Darfur. Sudan alleges that the UAE provided direct financial, political, and military backing to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and allied militias, enabling acts such as mass killings, forced displacement, and destruction of property. In its request, Sudan has asked the ICJ to impose urgent provisional measures, compelling the UAE to halt any actions that could contribute to genocide and prevent armed groups under its influence from committing further crimes. The case will receive priority under Article 74 of the court’s rules, signaling the gravity of the allegations and the potential for legal action against the UAE.

2️⃣ 🇧🇦 Republika Srpska’s Dodik defies Bosnian prosecutors as political crisis escalates: Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik has dismissed a summons from state prosecutors investigating him for allegedly threatening Bosnia’s constitutional order. The probe centers on his recent separatist laws, which strip Bosnia’s judiciary and police of authority in Republika Srpska. Dodik, who signed the laws in February, called the investigation a "political inquisition" and refused to comply. The move has heightened tensions in Bosnia, where officials warn the laws violate the Dayton Peace Agreement that binds Republika Srpska and the Muslim-Croat federation under shared institutions. Dodik, recently sentenced in absentia to a year in prison and banned from office, maintains the case is politically motivated. With fears of a confrontation between Serb and central Bosnian security forces, EU officials have intervened, while Dodik continues pushing his nationalist agenda.

3️⃣ 🇵🇦 🇺🇸 🇭🇰 BlackRock purchases Panama Canal ports from Hong Kong firm: A Hong Kong-based conglomerate has agreed to sell its stake in two Panama Canal ports to U.S. and Swiss investors, following mounting pressure from the Trump administration over concerns about Chinese influence. CK Hutchison, founded by billionaire Li Ka-shing, will transfer its controlling stake in a subsidiary that operates the ports to a consortium including U.S. asset manager BlackRock and Switzerland’s Mediterranean Shipping Company. President Donald Trump, who has claimed—without evidence—that China controls the canal, celebrated the sale as a strategic win, stating, “We’re taking it back.” The deal, valued at $22.8 billion, grants the consortium an 80% stake in Hutchison Ports and 90% of Panama Ports, which manages key terminals at both ends of the canal. Despite Trump’s rhetoric, CK Hutchison insists the transaction is purely commercial and unrelated to political tensions.