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📰 Baltic cable sabotage

📰 Baltic cable sabotage

and Turkish warning

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
December 27, 2024

Hello and welcome back.

In the Baltic Sea, a cable linking Finland and Estonia is suspected to have been sabotaged, while in Mozambique, escalating post-election protests have left dozens dead.

Syria once again dominates the headlines, with Turkish proxies clashing with Kurdish armed groups in the country's northeast. Meanwhile, the main story highlights the strategic setback Beijing faces following Assad’s downfall.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇸🇩 Controversial amnesty offered to Sudan’s RSF as armed groups proliferate: Sudan’s Sennar state is grappling with rising tensions driven by armed groups and a contentious amnesty for surrendering Rapid Support Forces (RSF) fighters. Since the Sudanese army regained control in October, at least three armed factions have emerged, claiming to protect the area but facing allegations of looting and violence. The recent arrival of RSF leaders Mirghani Hafeira and Qamar al-Dawla al-Amin—accused of crimes against humanity—has sparked outrage among local communities. Residents and tribal leaders demand justice, calling the amnesty and public reception of the fighters a betrayal. Amid escalating weapons proliferation and fragile stability, the situation underscores the volatile path Sudan faces in its pursuit of peace.

2️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Zelenskyy steps up efforts for Ukraine’s NATO accession: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told diplomats that Ukraine must actively push for NATO membership, describing the goal as achievable despite the need for strong security guarantees against Russia. He reiterated that NATO offers Ukraine the best protection, stressing that European support alone is insufficient without U.S. involvement. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened further destruction following a drone attack on Kazan, blaming Kyiv and warning of escalated retaliation. As the war intensifies, Zelenskyy remains adamant that NATO or equivalent guarantees are essential to prevent future Russian aggression, while Putin signals readiness to expand strikes targeting Ukraine’s infrastructure.

3️⃣ 🇹🇷 🇸🇾 Turkish proxy clashes with Kurdish armed groups in Syria’s northeast: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has warned on that Kurdish militias in Syria must either disarm or face destruction by Turkish forces. His comments coincide with ongoing clashes between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Türkiye-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), which includes extremist factions. Ankara’s military operations killed 21 Kurdish fighters this week, with Erdogan vowing continued offensives. The SDF, primarily composed of YPG fighters, faces Turkish pressure due to its links to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a group Türkiye considers a terrorist organization. Meanwhile, Ankara has initiated dialogue with Syria’s new leadership, signaling potential constitutional negotiations as Turkish troops amass along the border, raising fears of further escalation.

4️⃣ 🇫🇮 🇪🇪 Possible sabotage of Finland–Estonia Baltic Sea cable: An undersea power cable linking Finland and Estonia suffered an outage on Wednesday, raising fresh concerns over Baltic infrastructure security. Finnish officials have not ruled out sabotage, though Prime Minister Petteri Orpo assured the outage would not disrupt electricity supplies. The incident follows similar disruptions to telecom cables linking Sweden, Denmark, and Lithuania, with suspicions previously directed at Chinese vessels operating in the area. European officials have suggested potential links to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, though the Kremlin denies involvement. Investigations are ongoing as tensions in the region remain high, particularly following the 2022 Nord Stream pipeline explosions and the 2023 gas pipeline damage between Finland and Estonia.

5️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Possible Gaza ceasefire deal suffers another setback: Israel and Hamas blamed each other for obstructing ceasefire talks, despite supposedly edging closer to a potential deal to end the 14-month conflict in Gaza. Progress towards securing the release of hostages held in Gaza has been made, but previous negotiations have collapsed at critical moments. Key disagreements persist over exchanging Israeli hostages for Palestinian hostages and the withdrawal of Israeli forces. Hamas accused Israel of adding new demands around troop withdrawal and prisoner exchanges, delaying the process, while Israel’s negotiators returned from Qatar for further internal discussions after a week of significant dialogue.

Major Story

🇨🇳 🇸🇾 CHINA’S STRATEGIC DILEMMA IN A POST-ASSAD SYRIA

The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime, ending decades of authoritarian rule in Syria, marks a turning point for Middle Eastern geopolitics. While Türkiye, the U.S., and Israel eye emerging opportunities, Iran and Russia face significant setbacks. For China, Assad’s ouster represents a symbolic loss, but Beijing's adaptable approach may open new doors in the evolving landscape.

A Limited Partnership

Despite China’s 2023 strategic partnership with Assad, Beijing's engagement with Syria has historically been more diplomatic than military. Unlike Iran and Russia, China lacked deep entrenchment in Syria’s defence affairs, focusing instead on economic ties and symbolic alignment. Syria’s minimal economic role—contributing under $2 million in exports to China in 2022—means Assad’s fall disrupts Chinese interests only marginally. Moreover, Beijing’s diversified relations across the Gulf and Levant mitigate broader risks.

Post-Assad Opportunities and Risks

Türkiye’s strengthened influence in Syria could benefit China, aligning with Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Ankara’s active role in Syria’s reconstruction presents avenues for Chinese firms to participate in infrastructure projects. However, security risks linger. The Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP), an Uyghur militant group, has signalled intentions to shift focus toward Xinjiang, posing potential strains on Türkiye-China ties and prompting Chinese counterterrorism concerns.

Strategic Outlook

While Syria's strategic location remains relevant, China’s reliance on Middle Eastern oil, primarily from Saudi Arabia and Iraq, diminishes the urgency of deeper Syrian engagement. Beijing's response to Assad's fall underscores its broader strategy—prioritising economic expansion and regional stability over political entanglement. By leveraging Türkiye’s role and fostering economic cooperation, China can maintain influence without significant recalibration. Ultimately, Assad’s collapse may shift regional alignments, but China’s pragmatic, economy-driven approach ensures its long-term interests remain intact.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇲🇿 Dozens killed in Mozambique riots: A deadly prison riot in Maputo, Mozambique claimed 33 lives and injured 15, authorities confirmed. The violence erupted at a maximum-security prison in the capital, where around 1,530 inmates escaped; 150 have since been recaptured. While police blamed external protests for fueling the unrest, the justice minister stated the riot began internally, unrelated to outside demonstrations. The incident coincides with growing unrest following October’s contested election, which upheld Frelimo’s rule despite opposition claims of fraud.