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📰 Baltic sabotage fears

📰 Baltic sabotage fears

and NATO weighs its next move

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
November 29, 2024

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Hello and welcome back.

In the past 24 hours, violence has erupted in northern Syria between militants and the Syrian military, Namibian voters have cast their ballots, and Sweden has warned that the Baltic Sea has become a "high-risk" zone following the suspected sabotage of two undersea fibre optic cables—allegedly involving Chinese actors.

Today's top story focuses on Russia's ongoing hybrid warfare activities, which could eventually prompt NATO to consider invoking Article 5 of the mutual defence clause, according to Germany's intelligence chief.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇵🇰 Pakistan ends Islamabad lockdown as protests disperse: Supporters of Imran Khan, Pakistan’s most popular political figure, vacated central Islamabad on Wednesday, November 27, leaving behind debris and wreckage from clashes the previous night. Security forces had launched a nighttime crackdown to disperse demonstrators backing the former prime minister, imprisoned since August 2023 and facing numerous charges for challenging military authority. PTI lawmaker Faisal Amin Khan Gandapur accused authorities of firing live bullets at unarmed protesters, resulting in injuries and deaths, though exact figures remain unclear. Despite government bans, thousands marched from PTI strongholds, overcoming roadblocks to reach the capital by Tuesday morning.

2️⃣ 🇲🇲 International Criminal Court issues arrest warrant for Myanmar junta leader: The ICC has requested an arrest warrant for Myanmar’s military leader, Min Aung Hlaing, accusing him of crimes against humanity. Following an extensive investigation, the court asserted that the junta chief bears responsibility for the deportation and persecution of the Rohingya, acts committed in Myanmar and partly in Bangladesh. A panel of ICC judges will now decide on the warrant, with further applications anticipated. Rohingya activist Tun Khin welcomed this as a “huge step forward,” marking progress toward accountability after the 2017 military campaign that drove over 700,000 Rohingya to Bangladesh amid allegations of genocide. The Rohingya remain in dire circumstances, with nearly a million in precarious refugee camps in Bangladesh and those in Myanmar still facing violence from both the military and other armed groups like the Arakan Army.

3️⃣ 🇸🇪 🇩🇰 🇨🇳 Suspected cable sabotage in Baltic Sea: Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson has warned that the Baltic Sea is now a “high-risk” zone after suspected sabotage severed two undersea fibre optic cables. While investigations are ongoing, a Chinese ship, the Yi Peng 3, was in the area at the time and remains anchored in the Kattegat Strait, though China denies any involvement. Speaking from Harpsund, Kristersson stressed the need for caution, noting, “We cannot yet confirm sabotage but are treating the matter seriously.” Earlier, Sweden blocked 13 Baltic offshore wind farms over security concerns, though Kristersson dismissed any connection to the cable incidents.

4️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 Lebanese Army deployed to South Lebanon: After the ceasefire between Israel and Hizbollah took effect, thousands of Lebanese returned to homes damaged by months of air strikes. In Beirut’s southern suburbs, roads were congested with returnees, many celebrating Hizbollah’s "victory." However, unease remained about Lebanon’s fragile internal situation, as the agreement’s unclear provisions left room for exploitation by political factions. Lebanese officials warned that while the external threat from Israel subsides, the real challenges lie ahead in ensuring the deal's success.

5️⃣ 🇲🇽 🇺🇸 ‘Migrant caravans’ no longer arriving in U.S., says Mexico: Mexico's Ministry of Foreign Affairs released a statement asserting that "migrant caravans do not reach the northern border." The announcement followed a phone conversation between U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, during which both leaders shared their conclusions. In response to Trump’s claim that Sheinbaum pledged to close the border to stem migration, the statement highlighted Mexico’s efforts to manage the caravans within its territory. It further emphasized that the government is addressing the issue efficiently through inter-agency coordination, while upholding its commitment to protecting the human rights of migrants. The ministry confirmed that Sheinbaum outlined these measures to Trump during their recent discussion.

Major Story

🇷🇺 🇺🇦 🇧🇪 COULD RUSSIA’S HYBRID WAR SEE NATO INVOKE ARTICLE 5?

Russia’s ongoing hybrid warfare activities may eventually compel NATO to consider invoking its Article 5 mutual defence clause, according to Bruno Kahl, head of Germany's foreign intelligence service (BND). Under Article 5, if a Nato member comes under attack, the other members of the alliance are obliged to help it respond. Speaking at a think tank event in Berlin, Kahl highlighted the increasing risks of Russia’s hybrid tactics, including cyberattacks and sabotage, which could threaten Western targets. These activities, which Russia consistently denies, may eventually prompt NATO to act under its collective defence obligation.

Potential Military Confrontation

Kahl also warned that Russia's military capabilities could pose a direct threat to NATO by the end of the decade. Moscow’s battle-tested forces, combined with advances in drone warfare, present a heightened threat to the alliance. While there are no current indications of an impending war, Kahl noted that Russia could test NATO’s resolve by targeting specific member states, especially through covert operations like the use of "little green men" in the Baltics or the Arctic.

Strategic Objectives

Rather than seeking large territorial gains, Kahl suggested that Russia’s objective would likely be to weaken NATO’s unity and question the effectiveness of Article 5. If Russia can provoke an attack without triggering a NATO response, it would undermine the alliance's deterrence and collective security framework. The risk of such a confrontation remains a critical concern for NATO's long-term strategy.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇳🇦 Namibia goes to the polls: Thousands of Namibians lined up to cast their votes in pivotal presidential and legislative elections, with logistical delays postponing the scheduled poll closure. The election marks a critical moment as the ruling party, SWAPO, faces its toughest challenge in 34 years since Namibia gained independence from South African rule. Representing SWAPO is Vice President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, who could become Namibia and the region’s first female leader. Rooted in the country’s independence struggle, SWAPO's legacy is being tested like never before.

2️⃣ 🇸🇾 Dozens killed as militants and Syrian military clash in Aleppo: Dozens of Syrian soldiers and rebel fighters have died in northern Aleppo province, where Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allies reportedly seized at least 10 areas from forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported nearly 100 fatalities in clashes sparked by an HTS offensive, with 44 HTS fighters and 16 allied members killed. Additionally, 37 regime troops, including four officers, were killed, with five captured, and weapons, vehicles, and equipment seized by the rebels. The fighting also resulted in civilian casualties as regime forces launched hundreds of shells and missiles on civil and military targets.