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📰 Bangladesh indicts Hasina

📰 Bangladesh indicts Hasina

and Von der Leyen survives confidence vote

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
July 11, 2025

Hello and welcome to Geopolitics Daily,

Saudi Arabia eyes entry into UK–Japan–Italy stealth fighter programme; in Somalia, Al-Shabaab recaptures Moqokori as federal forces falter across Hirshabelle; and Israel’s Rafael unveils new laser defences as AI signals the decline of drone supremacy.

Our top story turns to East Asia, where Japan advances naval materiel transfers to Philippines amid China tensions.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇮🇷 🇮🇱 China’s regional standing suffers setback after Iran-Israel war: At the 6–7 July BRICS summit in Rio, Middle East tensions dominated discussions, with a joint statement condemning attacks on Iran and urging an end to regional violence—implicitly criticising the US and Israel. China echoed this stance, co-sponsoring a UN resolution for a ceasefire and warning of the economic risks of a prolonged war, especially to oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz. However, Beijing’s response remained strictly rhetorical. Despite speculation over future arms transfers, China has avoided providing Iran with material support, wary of Tehran’s weakness and unwilling to damage ties with the West. While China’s balancing act preserves economic interests, it also highlights its geopolitical limits. The 12-day war revealed that despite its ambitions, China remains reluctant to assert real influence in the Middle East’s most volatile crises.

2️⃣ 🇧🇩 Sheikh Hasina indicted for crimes against humanity by Bangladesh as interim government targets former regime: Bangladesh’s ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has been formally indicted for crimes against humanity over a violent crackdown on anti-government protests in July 2024 that left over 1,400 dead. Charged in absentia by a three-judge panel, Hasina—now in hiding in India—faces five counts, including masterminding mass killings and arbitrary arrests during her 15-year rule. Former interior minister Asaduzzaman Khan and ex-police chief Chowdhury Abdullah al-Mamun were also indicted; al-Mamun has reportedly agreed to testify. Her Awami League party dismissed the tribunal, ironically established by Hasina in 2009, as politically motivated. Interim leader Muhammad Yunus condemned India’s refusal to extradite her and pledged elections by April 2026, excluding the Awami League from participation.

3️⃣ 🇹🇷 🇪🇹 🇸🇴 Ankara mediation collapses as Ethiopia insists Somaliland deal is existential: Turkey’s bid to mediate the Somalia-Ethiopia dispute over Ethiopia’s deal with Somaliland has collapsed, according to intelligence sources. The Ankara-led process—launched in early 2024—sought to defuse tensions following Addis Ababa’s controversial agreement granting it access to Somaliland’s coast. Somalia condemned the deal as a violation of sovereignty, triggering months of failed talks. Despite a provisional declaration in December pledging mutual respect for territorial integrity, technical talks broke down in February and have not resumed. Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed reignited tensions in July, reiterating that sea access is “existential.” Meanwhile, Egypt has increased support to Somalia, fuelling geopolitical rivalry. Somaliland insists Mogadishu’s approval is unnecessary, while Somalia warns any unilateral deal risks conflict. With no clear successor to Turkey’s mediation, regional volatility looms over the Red Sea corridor.

4️⃣ 🇪🇺 Von der Leyen’s confidence vote survival exposes fragility and fuels EU power politics: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen comfortably survived a no-confidence vote on Thursday, defeating a far-right-led challenge with solid support from EU lawmakers. Yet the vote marks a turning point. To avoid abstentions from her Socialist allies, von der Leyen made major concessions and was forced to publicly defend herself over the “Pfizergate” scandal. Her vulnerability has emboldened rivals and exposed how little it takes—just 72 signatures—to force a vote. Future threats may come not from the far right, but from a resurgent Left-Green bloc frustrated by her retreat from the Green Deal. Perhaps most significantly, the vote taught Parliament that noisy threats weigh heavier than quiet diplomacy. For von der Leyen, Politico writes, this may mark the true start of her second term—one defined less by consensus than by raw political leverage.

5️⃣ 🇮🇩 Prabowo’s populist pivot strains Indonesia’s economy amid global and domestic pressures: Indonesia failed to secure a reduction in its 32% US tariff rate, deepening economic strains already exacerbated by weak fundamentals and President Prabowo Subianto’s populist policymaking. The Rupiah hit lows not seen since the Asian Financial Crisis after President Trump’s tariff announcement, and Indonesia’s markets remain among the region’s worst performers. Prabowo’s “Danantara” sovereign wealth fund centralises control under the presidency and sidelines technocratic oversight, triggering investor concerns. Costly populist programmes and their rushed implementation, such as relaxed rules allowing military officers into civilian roles, signal a rollback of Reformasi-era norms. With softening consumer sentiment, rising layoffs, and one of the world’s lowest tax-to-GDP ratios, economic pressures are mounting, according to the Lowy Institute. Stimulus efforts remain poorly targeted. Prabowo’s high-risk, centralised approach—combined with external shocks—leaves little room for error as growth ambitions outpace delivery.

Major Story

🇯🇵 🇵🇭 🇨🇳 JAPAN ADVANCES ABUKAMA-CLASS WARSHIP TRANSFER TO PHILIPPINES AMID CHINA TENSIONS

As of July 2025, Japan is preparing to transfer all six decommissioned Abukuma-class destroyer escorts from the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) to the Philippine Navy (PN). These vessels, being replaced by the Mogami-class frigates, are slated for handover pending inspection by Philippine crews. The ships will likely be delivered under a “joint development project” to comply with Japan’s export regulations, allowing the Philippines to refit them to suit its maritime defence needs.

The PN, currently operating a limited number of frigates and corvettes, views this transfer as a critical stopgap until new vessels arrive from South Korea. The Abukuma-class destroyers would enhance patrol and surveillance missions in the contested South China Sea, where both Japan and the Philippines face maritime disputes with China.

Deepening Japan–Philippines Defence Ties

The potential transfer is part of broader security cooperation between the two nations. Following the 2024 signing of the Philippines–Japan Reciprocal Access Agreement (PJRAA), both sides agreed on radar donations, intelligence sharing, and joint training exercises. In June 2025, they began negotiating an Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA), aiming to formalise logistical and operational collaboration between their armed forces.

A New Chapter in Japan’s Arms Exports

The Abukuma deal reflects Japan’s expanding regional role and efforts to bolster defence partnerships in the Indo-Pacific. It also gives Tokyo’s defence sector valuable export experience, as Japan continues to pursue contracts abroad—including ongoing bids to supply Mogami-class frigates to Australia. The transfer not only strengthens Philippine maritime capabilities but also signals Japan’s growing willingness to act as a security contributor in regional flashpoints.

If finalised, this would mark a significant step in Japan’s evolving defence diplomacy and support Manila’s capacity-building efforts amid a volatile strategic environment.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇸🇴 🇺🇳 Al-Shabaab retakes Moqokori as federal forces falter across Hirshabelle: On 7 July, Al-Shabaab captured Moqokori in Somalia’s Hiraan region, marking a significant reversal for the federal government and Hawadle clan militias, which had reclaimed the town in a 2022–23 offensive. Strategically located at key crossroads, Moqokori now offers Al-Shabaab a base for further advances and signals the group’s resilience, even on hostile clan turf. The militants launched a surprise assault with a suicide car bomb, then overran the town, claiming to have killed over 40 defenders. The fall is part of a broader trend: since early 2025, the government has steadily lost ground across Hiraan and Middle Shabelle amid political infighting, weak military coordination, and a distracted AU peacekeeping mission. Donors of the Mission cite frustration with domestic Somali political constraints and infighting. While major cities remain under state control, Al-Shabaab’s rural resurgence underscores the fragility of recent gains.

2️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Rafael reveals laser defences as AI marks the end of drone supremacy: Rafael Advanced Defense Systems recently confirmed the battlefield deployment of high-powered lasers under its secretive Iron Lite program, intercepting numerous aerial threats. This, alongside a surge in global counter-drone technologies, signals the end of drones’ brief dominance in modern warfare. Once seen as transformative—as in Ukraine’s early use of cheap drones to disrupt Russian forces—offensive drones now face effective defences, from camouflage and jamming to drone-on-drone AI combat. As demand for countermeasures grows, overlapping AI-enabled systems and scalable technologies like ground-based lasers are proving more sustainable than costly traditional responses. While drones remain essential, especially in Ukraine, they now form just one part of a broader arsenal. As former U.S. brigadier general Mark T. Kimmitt writes, their era of battlefield supremacy has passed—like the longbow or the bomber, they’re no longer invincible, merely indispensable.

3️⃣ 🇸🇦 🇬🇧 🇯🇵 🇮🇹 Saudi Arabia seeks entry into UK-Japan-Italy stealth fighter programme: Saudi Arabia is positioning itself to join the UK, Japan, and Italy’s Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), which is developing a sixth-generation stealth fighter to replace ageing Eurofighter and Mitsubishi jets. While Riyadh’s involvement is not ruled out, partner nations insist key conditions—such as technology-sharing and prior experience—must be met first. The Tempest, the UK’s iteration of the aircraft, is expected to enter service by 2035, with prototype testing slated within two to three years. Some resistance exists, including concerns from British firms about protecting sensitive defence technologies. Saudi Arabia's potential entry aligns with its Vision 2030 goals to build a robust domestic defence sector. Since 2017, the kingdom has expanded production via SAMI, manufacturing drones and launching one of the world’s largest munitions plants to reduce reliance on foreign arms imports.