Hello and welcome back. 

From the Sahel, Chad’s courts sentenced the former prime minister to 20 years in prison over charges linked to a massacre, while in Ivory Coast, opposition forces rally against President Ouattara’s bid for a fourth term. In East Asia, Beijing has frozen relations with the Czech president after his meeting with the Dalai Lama, and South Korea confronts troop shortages as its population decline accelerates.

Today’s focus shifts to the Philippines, where Manila accelerates military modernisation to counter China while balancing diplomacy.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇲🇲 UN probe reveals Myanmar junta’s systematic detention of children: Children as young as two have been imprisoned in Myanmar—often as stand-ins for parents targeted by the junta—facing abuse including torture, the UN’s Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar (IIMM) reported. The body, tasked with collecting evidence for future prosecutions, documented escalating atrocities between July 2024 and June 2025, with nearly 30,000 people detained since the February 2021 coup. Evidence shows systematic torture in prisons, sometimes leading to deaths. Investigators have identified both direct perpetrators and senior commanders, as well as those responsible for summary executions. The IIMM warned that a severe funding crisis—compounded by US aid cuts, UN budget shortfalls, and a 20% planned staff reduction—threatens its ability to gather and analyse evidence. Head Nicholas Koumjian stressed the need for sustained international commitment, saying accountability in Myanmar would set an example globally.

2️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇵🇦 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 Beijing, Washington clash at UN over Panama canal, South China Sea: China and the United States clashed at a UN meeting chaired by Panama’s President José Raúl Mulino, trading accusations over influence in the Panama Canal and maritime tensions in the South China Sea. Beijing’s UN envoy Fu Cong defended Panama’s sovereignty over the canal and accused Washington of fabricating “lies” to justify seeking control, calling the US the “biggest disrupter” of regional stability. Acting US ambassador Dorothy Shea warned of China’s “outsized influence” in canal infrastructure and linked Beijing’s actions to broader maritime threats. The dispute comes amid Washington’s push to remove Chinese-linked operators from key ports, stalling CK Hutchison’s US$22.8 billion sale. Both sides also exchanged sharp words over military activity in the South China Sea, underscoring escalating strategic frictions.

3️⃣ 🇨🇴 Colombian presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe dies after campaign shooting: Colombian senator Miguel Uribe Turbay, 39, has died nine weeks after being shot in the head during a June campaign event, his family confirmed. The opposition candidate from the right-wing Centro Democrático party had been seeking his party’s 2026 presidential nomination. Six suspects have been arrested, including a teenage gunman who claimed he was paid by a local drug dealer. Authorities are pursuing the attack’s “intellectual authors,” with international assistance and a 3bn peso reward offered. Uribe’s killing is Colombia’s highest profile political assassination in two decades, stirring fears of a return to the violence that plagued its politics in the late 20th century. The Harvard-educated lawyer, grandson of former President Julio César Turbay Ayala and son of journalist Diana Turbay—killed by the Medellín cartel in 1991—was known for his hardline stance on armed groups and sharp criticism of President Gustavo Petro. Analysts warn his death deepens uncertainty ahead of the 2026 elections.

4️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Zelenskyy rejects Donbas-for-truce proposal ahead of Trump–Putin talks: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has ruled out ceding the Donbas region to Russia as part of a ceasefire deal, days before U.S. President Donald Trump meets Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska to discuss ending the war. Trump has floated “land swapping” as part of a settlement, with U.S. officials reportedly considering offering Donbas in exchange for halting Russia’s southern offensive. Zelenskyy warned that relinquishing the region would hand Moscow a “bridgehead” for future offensives into Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, and Kharkiv. He dismissed territorial exchanges as “real estate deals” divorced from security guarantees, insisting any agreement must protect Ukraine’s sovereignty. While supporting swift peace efforts, he said talks excluding Kyiv “will not be accepted” and urged Trump to push for a ceasefire and tougher sanctions on Russia.

5️⃣ 🇹🇩 Chad court jails ex-premier Succes Masra for 20 years over massacre charges: A court in N’Djamena has sentenced former prime minister and opposition leader Succes Masra to 20 years in prison for hate speech, xenophobia, and inciting a May 14 massacre that killed 42 people, mostly women and children, in Mandakao. Prosecutors alleged Masra’s rhetoric fuelled intercommunal clashes between Fulani herders and Ngambaye farmers, part of a wider pastoralist–farmer conflict that has claimed over 1,000 lives since 2021, according to Crisis Group. Defence lawyers denounced the verdict as politically motivated and lacking evidence, accusing authorities of weaponising the judiciary. Masra, who returned from exile under a 2024 amnesty, briefly served as prime minister before losing the 2024 election to President Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno. Nearly 70 others were tried alongside him for roles in the violence.

Major Story

🇵🇭 🇨🇳 PHILIPPINES ACCELERATES MILITARY MODERNISATION TO COUNTER CHINA WHILE BALANCING DIPLOMACY

Under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the Philippines is undergoing its most significant military transformation in decades, pivoting from domestic counter-insurgency to external territorial defence. Years of focus on internal threats—Maoist rebels and the Moro conflict—are giving way to concerns over China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea and the potential for conflict over Taiwan. With internal insurgencies largely subdued, Manila now has space to retool its armed forces for maritime and air defence, acquiring modern aircraft, missile systems, and naval assets.

Strengthening Alliances and Partnerships

A key pillar of this strategy is deepening defence ties, foremost with the U.S. under the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty. Marcos has expanded U.S. access to Philippine bases, particularly in northern Luzon and Palawan, locations that could prove critical in a Taiwan contingency. While the Biden administration clarified some red lines regarding Chinese actions, uncertainty under Trump’s second term lingers. Manila is also hedging by expanding ties with other partners to reduce reliance on Washington and bolster regional deterrence.

Challenges in Procurement and Capabilities

Despite progress, procurement remains slow, funding limited, and the domestic defence industry weak. Acquisition plans often prioritise costly platforms like submarines over more agile, asymmetric systems better suited for countering Chinese “grey zone” tactics. The Philippines’ deterrent capability depends not only on hardware but also on improving joint operations, accelerating procurement, and integrating modern technologies into its defence posture.

Balancing Deterrence and Diplomacy

To balance military preparedness with risk management, Marcos’ strategy would require strengthening crisis communication channels with Beijing to avoid escalation, calibrating responses to Chinese provocations, and keeping cooperation with Taipei discreet. The aim is to deter aggression without inviting confrontation, preserving space for diplomacy while securing national sovereignty in contested waters.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast opposition rallies against Ouattara’s fourth-term bid: Thousands gathered in Abidjan’s Yopougon district, demanding electoral reforms and denouncing President Alassane Ouattara’s decision to seek a fourth term. Protesters carried banners declaring “No true democracy without true justice” and voiced support for barred opposition leaders Laurent Gbagbo and Tidjane Thiam. Both were excluded from October’s presidential race by the electoral commission — Gbagbo over legal restrictions and Thiam on nationality grounds — prompting opposition parties to unite against Ouattara. Critics accuse the president of undermining term limits after a 2016 constitutional change removed them, echoing trends among other West African leaders. The government has yet to comment, but Ouattara insists his leadership is vital amid rising jihadist threats from the Sahel and mounting economic pressures.

2️⃣ 🇰🇷 South Korea faces troop shortages as population decline accelerates: South Korea’s armed forces have contracted by 20% in six years, with troop numbers falling from about 690,000 in the early 2000s to 450,000 today. The defence ministry warns the shrinking pool of conscription-age men—down 30% since 2019 to just 230,000—threatens operational readiness, with a 50,000-strong manpower gap, particularly among non-commissioned officers. The decline stems from the world’s lowest fertility rate (0.75 in 2024) and a rapidly ageing society, with the population projected to fall from 51.8 million in 2020 to 36.2 million by 2072. While shorter service periods and advanced capabilities offset some pressure, North Korea retains a force of 1.2 million. The ministry cautions that demographic trends could severely test South Korea’s defence posture despite its $33bn annual military budget and U.S. alliance.

3️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇨🇿 China cuts ties with Czech president over Dalai Lama meeting: Beijing has suspended all contact with Czech President Petr Pavel after he met the Dalai Lama during a private trip to India in July to mark the Tibetan spiritual leader’s 90th birthday. China’s Foreign Ministry accused Pavel of violating prior political commitments, harming China’s sovereignty, and engaging in a “provocative action,” citing its view of the Dalai Lama as a separatist. The move marks another flashpoint in strained relations, following Pavel’s 2023 call with Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen. China does not recognise Tibet’s government-in-exile and regards the region as part of its territory. The Dalai Lama, who lives in exile in India, has said he hopes to live beyond 130 years.

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Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics