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Former Pakistani prime minister Imran Khan is sentenced to 17 years by a Pakistani court, Israeli ceasefire violations imperil the next phase of Gaza negotiations, and Jordan joins US-led airstrikes against IS in southern Syria.

Our lead analysis examines missile tests, research ships, and rising nuclear risk in the Indian Ocean.

 More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇻🇪 US seizes second Venezuelan merchant vessel: US forces have illegally seized a second oil tanker carrying Venezuelan crude in international waters, escalating Washington’s blockade by intercepting a vessel not previously listed under US sanctions. The move, which follows an earlier tanker seizure this month, sharpens tensions with Caracas as the Trump administration signals that any ship transporting Venezuelan oil could be targeted.

2️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇮🇱 Israel expands military footprint in southern Syria: Israeli forces have pushed further into Syria’s Quneitra governorate beyond the occupied Golan Heights, establishing new military checkpoints in villages near Ain Ziwan and al-Ajraf. The move follows months of near-daily Israeli incursions, arrests, and land clearances in southern Syria, Damascus denounces as illegal.

3️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 UN Security Council demands Rwanda withdraw from eastern DRC: The UN Security Council has called on Rwanda to pull its forces from eastern Congo, condemned Kigali’s backing of the M23 rebellion, and renewed the MONUSCO peacekeeping mission for another year amid escalating violence. Kinshasa has disputed M23 claims of withdrawal from Uvira and warns the rebel presence continues to fuel one of the world’s worst displacement crises.

4️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 🇪🇺 Moscow dismisses revised Ukraine peace proposals: Putin’s chief foreign policy adviser has rejected amendments proposed by Ukraine and European states to a US-backed framework for ending the war, arguing they reduce the chances of a durable peace. The remarks underscore Moscow’s resistance to efforts to reshape the talks from the US proposal, even as parallel diplomatic engagements continue.

5️⃣ 🇹🇭 🇰🇭 🇲🇾 Beijing, Washington push for renewed Thailand and Cambodia ceasefire: China and the US are separately pressing Thailand and Cambodia to de-escalate and revive a ceasefire ahead of an emergency ASEAN meeting, as the worst fighting between the neighbours in years has killed around 60 people and displaced nearly a million people. Washington and Beijing have both engaged senior officials in Bangkok and Phnom Penh, with ASEAN leaders cautiously optimistic that talks in Kuala Lumpur could halt clashes along the disputed border.

Major Story

🇮🇳 🇨🇳 MISSILE TESTS, RESEARCH SHIPS, AND RISING NUCLEAR RISK IN THE INDIAN OCEAN

In early December, India issued a series of shifting Notices to Airmen (NOTAMs announcing a long-range missile test over the Indian Ocean. The repeated expansion, contraction, and postponement of the danger zones — at times exceeding 3,500 kilometres — strongly suggested preparations for a test of the nuclear-capable K-4 submarine-launched ballistic missile. At the same time, China deployed multiple research vessels across the Indian Ocean, platforms widely believed to possess sensors capable of tracking missile activity. The overlap has fuelled speculation that India’s delays reflect unease over Chinese surveillance, highlighting a sharper phase of strategic interaction between two nuclear powers.

China as risk amplifier, not sole driver

China’s growing Indian Ocean presence is often framed as evidence of a coherent militarisation strategy. In reality, Beijing’s activities remain fragmented, driven by a mix of commercial actors, state-owned enterprises, and the PLA Navy rather than a single grand design. Still, research ships, port investments, and logistics hubs occupy an ambiguous space between civilian and military use, amplifying regional anxieties even in the absence of explicit basing. China’s footprint therefore heightens risk, but it is not the primary source of instability.

A crowded and nuclearised maritime theatre

The Indian Ocean is increasingly congested with nuclear-capable states and overlapping security agendas. In 2025 alone, Iran threatened strikes near the Chagos Archipelago, China conducted live-fire drills off Australia, the United States interdicted arms shipments bound for Iran, and India and Pakistan openly clashed, with New Delhi deploying a carrier group into the Arabian Sea. France maintains permanent forces in the region, while Russian nuclear submarines transit its waters. These intersecting dynamics compress decision-making time and raise the danger of miscalculation.

Managing escalation, not rivalry

The core challenge is not eliminating competition, but preventing accidents from spiralling into crises. The Indian Ocean lacks robust incident-prevention and crisis-communication frameworks, particularly for dual-use vessels, submarines, and missile tests conducted far from national coastlines. Expanding navy-to-navy communication channels and adapting incident-at-sea agreements to regional realities would help reduce escalation risks, writes Chatham House. Without such measures, deterrence signalling may unintentionally create the very crises it seeks to avert.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇵🇰 Pakistan sentences former PM, Imran Khan, to 17 years in prison: Former Pakistani prime minister Imran Khan and his wife, Bushra Bibi, have been sentenced to a combined 17 years in prison for illegally purchasing state gifts at far below market value. Khan calls the case politically motivated as he remains jailed amid a raft of corruption and security-related prosecutions.

2️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 🇹🇷 Israeli ceasefire breaches threaten next stage of Gaza peace talks: Türkiye’s foreign minister has warned that repeated Israeli violations of the Gaza ceasefire are jeopardising the transition to its second phase, as US, Egyptian, Qatari and Turkish officials met in Miami to review the deal. He said there was broad agreement among mediators that Israel’s actions are undermining the peace plan and risk collapsing the fragile truce.

3️⃣ 🇯🇴 🇸🇾 🇺🇸 Jordan joins US-led airstrikes against IS in southern Syria: Jordan’s air force has taken part in coordinated coalition airstrikes alongside the US targeting IS positions in southern Syria, the Jordanian Armed Forces confirmed. The operation follows renewed IS activity, including an attack near Palmyra.

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