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📰 Biden warns Israel on Iran

📰 Biden warns Israel on Iran

and France invests in Suriname oil

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
October 03, 2024

Hello and welcome back,

In the past 24 hours, the Kenyan parliament has initiated a motion to impeach the deputy president, an Israeli strike targeted a health centre in a central Beirut neighbourhood, and President Biden stated he would not endorse an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear sites.

Today’s key focus is on the future of peacekeeping in Africa, as the UN scales back its peacekeeping operations on the continent. This shift has prompted the Security Council and member states to reevaluate strategies for maintaining stability, particularly concerning blue-helmet missions and support for African-led initiatives.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇨🇳 China rises in Asia military rankings as regional power dynamics shift: The Lowy Institute's latest Asia Power Index reveals China's significant rise in military rankings, closing the gap with the United States. This shift is attributed to China's growing economic and diplomatic influence in Asia, alongside the modernization of the People's Liberation Army (PLA). While Russia remains in second place, its military power has weakened due to the Ukraine war. India has surpassed Japan to become the fourth most powerful nation globally and third in Asia, though its ability to project power remains limited. Despite China's growing reach, it lacks overseas military bases and a blue-water navy, with Taiwan posing the most likely US-China flashpoint. The Asia Power Index evaluates 27 countries and territories based on 131 indicators across eight areas: military capability, defence networks, economic strength, diplomatic and cultural influence, resilience, and future resources.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇿🇲 🇨🇩 🇦🇴 Washington’s Lobito Corridor challenges China’s Belt and Road Initiative: China’s growing economic dominance in Africa is evident, having overtaken the U.S. as the continent’s largest trade partner in 2009 and quadrupling U.S.-Africa trade since. This shift has raised concerns in Washington, spurring efforts to strengthen U.S.-Africa ties through projects like the Lobito Corridor. Unveiled in 2023, this 1,300 km railway, connecting Zambia, the DRC, and Angola, is backed by the U.S., European Commission, the African Development Bank (AfDB), and the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC).. The corridor, echoing China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), aims to enhance infrastructure and access to Africa's critical minerals. With over $3 billion in U.S. funding, it also seeks to secure copper supply lines vital for the energy transition.

3️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 Central Beirut neighbourhood hit by Israeli strike: Israeli airstrikes on Beirut's Bachoura neighbourhood struck a health centre, killing at least six people, according to Lebanon's Health Ministry. Over the past 24 hours, Israeli attacks across Lebanon have left at least 45 dead and 85 injured. Meanwhile, Hizbollah launched more than 100 rockets at Israel, mostly landing in open areas of western Galilee. On the border, eight Israeli soldiers were killed. Israel has denied the UN chief entry into the country. Jordan's foreign minister warned both Israel and Iran that the kingdom will "defend itself against any threat" after Iranian missiles breached its airspace. Qatar’s emir reaffirmed Doha's efforts to mediate a ceasefire in Gaza.

4️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Biden says he would not support Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear sites: US President Joe Biden has stated he would not support an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites and that the G7 will soon discuss Israel’s response to Tehran's missile strikes. Biden emphasised Israel’s “right to respond” but urged proportionality. He confirmed ongoing communication between the White House and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who called the attack a "big mistake" and promised Iran would "pay." Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, warned of the IRGC’s capability for a stronger retaliation, but said he is not seeking war.

5️⃣ 🇫🇷 🇺🇸 🇸🇷 France, U.S., to invest $10 billion into Suriname oil extraction project: TotalEnergies has secured several exploration licences off the coast of Suriname and announced a $10.5 billion investment in oil and gas development there. CEO Patrick Pouyanné called it the country’s "first offshore flagship project," with production set to begin in 2028. The decision focuses on the GranMorgu project’s block 58, located around 150 kilometres from the coast. This includes a production facility capable of producing 220,000 barrels per day. The project will develop oil reserves from the Sapakara and Krabdagu fields, with an estimated total reserve of over 750 million barrels.

Major Story

🇺🇳 THE FUTURE OF UN PEACEKEEPING IN AFRICA

Background

The UN is reducing its peacekeeping operations in Africa, prompting the Security Council and member states to reassess how to maintain stability on the continent, especially regarding blue-helmet missions and support for African-led initiatives. In December 2023, the Council adopted Resolution 2719, establishing a framework for UN funding of AU-mandated peace support operations on a case-by-case basis, balancing this with the value of blue-helmet missions.

Currently, over 48,000 personnel serve in UN missions across Africa, mainly in the Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and South Sudan. Many diplomats view these deployments as declining assets, as African governments criticise UN forces for their cautiousness and human rights critiques. This dissatisfaction has led to the exploration of alternatives, including regional coalitions and private military companies like the Wagner Group.

Resolution 2719 allows the UN to cover up to 75% of funding for AU-led missions. Secretary-General Guterres argues that the AU can handle peace enforcement tasks that UN operations cannot. Following the resolution, diplomats have suggested test cases for UN-AU collaboration in the eastern DRC and Sudan, but specifics on UN financing remain unresolved and may extend until 2025.

Somalia is a potential candidate for UN funding for a new AU mission, with plans to replace the AU Transition Mission (ATMIS) by early 2025, pending Security Council approval. While many diplomats support this funding framework, the U.S. is sceptical about its feasibility, and without dedicated UN funding, the AU may struggle to maintain troops in Somalia.

Concerns persist that the strengths of blue-helmet missions are being overlooked. Despite their flaws, UN missions have established effective procedures for deploying and sustaining forces. The challenges in deploying the Multinational Security Support (MSS) in Haiti highlight the limitations of relying on temporary coalitions. Diplomats in New York are advocating for a reassessment of UN missions' value, with the draft Pact for the Future calling for a comprehensive review of all peace operations.

This review should address institutional, operational, and political challenges, including the relationship between UN missions and host governments. It also offers an opportunity to explore the comparative advantages of UN versus African-led missions in various crises. Ultimately, the UN, AU, and regional bodies may need to improvise operations to respond to emergencies, but Resolution 2719 and the Pact for the Future provide a framework for strategic discussions on preparing for these challenges.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇰🇪 Kenyan parliament initiates motion to impeach deputy president: Allies of Kenyan President William Ruto have introduced a motion in parliament to impeach Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, accusing him of inciting ethnic divisions and undermining the government. The rift between Ruto and Gachagua has recently become public, with Gachagua claiming he's been sidelined. He denies allegations from Ruto's allies that he was involved in violent anti-government protests earlier this year. Ruto has not commented on the impeachment, and Gachagua's office has not responded to requests for comment. Gachagua, a key figure in mobilising the Mount Kenya voting bloc for Ruto's 2022 victory, has seen his influence decline after Ruto appointed opposition members to his government. Around 83% of parliament's 349 members signed the impeachment motion, well above the required one-third for a vote. If passed, the senate will investigate the charges.

2️⃣ 🇧🇯 Alleged coup plot in Benin foiled, conspirators jailed: Two associates of Benin's President Patrice Talon, arrested last week for allegedly plotting a coup, have been remanded in custody ahead of their trial, according to their lawyer Ayodele Ahounou. Olivier Boko, a businessman and longtime friend of Talon, and Oswald Homeky, a former sports minister, face charges of conspiracy against state security, corruption, and money laundering. Both were accused of attempting to bribe the commander responsible for the president's security to orchestrate a coup. Special prosecutor Elonm Mario Metonou revealed that Homeky was apprehended on Tuesday while allegedly delivering six bags of money to the Republican Guard’s commander.