Hello and welcome back.

Headlines from Africa dominate today’s update: Turkey-backed Islamist factions escalate Sudan’s widening conflict; uncertainty clouds the renewal of Somalia’s peacekeeping mission; and Islamic State-linked attacks in northern Mozambique displace thousands.

Our main story examines how intensifying U.S.–China rivalry is reshaping the Indo-Pacific security order.

Read more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 🇪🇺 Trump pressures Zelenskyy ahead of Washington talks with European leaders: Donald Trump has publicly pressed Volodymyr Zelenskyy to accept concessions in peace talks, declaring the Ukrainian president could “end the war almost immediately” if he chose. Writing on Truth Social, Trump ruled out Ukraine joining NATO or reclaiming Crimea, framing both as off the table in negotiations with Moscow. His remarks come just before Oval Office talks with Zelenskyy, Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron, and Friedrich Merz, where European leaders are expected to reaffirm support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity and reject any land-swap deal. The comments follow Trump’s summit with Vladimir Putin in Alaska, widely seen as a boost for Moscow. While Trump insists “big progress” was made, Kyiv and its allies fear US pressure could force Ukraine into a settlement that rewards Russian aggression.

2️⃣ 🇧🇴 Bolivia faces historic run-off as rightwing rivals end Mas dominance: For the first time in modern history, Bolivia’s presidency will be decided in a run-off, ending nearly two decades of dominance by the leftist Movimiento al Socialismo (Mas). The surprise frontrunner is centre-right senator Rodrigo Paz Pereira, who surged from 3% in early polls to win 32.1% of the vote, ahead of former president Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga on 26.9%. Business tycoon Samuel Doria Medina, finishing third with 19.9%, has pledged to back Paz Pereira in the October run-off. Mas’s candidate, Eduardo del Castillo, scraped just above the 3% threshold needed to preserve the party’s legal status, as null ballots spiked to 19% following Evo Morales’s call for protest votes. The decisive second round will play out amid Bolivia’s worst economic crisis in four decades.

3️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 UN condemns Israeli settlement plan near East Jerusalem as illegal and a war crime: The UN human rights office has condemned Israel’s plan to expand thousands of housing units connecting a West Bank settlement to East Jerusalem, calling it a breach of international law that could trigger forced Palestinian evictions—a war crime. Far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who backs the project, said it would “bury” the possibility of a Palestinian state. UN officials warned the construction would exacerbate the West Bank's already fragmented territorial contiguity. In violation of international law, over 700,000 Israeli settlers now live in dwellings under total Israeli military protection in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem, territories seized in 1967. Israel disputes this, citing biblical ties, historic claims, and security concerns to justify settlement expansion.

4️⃣ 🇲🇱 🇫🇷 Mali arrests generals and alleged French agent over coup plot claims: Mali’s junta says it has foiled a plot to destabilise the state, arresting two generals, other officers, and civilians including a French national, identified as Yann Vezilier. Security Minister Gen. Daouda Aly Mohammedine said the group acted on behalf of French intelligence, but offered few details. State TV showed 11 alleged conspirators, including Gen Abass Dembélé, dismissed in May after calling for an inquiry into army killings, and Gen Néma Sagara, celebrated for fighting militants in 2012. Analysts suggest the arrests may reflect the junta’s strategy of suppressing dissent rather than a genuine coup threat, amid growing discontent. Mali has expelled French forces, embraced Russian support, and extended Gen Assimi Goïta’s rule by five years, even as militant violence intensifies across the Sahel.

5️⃣ 🇭🇹 🇺🇳 Erik Prince’s security firm set to deploy foreign contractors in Haiti: Hundreds of fighters from the U.S., Europe, and El Salvador are expected to join a Haiti mission led by Blackwater founder Erik Prince’s security firm, Vectus Global. The company, active in the country since March, has signed a reported 10-year deal granting it a role in both security operations and tax collection. Prince says success will mean restoring safe passage between Port-au-Prince and Cap-Haïtien, but critics warn private military contractors could further weaken Haiti’s institutions. Rights groups argue outsourcing security undermines local police and the Kenya-led UN mission, while analysts note gangs still dominate key areas despite months of Vectus involvement. With violence escalating—over 1,500 killed since April—many Haitians, desperate for relief, are willing to accept interventions once unthinkable, though doubts remain over long-term outcomes.

Major Story

🇨🇳 🇨🇩 🇰🇿 🇮🇩 HOW CHINA CAPTURED THE WORLD’S MINERAL SUPPLY CHAINS

China’s rise to dominance in global critical mineral markets did not unfold through transparent state enterprises or grand Belt and Road speeches. Instead, it was built through an opaque network of shell companies, shadow intermediaries, and quiet deals in some of the world’s most resource-rich yet politically fragile regions. From cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to nickel reserves in Indonesia and chromite in Kazakhstan, Chinese cutouts have secured long-term rights to the minerals essential for electric vehicles, advanced batteries, and hypersonic missiles. Few of these companies are recognizable, yet their reach is global, and their influence has left the United States and its allies scrambling to catch up.

Finance, Control, and Market Leverage

This strategy is sustained by vast flows of state-backed financing. Between 2000 and 2021, Chinese banks and firms issued nearly $57 billion in loans to mineral ventures in low- and middle-income countries, overwhelmingly favoring Chinese ownership and control. The result is not only access to raw materials but also first-refusal rights on exports, allowing Beijing to lock out competitors. Added to this is China’s dominance in processing: it refines nearly three-quarters of the world’s cobalt, two-thirds of nickel, and more than 90% of rare earth elements. Such capacity enables Beijing to manipulate markets—flooding supply to bankrupt rivals, as seen in nickel and lithium, or imposing export restrictions to gain leverage in disputes with Japan and the United States.

Infrastructure and Corruption as Tools

Mineral concessions are often tied to infrastructure deals: railways, ports, and roads built by Chinese firms in exchange for guaranteed access to resources. These arrangements not only ensure logistical control but also entrench economic dependence. In the DRC, leaked contracts revealed multimillion-dollar payments funneled through shell companies to local elites, with little benefit reaching ordinary citizens. This combination of infrastructure investment, soft coercion, and corruption has given China a lock on resource corridors from sub-Saharan Africa to Central Asia.

America’s Strategic Dilemma

By contrast, U.S. strategy—centered on transparency, environmental safeguards, and private investment—has proven slow and risk-averse. Legal restrictions mean the Defense Production Act can only support projects in a handful of allied states, leaving Washington hamstrung in the regions where Chinese influence is strongest. Proposals to link U.S. security assistance and arms sales to mineral access—the so-called “materiel-for-minerals” strategy—offer promise but face political and logistical hurdles. Meanwhile, America’s defense industry remains dangerously dependent on Chinese supply chains, with over 95% of its rare earths imported from China.

The Stakes Ahead

The consequences of inaction are profound. China’s grip on global minerals not only shapes markets but threatens to constrain U.S. military readiness, from F-35 production to missile systems. Unless Washington and its allies develop a coordinated, flexible strategy—investing in alternative processing, building trusted joint ventures, and demanding transparency in global contracts—they risk ceding long-term technological and strategic advantage. The contest over minerals is not a distant economic concern; it is a front line in the great power rivalry of the 21st century.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇵🇭 🇺🇸 U.S. and Philippines weigh additional missile deployments amid South China Sea tensions: The United States and the Philippines are discussing deploying more missile launchers to strengthen deterrence in the South China Sea and nearby flashpoints, though no decision has been finalised, Manila’s ambassador to Washington said. The U.S. previously brought a Typhon mid-range missile system to northern Philippines in 2023 and an anti-ship launcher to Batanes earlier this year, moves that drew sharp protests from Beijing. Ambassador Jose Manuel Romualdez said the possible installation of additional NMESIS anti-ship systems is under consideration to bolster coastal defense. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has rejected China’s demands to withdraw U.S. missile systems, framing them as part of Manila’s alliance with Washington. China, which claims almost the entire South China Sea, warned the deployments threaten regional stability.

2️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇧🇪 ICC poised to decide on apartheid charges against Israeli ministers Smotrich and Ben Gvir: Applications for arrest warrants against Israeli ministers Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich on charges of apartheid are reportedly complete and sitting with two deputy prosecutors at the International Criminal Court. If filed, they would mark the first time apartheid is prosecuted internationally. Sources say Karim Khan finalised the cases before going on leave in May, but US sanctions, political threats, and pressure from allies like the UK have stalled action. Critics warn that shelving the applications would squander a historic chance to prosecute one of the clearest cases of institutionalised racial domination today. With mounting external pressure, including threats to cripple the ICC itself, the fate of the warrants now hangs on whether the deputies will risk submission.

3️⃣ 🇸🇰 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 Slovakia profits from arms exports to Ukraine despite Fico’s opposition: Prime Minister Robert Fico has halted official arms deliveries to Ukraine, criticised EU sanctions, and courted Moscow, yet Slovakia’s defense industry is thriving from wartime demand. Arms exports surged to €1.15 billion in 2024—around 1 percent of GDP—ten times pre-war levels. Bratislava insists its pledge not to send weapons from state stocks holds, but private firms face no restrictions, producing artillery, ammunition, and electronic warfare systems for Western buyers who often redirect them to Kyiv. Ministers frame this as free-market economics and job creation, even as critics denounce the government’s pacifist rhetoric as opportunistic. While blocking direct aid, Slovakia eagerly seeks EU funds from defense initiatives, underscoring Fico’s balancing act between domestic politics, Moscow-friendly posturing, and economic gains from Europe’s rearmament drive.

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Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics