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📰 Bolivian unrest escalates

📰 Bolivian unrest escalates

and Houthis to uphold blockade

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
November 04, 2024

Hello,

Today's dispatch is largely focused on significant developments in Africa, including unexpected election results in Botswana and the deaths of African Union troops at the hands of al-Shabaab in Somalia.

Our main story delineates the complex relationship between Turkiye and the United States, evaluating the tension between Washington policymakers who advocate for collaboration and those who support a more estranged approach.

Stay informed with these stories and more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇧🇴 Violent standoff in Bolivia between former president Morales and incumbent Arce: Supporters of Bolivia’s former president Evo Morales escalated their conflict with the government by storming a military barracks in Chapare, taking around 20 soldiers hostage, according to military sources on Friday. This follows weeks of roadblocks by Morales’s allies, who claim that rape charges against him are politically motivated to prevent his return to power. Morales, Bolivia's first Indigenous leader, served from 2006 until 2019, when he stepped down amid contested election results. In a statement, Bolivia’s armed forces reported that "irregular armed groups" had seized military personnel and weapons. A video released by Bolivian media showed 16 soldiers surrounded by protesters holding sticks. The protests have led to significant shortages of food and fuel, with President Luis Arce warning of potential military intervention. Morales has denied the allegations, calling them a “lie,” as his supporters call for Arce’s resignation amid worsening economic conditions.

2️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇨🇳 🇧🇩 India, China, and Bangladesh at loggerheads over Brahmaputra river: The 2,900-kilometre Brahmaputra River originates in Tibet, flows through India’s Arunachal Pradesh, and drains into the Bay of Bengal in Bangladesh. It’s vital for all three nations: China relies on it for hydroelectric power, while India and Bangladesh depend on it for agriculture. China has built several hydropower plants on the Tibetan Plateau, including the Zangmu Dam, with plans for a massive ‘super dam’ on the river’s Great Bend. This has raised geopolitical tensions, as reduced downstream flow could impact India’s and Bangladesh’s water resources. A 2002 agreement for China to share hydrological data was suspended after the 2017 Doklam standoff, highlighting the river’s contentious role. Though experts argue the Brahmaputra’s natural flow limits upstream control, water security remains a concern amid climate change.

3️⃣ 🇲🇩 🇪🇺 🇷🇺 Pro-EU incumbent, Maia Sandu, wins Moldovan presidential election: Maia Sandu—Moldova's pro-European Union president—has secured a second term, preliminary election results indicate, bolstering the country's EU aspirations and signalling a clear shift away from Moscow. This runoff election was a critical gauge of Moldova's long-term geopolitical path—whether towards Russia or Europe. Sandu, a former World Bank adviser pushing for independence from Russian influence, faced Kremlin-backed Socialist candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo in Sunday’s vote. Early results show that Moldova’s substantial diaspora—making up around 20% of eligible voters—strongly supported Sandu. This outcome, celebrated in Brussels, comes just after pro-Russian forces gained ground in Georgia, another EU-aspiring former Soviet state. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen praised Sandu’s victory, affirming the EU's commitment to Moldova’s European future. The EU has pledged €1.8 billion to support Moldova’s EU integration, which Sandu aims to achieve by 2030.

4️⃣ 🇲🇿 Police accused of killing unarmed protestors in Mozambique, amid rigged election claims: Daniel Chapo, the ruling Frelimo party’s candidate, secured 70.7% of the vote in Mozambique’s recent election, extending Frelimo’s nearly five-decade rule since independence. However, widespread allegations of electoral fraud surfaced. The opposition, led by Venâncio Mondlane of the Podemos party, claimed a 53% victory, backing their case with a 100-page legal challenge supported by 300 kg of documents. Mozambique’s Catholic bishops, EU observers, and civil society groups reported irregularities, including alleged fake voter registrations and ballot stuffing. On October 19, as rigging accusations mounted, Podemos officials Elvino Dias and Paulo Guambe were fatally shot by unknown gunmen, raising concerns of targeted violence against opposition figures. Days later, plainclothes police allegedly opened fire at Mondlane during a press conference, intensifying public outcry for justice and democracy, with mourners calling for political change.

5️⃣ 🇧🇼 Botswana elections sees BDP’s 58 year rule come to an end: In a surprising turn of events, voters in Botswana have ousted the long-dominant Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), which has held power for nearly 60 years, electing an opposition coalition led by presidential candidate Duma Boko. The 54-year-old leader from the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) replaces President Mokgweetsi Masisi, who conceded defeat after his party suffered a historic loss. Masisi announced plans for a smooth transition, stating, "From tomorrow, I will start the process of handover." Chief Justice Terence Rannowane officially confirmed Boko's victory, praising the trust the electorate has placed in him. Boko committed to fulfilling his responsibilities, emphasising that the government belongs to the people. The UDC's ambitious platform includes proposals to more than double the minimum wage, enhance social services, and establish a more independent judiciary.

Major Story

🇹🇷 🇺🇸 UNDERSTANDING ANKARA AND WASHINGTON’S COMPLEX RELATIONSHIP

Background

In 2024, U.S.-Turkish relations saw both advancement and stagnation. After years of strained ties, the U.S. and Turkey made headway with Turkiye’s endorsement of Sweden’s NATO membership and Washington’s approval of Turkiye’s F-16V fighter jet purchase and upgrade package. These moves, alongside the ongoing U.S.-Turkiye Strategic Mechanism, aimed to enhance transparency and defence cooperation, bolstered by the U.S. ambassador in Ankara, Jeff Flake, brokering a key artillery ammunition co-production deal.

Renewed Friction Amid Positive Developments

However, by late 2024, relations encountered new obstacles. The F-16 order was scaled back, and rising discord between Presidents Biden and Erdoğan—particularly regarding the Gaza conflict and Turkiye’s inconsistent enforcement of U.S. export bans to Russia—has dampened diplomatic progress. The situation is further complicated by growing sentiment in Washington that engaging with Turkiye may not be worth the effort, as some policymakers contend that Turkiye’s actions conflict too deeply with U.S. interests to justify rapprochement.

Calls for Strategic Distance: A Flawed Approach?

A hawkish faction within Washington advocates sidelining Turkey altogether, suggesting Ankara undermines U.S. goals and is a liability as long as Erdoğan governs. A less extreme stance proposes punitive measures to prompt Turkish alignment with U.S. priorities, though this strategy risks eroding cooperation in crucial areas like the Black Sea, Middle East, and North Africa.

The Risks of Isolation

Efforts to marginalise Turkiye overlook its strategic importance in global power dynamics. Turkiye’s extensive network of international alliances—spanning NATO, Russia, and the Global South—limits its susceptibility to Western coercion. Ignoring Turkiye could cede influence over pivotal regions, including the Balkans and Central Asia, to competitors.

A Pragmatic Path Forward

Rich Outzen of the Atlantic Council argues that U.S. policy should embrace a flexible, transactional approach instead of a rigid binary choice between full alignment and isolation. This perspective is supported by a 2023 study from the German Marshall Fund, which highlights that Turkiye, like other “swing states,” prioritises sovereignty and pragmatic partnerships. By continuing diplomatic efforts and building on recent agreements, both nations could achieve significant progress on key issues, such as countering Russian and Chinese influence, and supporting Ukraine. According to Outzen, these objectives are best accomplished through collaboration rather than estrangement.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇪🇬 Fatah-Hamas talks hosted in Cairo: Senior Fatah and Hamas officials met in Cairo to discuss forming an independent committee to oversee Gaza’s governance after the conflict, according to Egyptian security sources via Al Qahera News TV. These discussions are part of Egypt’s ongoing mediation efforts to secure a ceasefire with Israel and broaden humanitarian aid access to Gaza. Egypt had initially proposed the committee, composed of neutral Palestinian representatives, in a prior meeting that adjourned without resolution. Despite mediation efforts from Egypt, Qatar, and the U.S., a lasting truce remains elusive. Israel opposes Hamas's continued influence in Gaza and doubts the Palestinian Authority’s capacity to govern the enclave. Meanwhile, Hamas insists on a full cessation of hostilities, rejecting temporary truces. These talks follow anti-government protests in Egypt, sparked by the docking of a German arms-laden ship destined for Israel at Alexandria port.

2️⃣ 🇾🇪 🇮🇱 Ansarullah to maintain maritime blockade: Yemen’s Houthi movement announced on Sunday that it will uphold its maritime blockade on Israeli vessels, citing "intelligence information" indicating that Israeli shipping firms are transferring their assets to other companies. Aligned with Iran, the Houthis have stepped up attacks in what they describe as support for Hamas and Hizbollah’s regional resistance against Israeli actions. Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Sarea stated that they will disregard any changes in ownership and issued a warning against dealing with these companies. In a televised address, Sarea declared that the Houthis would continue their blockade on Israeli-linked vessels, asserting they will target any ships associated with Israel until Israel halts its offensive actions and lifts the siege on Gaza and Lebanon.

3️⃣ 🇸🇴 🇺🇳 Al-Shabaab mortar attack kills African Union troops in Somalia: Two African Union soldiers were killed, and a third was injured in a mortar attack by al-Shabaab on Sunday at their base within Mogadishu’s international airport compound. The attack, targeting the Halane Base Camp, involved at least four 107mm mortar rounds. The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) head, Mohamed El-Amine Souef, condemned the attack, reaffirming the AU’s commitment to counterterrorism efforts and peacebuilding in Somalia. “The heinous attack will not deter us or Somali security forces from pursuing lasting peace in Somalia,” he stated. An AU official confirmed that the soldiers killed and the injured were Ugandan. Souef extended condolences to the victims' families and wished a swift recovery for the injured. Following the incident, the AU leadership visited the blast site. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the attack, which underscores the group’s continued threat to Mogadishu's security despite being ousted from the city in 2011.