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📰 Bolsonaro placed under house arrest

📰 Bolsonaro placed under house arrest

and African Union condemns Nyala Declaration

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
August 05, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

Developments today include Iraq’s oil export dependence being laid bare by the Iran-Israel war; South Korea dismantles border loudspeakers to ease North Korean tensions; and China quietly aids allies in conflicts while denying direct military involvement.

Our lead story revisits last week’s landmark ICJ climate ruling, which elevates state obligations on climate action from political commitments to enforceable legal duties.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇸🇩 African Union condemns RSF’s parallel government, maintains Sudan suspension: The African Union (AU) has denounced the Rapid Support Forces’ (RSF) creation of a rival government in Nyala, warning it threatens Sudan’s political process. Following its 1293rd emergency session, the AU’s Peace and Security Council reaffirmed support for Sudan’s sovereignty, urged an immediate ceasefire, and called for a “comprehensive, Sudanese-led political dialogue.” The council highlighted the worsening humanitarian crisis, receiving briefings from AU envoy Mohamed Ibn Chambas and the World Food Programme on urgent civilian protection and aid access. While welcoming the army-aligned government’s appointment of civilian premier Kamil Idris, the AU kept Sudan’s membership suspended, citing ongoing hostilities and RSF sieges. The AU pledged continued engagement through its High-Level Panel and regional coordination mechanisms, stressing unified peace efforts and accountability for rights abuses.

2️⃣ 🇧🇷 Bolsonaro placed under house arrest amid coup case: Brazil’s Supreme Court placed former president Jair Bolsonaro under house arrest after he violated court-ordered restrictions linked to an alleged coup plot. Justice Alexandre de Moraes ruled that Bolsonaro breached a social media ban by using allies’ accounts to incite attacks on the Supreme Court and advocate foreign intervention. The far-right leader will remain confined to his rented mansion in Brasília, with access limited to family and lawyers, and federal police have seized available phones. Moraes cited Bolsonaro’s phone participation in a pro-Bolsonaro rally and his son Flávio’s deleted social media post as evidence of deliberate defiance. Bolsonaro faces charges of orchestrating an attempt to overturn the 2022 election won by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, with a potential sentence exceeding 40 years.

3️⃣ 🇦🇺 Government transparency in Australia is in sharp decline: Transparency underpins democracy, yet Australia’s openness has deteriorated dramatically. Compliance with Senate orders for documents has plunged to around 33% under the Albanese government, the lowest since 2016, while freedom of information (FOI) outcomes have worsened: full grants fell from 59% in 2011–12 to 25% in 2023–24, and refusals have nearly doubled. Public interest immunity claims are rising, now averaging one per week, and FOI reviews take over 15 months on average, with almost half of initial refusals later deemed flawed. This erosion of accountability disproportionately affects those without direct access to government. Experts recommend an independent arbiter for immunity claims, stronger Senate enforcement, and better-resourced FOI processes. Without reform, Australia risks entrenching a culture of secrecy that undermines public trust in its democratic institutions.

4️⃣ 🇨🇫 🇸🇩 Touadéra secures nomination as CAR faces election doubts and rising border insecurity: Central African Republic President Faustin-Archange Touadéra accepted his ruling United Hearts Movement’s nomination on 26 July, clearing the way for a third term under the 2023 constitution. A leaked MINUSCA recording on 7 July questioned the feasibility of December’s presidential and legislative elections, prompting the opposition Republican Bloc to demand a halt to UN support until electoral reforms occur. Bangui insists the polls, including rescheduled municipal elections, will proceed in December to leverage international funding. Meanwhile, rebel leaders Ali Darassa (UPC) and Sembé Bobo (3R) dissolved their groups in a symbolic step unlikely to disarm all fighters without a credible DDR process. In Vakaga, cross-border tensions with Sudanese Arabs escalated, with bandit attacks and village burnings, as local women’s groups urged tighter controls and youth militarisation.

5️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇵🇰 China quietly backs allies in conflicts while denying military involvement: China repeatedly presents itself as a neutral actor that avoids arming warring states, yet its actions often tell a different story. Beijing has quietly supplied dual-use goods, intelligence, and advanced weaponry to allies like Russia, Pakistan, and possibly Iran, while publicly insisting on diplomatic neutrality. This covert support serves multiple goals: countering U.S. influence, preserving strategic “breathing room,” and showcasing Chinese hardware without overtly breaking its noninterference doctrine. Recent allegations include missile components for Iran after its clashes with Israel, satellite imagery and supplies for Russia in Ukraine, and real-time intelligence for Pakistan in its standoff with India. Such strategies rely on plausible deniability—but as evidence mounts, China risks sliding into “implausible” denial, where its quiet backing of partners becomes an open secret.

Major Story

🇺🇳 ICJ CLIMATE RULING ELEVATES STATE OBLIGATIONS TO LEGAL DUTIES

The International Court of Justice (ICJ) last week issued a unanimous advisory opinion clarifying states’ obligations on climate change. Though non-binding, the ruling is a milestone in framing climate inaction as a potential breach of international law. It affirms that governments may face legal, financial and diplomatic consequences if they fail to curb emissions or mitigate harm. With COP30 in Brazil approaching, the opinion strengthens the leverage of low-emitting and climate-vulnerable states in global negotiations.

Defining State Responsibilities

The ICJ anchored its findings in existing treaties, international human rights law and customary norms. It confirmed that states must:

Prevent significant environmental harm by exercising due diligence; enacting regulatory, administrative and enforcement measures to achieve rapid emissions reductions.
Cooperate in good faith internationally, including through information-sharing, joint mitigation efforts and technology transfers.
Both duties apply to all states, regardless of treaty participation. The Court also reinforced that parties to the Paris Agreement must maintain and update nationally determined contributions (NDCs) aligned with the 1.5°C goal, and that the International Law Commission’s rules on state responsibility apply to climate-related harms.

Legal and Political Implications

While the ICJ cannot enforce compliance, the opinion carries significant weight as an authoritative interpretation of international law. It strengthens the legal foundations for climate litigation, allowing claims to be grounded in states’ conduct rather than political commitments. Breaches may now expose governments to demands for compensation where harm is causally linked to climate damage, including loss and damage claims from vulnerable countries.

For businesses, the opinion does not create direct international obligations but reinforces states’ duty to regulate corporate actors. Governments that fail to align domestic policies—on fossil fuel production, subsidies or environmental standards—with evolving international norms risk both reputational damage and legal exposure.

Shaping Future Climate Governance

By elevating climate action from a political aspiration to a legal duty, the ICJ opinion could reshape global climate diplomacy. It provides smaller states with a clear legal basis to demand accountability, finance and technology transfer from major emitters. However, it also risks heightening tensions between historic emitters and large developing economies like India, Brazil and China, where debates over “fair shares” of responsibility remain unresolved.

The ruling signals that climate inaction now carries tangible legal risk. Whether states respond with meaningful reforms—or retreat from ambitious commitments to avoid litigation—will define the next phase of international climate governance.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇰🇷 🇰🇵 South Korea dismantles border loudspeakers in bid to ease tensions with North Korea: South Korea has begun removing loudspeakers that broadcast anti-North Korean messages along the border, the Defense Ministry confirmed. The step, ordered by President Lee Jae-myung, is aimed at lowering tensions and fostering dialogue with Pyongyang, though officials stressed that military readiness will not be compromised. The dismantling follows Lee’s June suspension of the broadcasts to “restore trust,” prompting North Korea to halt its own broadcasts as well. While the two Koreas remain technically at war, Seoul hopes the gesture will revive stalled engagement. Pyongyang, however, has dismissed the overture, with Kim Yo Jong warning that Seoul is mistaken if it believes tensions can be undone with “a few sentimental words.” All loudspeakers are expected to be removed by week’s end.

2️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇺🇸 Hamas rejects U.S. envoy’s claim of willingness to disarm, unless Palestinian statehood is realised: Hamas firmly denied reports that it is prepared to surrender its weapons, dismissing statements by US envoy Steve Witkoff suggesting the group might disarm to end the Gaza war. The Palestinian movement said its weapons remain a “national and legal right” under international law until Israel ends its occupation and a fully sovereign Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital is established. The rejection comes as Israel intensifies demands for Hamas to disarm, even as ceasefire and prisoner exchange talks stall. Hamas continues to insist on an Israeli troop withdrawal and guarantees for a permanent truce. While the group has signaled openness to relinquishing governance in Gaza, it calls disarmament a “red line,” underscoring the deadlock despite international appeals for a post-war settlement.

3️⃣ 🇮🇶 🇮🇷 🇮🇱 Iraq faces economic fragility as Iran-Israel war exposes oil export dependence: The 12-day war between Iran and Israel underscored Iraq’s acute economic vulnerability. While the conflict temporarily boosted oil prices, fears of a Strait of Hormuz closure highlighted Baghdad’s reliance on a single export corridor for over 90% of its crude. Even historic price spikes would not shield the economy from a prolonged disruption. Iraq’s finances remain brittle: a vast public wage bill, persistent deficits, stalled budgets and dependence on oil revenues above $84 per barrel leave the state exposed. Structural weaknesses—politicised spending, stalled pipeline projects, and minimal economic diversification—persist despite repeated IMF warnings. With elections looming and no credible contingency planning, Iraq remains hostage to external shocks, and the Iran-Israel confrontation should serve as a final warning to confront its chronic fiscal and strategic inertia.