Geopolitics Daily
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📰 Brazil to join OPEC+

📰 Brazil to join OPEC+

and Russian advance slows

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
February 21, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

Latin America is once again in the spotlight as Brazil moves to join the oil production cartel OPEC+ while facing criticism over its role as COP30 host. Meanwhile, the U.S. has designated eight Latin American cartels as terrorist organisations.

Elsewhere, Hamas seeks a permanent ceasefire through a large-scale prisoner exchange, while Taiwan navigates mounting domestic unrest, escalating Chinese pressure, and growing global uncertainty.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Russia’s Pokrovsk advance slows, focus shifts to Kostyantynivka: Russian advances south and southwest of Pokrovsk have slowed, likely due to frontline unit degradation and intensified Ukrainian drone strikes. Russian military leadership may be shifting focus toward Kostyantynivka, a key defensive stronghold in Donetsk Oblast, for planned offensives in 2025. Kremlin-controlled media used an interview with former Ukrainian lawmaker Viktor Medvedchuk to push false claims about President Volodymyr Zelensky’s legitimacy and reaffirm Russia’s objective of dismantling the Ukrainian state.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 Trump chastises Zelenskyy at Miami summit: U.S. President Donald Trump lashed out at Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy, labelling him a “dictator” for postponing elections amid Russia’s invasion. Speaking at the FII Institute summit in Miami, Trump repeated his attacks, criticising Joe Biden for failing to secure financial returns from U.S. aid to Ukraine. He described Ukraine as a “modern-day Gettysburg” and claimed Kyiv reneged on a deal granting the U.S. rights to over half its rare earth minerals in exchange for security guarantees. Calling for diplomacy, he argued, “You can’t end a war without talking to both sides,” expressing hope for a ceasefire to restore stability in Europe and the Middle East.

3️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇹🇷 🇮🇱 SNA–SDF conflict intensifies, Syria asserts claim to Golan Heights: Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) forces intensified attacks on Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) positions along the M4 highway north of Raqqa on February 14–15, with reported shelling in Tarwazia, Ain Fawar, and Dardara near Tal Tamr. The SNA and SDF have exchanged artillery fire across Raqqa and Hasakah Provinces since the SNA’s force buildup on January 8. Meanwhile, Türkiye launched strikes on SDF positions north of Qara Qozak Bridge along the Euphrates on February 16, continuing its attacks on targets near Jarabulus since February 12. Separately, Syrian Interim Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani urged countries to lift sanctions to support reconstruction efforts and reaffirmed Syria’s claim to the Golan Heights, which has been annexed by Israel since 1981.

4️⃣ 🇨🇲 Cameroon's escalating crises and the AU's urgent role: Renewed violence in Cameroon’s North West and South West regions has underscored the enduring plight of the Anglophone minority, largely met with continental indifference. Clashes between government forces and separatist militias have surged, with record kidnappings and attacks on civilians. Meanwhile, in the Far North, Boko Haram has intensified assaults on both military and civilian targets. Amid these security crises, tensions in Yaoundé are rising as President Paul Biya, at 92, signals his intent to extend his 42-year rule in October’s election. Calls from civil society, including Catholic bishops, urging him to step aside have gone unheeded. With separatists forming cross-border alliances and election credibility under threat, the AU should engage more actively, writes ICG—deploying observers, mediating the Anglophone crisis, and pushing for electoral reforms to restore trust in the process.

5️⃣🇹🇷 🇦🇿 🇮🇷 🇦🇲 Growing Türkiye–Azerbaijan rapport raises hackles in Tehran: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s (HTS) influence in Syria has heightened concerns that Türkiye’s ambitions extend beyond the Arab world, particularly into the South Caucasus. With Iran, Russia, and Türkiye deeply involved in both regions, their strategic rivalries risk escalating into a broader confrontation. Tehran is especially wary of a potential Azerbaijani offensive—backed by Türkiye—on Armenia’s Syunik Province to establish the controversial Zangezur Corridor, a project Iran strongly opposes as it would sever its land connection with Armenia. Meanwhile, economic tensions are mounting, with Ankara and Baku reportedly restricting Iranian truck transit, prompting Tehran to impose retaliatory measures. The stakes for Iran are high, as the corridor would place its trade routes to Europe and Russia under Azerbaijani-Turkish control, while Moscow sees the project as a strategic opportunity to bolster its own regional influence.

Major Story

🇹🇼 🇨🇳 TAIWAN’S CHALLENGES IN 2025: DOMESTIC STRIFE, CHINESE PRESSURE, AND GLOBAL UNCERTAINTY

Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te enters 2025 facing three major challenges: an obstructive political opposition, escalating Chinese pressure, and an unpredictable global environment. His ability to manage these issues will shape the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) prospects in the 2026 local elections and his strategic standing for the 2028 presidential race.

Taiwan’s political landscape is deeply polarized. The ruling DPP accuses the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) of prioritizing political gridlock over governance, while the opposition claims Lai is centralizing power and resisting compromise. The TPP, holding a crucial swing vote in parliament, remains embattled following the corruption charges against its founder, Ko Wen-jeh. Legislative paralysis has extended to Taiwan’s judiciary, where opposition parties have blocked the appointment of Constitutional Court justices, rendering the court ineffective.

Economic challenges further complicate governance. Taiwan’s economy, heavily reliant on semiconductor exports, faces rising inequality, stagnant wages, and an aging population. Energy policy remains contentious, particularly the role of nuclear power, with public opinion divided and government plans to phase it out by 2025. A fiscal crisis looms as opposition-led prefectures push for increased local government funding, potentially diverting resources from national defense and infrastructure.

Cross-Strait Tensions and Global Uncertainty

China’s strategy of “coercion without violence” aims to weaken Taiwan’s political and social resilience. Beijing employs economic leverage, cyber warfare, and military pressure to undermine confidence in Taiwan’s sovereignty. In response, Lai has pursued economic diversification, diplomatic engagement, and military modernization. However, opposition-led budget freezes threaten key defense initiatives, potentially undermining Taiwan’s deterrence posture and straining relations with Washington.

Taiwan’s international standing is complicated by political shifts among key allies. U.S. President Trump’s criticisms of Taiwan’s defense spending and trade surplus signal potential tensions, despite bipartisan Congressional support for Taiwan. Lai’s administration faces the challenge of aligning Taiwan’s strategic interests with U.S. unpredictability.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇧🇷 Brazil to join OPEC+, faces criticism as COP30 host: Brazil has approved its entry into OPEC+, marking its rise as a major oil player just months before hosting the UN’s COP30 climate summit. While Brazil will participate in discussions under the Charter of Cooperation, it will not be bound by production cuts, Mines and Energy Minister Alexandre Silveira confirmed. President Lula da Silva has balanced environmental efforts, such as curbing Amazon deforestation, with expanding oil production to fund a green energy transition. However, his push for exploratory drilling near the Amazon River has drawn criticism, particularly as Brazil, now the world’s seventh-largest oil producer, sees crude oil surpass soy as its top export—complicating its position ahead of climate negotiations focused on reducing fossil fuel dependence.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇲🇽 U.S. designates eight Latin American Cartels as terrorist organisations: The U.S. State Department plans to classify Tren de Aragua, the Sinaloa Cartel, and six other Latin American criminal groups as foreign terrorist organizations, according to an unpublished Federal Register notice. Issued by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and set for official release on Thursday, the designation would enable financial sanctions, restrict immigration access for members, and facilitate international cooperation against these groups. The move aligns with President Trump’s broader crackdown on cartels, including a recent executive order expanding terrorism classifications for transnational criminal organizations. Meanwhile, Trump has also threatened steep tariffs on Mexico and Canada, linking them to the drug trade, though these were paused following commitments from both nations to enhance border and crime enforcement.

3️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 Hamas pursues permanent ceasefire through comprehensive prisoner exchange: Hamas has offered to release all remaining Israeli captives, including soldiers taken on 7 October, in exchange for an end to the war and Israel’s full withdrawal from Gaza. Rejecting demands for disarmament and removal from Gaza as "unacceptable," Hamas called for a comprehensive prisoner exchange under a permanent ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, Israel has yet to respond officially, as a separate deal saw six Israeli hostages freed and the bodies of four others returned, including two children. In the occupied West Bank, Israeli forces killed three Palestinians in al-Faraa camp, claiming they were involved in arms sales, while ongoing military operations continue to devastate refugee camps and critical infrastructure.