Hello and welcome back. 

Today, Netanyahu nominates Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize even as ceasefire talks stall and Gaza’s future remains uncertain. Meanwhile, drone and AI warfare continues to shape the strategic landscape in both Ukraine and Gaza.

Our lead story turns to Rio, where deep internal divisions and the absence of key leaders defined the BRICS summit.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇲🇲 China pressures Myanmar's Kachin Independence Army to halt Bhamo offensive or risk rare-earth trade cutoff: China is pressuring Myanmar’s Kachin Independence Army (KIA), one of the paramilitaries fighting Myanmar’s junta government, to abandon its months-long offensive on Bhamo. Beijing warns it may halt rare-earth imports if fighting continues. The KIA seized key mining areas in Kachin state last year, disrupting the global supply of dysprosium and terbium—critical minerals used in EVs and wind turbines. Nearly half of the world’s heavy rare earths come from Kachin, and China dominates their processing. Amid the junta’s retreat, China has backed the military regime to protect its economic interests. KIA officials say Beijing offered trade incentives in exchange for ceasing the offensive, but the group has resisted. With fighting ongoing and airstrikes devastating Bhamo, a prolonged disruption could trigger rare-earth shortages globally, testing China’s patience and the KIA’s resolve.

2️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Israeli defence Minister Katz proposes 'concentration' of Gaza’s population in camps, as Trump and Netanyahu explore expulsion plans: Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz has proposed confining Gaza’s entire population in a closed, militarised camp built on Rafah’s ruins, sparking fierce backlash from human rights advocates. Described by many as a “concentration camp,” the plan would relocate some 600,000 Palestinians to a so-called “humanitarian city” in al-Mawasi, from which they would not be allowed to leave. Despite a potential ceasefire, the camp would remain under Israeli military control, with entry contingent on security “screenings.” Katz claims international agencies would manage the site, but named none. Critics, including Michael Sfard and UK MP Ellie Chowns, labelled the scheme a crime against humanity. Simultaneously, Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump are courting third countries to accept Palestinian “voluntary migrants,” echoing a wider campaign of demographic engineering under the guise of humanitarianism.

3️⃣ 🇦🇫 ICC issues arrest warrants for Taliban leaders over gender-based persecution: The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for Taliban Supreme Leader Haibatullah Akhundzada and Chief Justice Abdul Hakim Haqqani, citing their role in systemic persecution of women and girls in Afghanistan. The ICC found reasonable grounds to believe that, under their leadership since 2021, the Taliban imposed gender-specific restrictions violating rights to education, movement, privacy, and expression—constituting crimes against humanity under Article 7(h) of the Rome Statute. Measures include banning girls' education beyond sixth grade, barring women from legal professions, and dismissing female judges. While ICC member states are obligated to arrest the accused if they travel abroad, prospects for enforcement remain slim unless Akhundzada or Haqqani leave Afghanistan, where the Taliban remains in control despite international non-recognition.

4️⃣ 🇪🇹 Tigrayan factions clash as rival forces challenge control of southern region: Fresh fighting has broken out in Ethiopia’s Tigray region between rival Tigrayan factions, stoking fears of renewed intra-regional violence. The Tigray Defense Force (TDF), aligned with Debretsion Gebremichael’s TPLF faction, reportedly attacked the emerging “Tigray Peace Force” (TPF) in Alasa, southern Tigray, near the Afar border. The TDF, allegedly deploying 50 truckloads of troops under General Yohannes “John Medid,” used mortars and heavy weapons in the assault. The TPF, newly named and thought to have links with the federal government, had mobilised in Afar to challenge what it sees as TPLF–Eritrean collusion. Meanwhile, General Gebreegziabher Beyene, affiliated with the TPF, called for restraint. Regional leaders and opposition groups warn that without urgent mediation, this internal power struggle could reignite a broader civil conflict in an already war-ravaged region.

5️⃣ 🇨🇷 Costa Rica court seeks to lift President Chaves’ immunity over corruption probe: Costa Rica’s Supreme Court has formally requested that President Rodrigo Chaves be stripped of his prosecutorial immunity, paving the way for a trial on corruption charges. The attorney general accuses Chaves and key officials of funnelling illicit payments to political allies using funds from the Central American Bank for Economic Integration (CABEI). Culture Minister Jorge Rodriguez, formerly the communications minister, has also been named in the case. Both men deny wrongdoing. Prosecutors say a former presidential adviser received $32,000 in alleged kickbacks. The president and his team also face separate charges of illicit campaign financing during the 2022 election. With the legislature dominated by opposition lawmakers, the court’s request could gain traction, potentially exposing Chaves to up to eight years in prison if convicted.

Major Story

🇧🇷 🇷🇺 🇮🇳 🇨🇳 🇿🇦 INTERNAL RIFTS AND ABSENCES DEFINE BRICS’ RIO SUMMIT

The July 2025 BRICS summit in Rio was marked by notable absences. Neither Russia’s Vladimir Putin nor China’s Xi Jinping attended, leaving Brazil’s Lula da Silva and India’s Narendra Modi to dominate proceedings. In contrast to past summits, Rio steered away from anti-West rhetoric, focusing instead on UN reform, green transitions, and South–South cooperation. Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on BRICS states pursuing anti-American policies further dampened confrontational posturing.

Divergent visions for BRICS

Russia's 2024 Kazan summit had positioned BRICS as a geopolitical counterweight to Western power, championing multipolarity, de-dollarisation, and expanded membership. In Rio, however, the limits of this vision became evident. While Moscow sees BRICS as a tool to mobilise the Global South against Western dominance, others — particularly members like India and Brazil — resist turning it into an overtly anti-Western bloc. Iran’s first summit as a full member exposed the group’s lack of solidarity. Despite suffering airstrikes on its nuclear sites, the final declaration condemned the attacks without naming those responsible. Russia offered rhetorical support but no tangible assistance, prioritising strategic flexibility over alliance obligations.

Strategic incoherence deepens

The summit also revealed widening divides within the expanded BRICS+. Disagreements emerged over Security Council reform, the Israel–Palestine question, and responses to the Ukraine war. The bloc's vague declaration touched on most global issues but avoided tough stances, reflecting its transactional nature. Despite claims of equality, the bloc is now stratified into founding members, new entrants, and observers — a hierarchy that undermines its core tenets of sovereign parity and inclusivity.

A platform for divergence, not unity

The Rio summit reaffirmed that BRICS lacks a unified geopolitical identity. Rather than bridging differences, it has amplified them. As major powers like Russia and China use BRICS to pursue strategic ambitions, others remain wary of being drawn into polarising great-power rivalries. Without a shared vision, the grouping risks becoming a stage for competing interests, not a coherent force in global governance.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇺🇸 Netanyahu nominates Trump for Nobel Prize as ceasefire talks falter and Gaza’s fate hangs in balance: During a White House dinner, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nominated U.S. President Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, praising his efforts toward regional peace. Trump claimed Gaza ceasefire talks were “going along very well,” yet negotiations in Qatar collapsed without resolution. A proposed deal includes a 60-day ceasefire, the release of hostages and prisoners, and partial Israeli military withdrawal. But scepticism lingers. Netanyahu’s coalition opposes ending the war, and his broader goals may include Gaza's depopulation and annexation. The coming weeks may further reveal Israel’s policy of domination and erasure of any possibility for Palestinian statehood.

2️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇵🇸 Drones and AI reshape the warfare paradigm: The wars in Ukraine and Gaza reveal a twofold revolution in military affairs: bottom-up disruption from unmanned systems and horizontal transformation from artificial intelligence. Ukrainian drones have turned tactical agility into strategic advantage, while AI is enhancing everything from targeting to deterrence—driven by commercial and industrial innovation. Together, they are converging into a single paradigm shift. China is outpacing the US in integrating both, supporting Russian drone production and developing swarm-based “drone motherships” aligned with its AI agenda. Unless the US rapidly accelerates adoption at the scale and speed of innovation, it risks losing its technological edge. Mastery of these dual revolutions, not legacy dominance, will define future victory. As history shows, the most lethal threat in war is not risk—but surprise.

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Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics