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📰 Canada calls snap election

📰 Canada calls snap election

and Ethiopia, Eritrea tensions rise

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
March 24, 2025

Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics daily,

Today, Venezuela agrees to resume U.S. deportation flights, foreign embassies shutter in Juba as South Sudan edges closer to civil war, and fragile Middle Eastern truces unravel amid fresh Israeli airstrikes on Gaza and Lebanon.

Our lead story explores the latest developments in Sudan’s stalled peace efforts, as regional and international actors push to revive talks and forge a unified mediation strategy.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇹🇷 Concerns of democratic backsliding as Türkiye’s popular opposition leader, Ekrem Imamoglu, is jailed: Turkish politics veers further toward authoritarianism as Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, a leading opposition figure and Erdoğan’s likely presidential challenger, was jailed on corruption charges widely seen as politically driven. His arrest, following the cancellation of his university degree and a spate of investigations, coincided with his nomination as the Republican People’s Party (CHP) candidate, sparking mass protests across the country. President Erdoğan’s government has intensified its crackdown, detaining hundreds, restricting social media, and facing accusations of trying to install loyalists within the opposition. While Erdoğan denies political interference, critics say the jailing of İmamoğlu reflects a strategic move to eliminate serious electoral competition ahead of a potential early presidential vote.

2️⃣ 🇸🇩 Sudanese Armed Forces retake Presidential palace in Khartoum in decisive victory: Sudan’s military has tightened its hold on Khartoum, reclaiming key sites including the Republican Palace, the Central Bank, and intelligence headquarters from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The army reported heavy RSF casualties during their retreat, though the paramilitary group has yet to respond. Meanwhile, in Darfur’s al-Maliha city, RSF fighters allegedly killed at least 45 civilians, including women, according to local activist groups. While the military’s advance marks a turning point, former UN envoy Volker Perthes warns the conflict may shift toward an entrenched insurgency, with the RSF retreating to its Darfur stronghold—echoing the region’s violent history.

3️⃣ 🇨🇦 Canada’s prime minister triggers snap election set for April: Canada’s newly appointed prime minister Mark Carney has dissolved Parliament and called a snap election for April 28, just days after taking office. Citing escalating tensions with the United States and aggressive trade policies from President Donald Trump, Carney is seeking a renewed mandate to confront external pressures and reshape Canada’s economy. The Liberal Party, buoyed by a post-Trudeau surge in support, hopes to capitalise on recent momentum and voter frustration with U.S. interference. With polls showing a tight race against the Conservatives, Carney’s gamble could either cement his leadership or expose vulnerabilities in a deeply polarised political climate.

4️⃣ 🇪🇹 🇪🇷 Ethiopia, Eritrea sabre-rattling raises fears of renewed conflict: Rising tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea are raising fears of a new conflict, as Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s rhetoric increasingly points to reclaiming Red Sea access through force. Facing growing domestic unrest and ethnic fragmentation, Abiy appears to be using external confrontation as a tool to consolidate power. His past cooperation with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki during the Tigray war was designed to dismantle their common enemy, the TPLF, but failed to establish a sustained rapport. With Eritrea unlikely to tolerate further provocations and Abiy seeking distraction through adventurism and militarism, the Horn of Africa risks spiralling into deeper instability. A renewed war would draw in regional players and worsen existing humanitarian crises, underscoring the urgent need for diplomatic efforts to defuse tensions and address the root causes of Ethiopia’s political fragmentation.

5️⃣ 🇮🇱 Israeli attorney general faces no-confidence vote following dismissal of Shin Bet chief: Protests erupted across Israel on Sunday as Prime Minister Netanyahu’s cabinet approved a no-confidence vote in Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara, intensifying accusations that the government is eroding democratic institutions. The decision followed last week’s controversial dismissal of Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar and has sparked widespread outrage, drawing together protest movements with diverse agendas—including families of Israeli captives in Gaza. Justice Minister Yariv Levin claimed ongoing disagreements with Baharav-Miara hindered governance, signalling further efforts to remove her. Critics warn that these moves reflect a broader authoritarian shift, echoing earlier protests against judicial reforms aimed at curbing the Supreme Court’s independence.

Major Story

🇸🇩 🇪🇹 SUDAN PEACE TALKS: IGAD PUSHES FOR UNIFIED MEDIATION APPROACH

The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) convened regional and international stakeholders in Addis Ababa last week to streamline mediation efforts aimed at ending Sudan’s protracted conflict. Despite spearheading a peace initiative, IGAD has faced resistance from Sudan’s government, which previously suspended its membership but has recently signalled openness to reengagement.

Led by IGAD Executive Secretary Workneh Gebeyehu and Sudan Special Envoy Lawrence Korbandi, the “Forum of Special Envoys” underscored the importance of unified diplomacy. Discussions centred on aligning efforts to implement the Jeddah Declaration, engaging civil society, strengthening humanitarian diplomacy, and building trust between warring factions. Gebeyehu stressed the need for an inclusive process driven by Sudanese voices, avoiding duplication and ensuring collective impact.

IGAD reiterated its commitment to a coordinated, long-term strategy that honours Sudan’s sovereignty while addressing humanitarian and accountability challenges. Participants pledged to refine collaboration and sustain momentum toward a credible peace process. Despite bleak ceasefire prospects, the meeting marked a renewed effort to harmonize international mediation and foster a Sudanese-owned path to peace.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 Gaza, Lebanon hit by renewed Israeli airstrikes: Israeli airstrikes across southern Gaza overnight killed at least 19 people, according to Palestinian sources. The escalation followed an Israeli air raid on Tyre, southern Lebanon, that killed one person and injured seven, jeopardizing a fragile ceasefire with Hizbollah. As protests erupted across Israel and 40 freed hostages urged Prime Minister Netanyahu to end the “endless war,” Hizbollah denied responsibility for rockets fired from Lebanon, calling Israeli strikes a pretext for continued aggression amid rising regional tensions.

2️⃣ 🇻🇪 🇺🇸 Venezuela to resume accepting U.S. deportation flights: Venezuela has agreed to resume repatriation flights for deported nationals following a temporary halt triggered by tensions with the United States. The suspension was initially ordered by President Nicolás Maduro after U.S. President Donald Trump accused Caracas of breaching prior commitments, prompting retaliatory measures including Chevron’s export license suspension. The situation worsened after the U.S. deported over 200 Venezuelans—alleged members of the Tren de Aragua gang—to a prison in El Salvador, a move Caracas condemned as “kidnapping,” while Washington defended it as necessary under national security powers.

3️⃣ 🇸🇸 🇩🇪 Foreign embassies in Juba close as South Sudan nears civil war: Germany’s Foreign Ministry warned on Saturday that South Sudan is teetering on the brink of renewed civil war, accusing President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar of dragging the country into escalating violence. The announcement, posted on X, follows the U.S. decision to evacuate non-essential staff, citing concerns over the fragile peace process. South Sudan’s government responded by insisting the situation remains “calm,” despite ongoing airstrikes in Nasir and Ulang counties and the continued detention of Machar’s allies. Germany’s move signals mounting international concern that conflict could soon reach the capital, even as officials downplay the threat.