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📰 Canada vs India escalates

📰 Canada vs India escalates

and UN warns of Myanmar chaos

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
October 31, 2024

Hello and welcome back.

In the past 24 hours, the UN Security Council convened to discuss Kosovo, while the UN envoy highlighted the exploitation of Myanmar's escalating crisis by criminal networks.

In Africa, the extension of South Sudan's political transitional period raises concerns about potential violence, and the U.S. has acknowledged the ties between the UAE and the RSF, though it has downplayed its capacity for intervention.

Today’s main story examines the looming threat of political violence in the context of the upcoming U.S. elections and the pervasive partisanship shaping the political landscape.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇱🇧 Naim Qassem named as Hizbollah’s new secretary general: Naim Qassem has been appointed as Hizbollah’s new secretary-general, following the assassination of his predecessor, Hassan Nasrallah, by Israel on September 27. Qassem, previously Hizbollah's long-standing deputy since 1991, assumed the role after an announcement via the group’s Telegram channel. His connection to Hizbollah’s leadership traces back to Abbas al-Musawi’s tenure as secretary-general, who was killed by Israel in 1992. Born in Kfar Kila in South Lebanon—a region frequently targeted by Israeli attacks—Qassem has deep ties to Shia political activism and religious circles, having studied under the prominent Grand Ayatollah Mohammad Hussein Fadlallah. Over the years, Qassem played key roles within Hizbollah, overseeing parts of its educational network and parliamentary activities, while serving on the influential Shura Council. The consensus amongst political analysts is that Qassem’s appointment is a signal of continuity for the organisation.

2️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇰🇵 North Korean troops in Russian uniforms reportedly being deployed to Kursk: According to U.S. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin, North Korean troops, dressed in Russian uniforms and equipped with Russian gear, are reportedly moving to the Russian region of Kursk near Ukraine. Austin described this development as dangerous and destabilising. Speaking at a Pentagon press conference with South Korean Defence Minister Kim Yong-hyun, Austin expressed concern over Pyongyang’s deployment of up to 11,000 troops to Russia, with some headed to the Kursk region, where Russian forces are struggling against Ukrainian advances. Austin warned that the likelihood of North Korean troops being used in combat was high, potentially escalating and prolonging the conflict in Ukraine. He also noted the risk of other nations becoming more directly involved. Minister Kim—while downplaying the risk of war on the Korean Peninsula—cautioned that Pyongyang could seek advanced technologies in exchange, including nuclear and missile capabilities.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇦🇪 🇸🇩 Washington acknowledges UAE-RSF ties, downplays interventionary capacity: The United States conceded its limited capacity to prevent the UAE from supplying arms to Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF), despite urging an end to external interference in the Sudanese conflict. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller began his daily briefing with a strong condemnation of RSF attacks in Gezira state but admitted the complexities of swaying sovereign nations' policy choices. “Every country makes its own decisions on a host of foreign policy issues,” Miller stated, emphasising ongoing U.S. diplomatic efforts with regional partners to seek a resolution. Miller's remarks were in response to questions about the UAE's continued military and logistical support for the RSF, amid allegations of human rights violations and war crimes. The UAE maintains its assistance is purely humanitarian. The U.S. has imposed sanctions on key figures, including RSF leader Hamdan ‘Hemedti’ Dagalo, but faces challenges amid Sudan’s conflicting interests and intricate political landscape. The ongoing conflict has sparked a dire humanitarian crisis, with over 25 million Sudanese requiring aid and more than 14 million displaced.

4️⃣ 🇲🇲 🇺🇳 Criminal networks exploiting Myanmar’s escalating crisis, says UN envoy: The UN special envoy for Myanmar, Julie Bishop, has warned of intensifying conflict, rampant criminal networks, and record levels of human suffering. In her first report to the U.N. General Assembly’s human rights committee since her appointment in April, Bishop urged Myanmar’s key players to move beyond a "zero-sum mentality." Myanmar’s military ousted Aung San Suu Kyi’s government in February 2021, crushing peaceful protests and sparking escalating violence and a humanitarian emergency. Over the past year, three major ethnic militias have expanded their control, leaving the military struggling to maintain order and forcing hundreds of thousands to flee. Currently, 3 million people are displaced, and 18.6 million require aid. Bishop noted extensive regional engagement efforts and emphasised the scale of Myanmar’s organised crime issues. She aligned with U.N. Secretary-General Guterres' call for a democratic transition amid mounting concerns of "forgotten crisis" status.

5️⃣ 🇨🇦 🇮🇳 Canada alleges India’s ‘campaign of violence and threats’ against Sikh separatists: The Canadian government has accused Amit Shah—India’s home affairs minister and a close political ally of Narendra Modi—of orchestrating plots to target and intimidate Sikh separatists in Canada. This allegation came to light during a parliamentary committee session where David Morrison, Canada’s deputy foreign affairs minister, confirmed that he disclosed Shah’s alleged role in a series of violent and threatening incidents against the Sikh diaspora, but did not elaborate on how Shah was linked to the investigation. India has previously dismissed Canada’s claims as baseless and politically motivated, while also accusing Canada of harbouring extremists. This diplomatic row follows accusations by senior Canadian police officials last month, who alleged that India’s diplomats were involved in illegal activities, including murder and intimidation, within Canada. The dispute has led to mutual expulsions of diplomats, plunging Canada-India relations to a historic low.

Major Story

🇺🇸 ASSESSING THE RISKS OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE AFTER THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

Background

As the U.S. prepares for the upcoming election on 5 November—nearly four years after the Capitol insurrection—political tensions remain high. Former President Donald Trump is once again the Republican nominee, facing Vice President Kamala Harris, who replaced President Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket after Biden withdrew in July. Polls indicate a tightly contested race, with decisive outcomes likely hinging on six key battleground states: Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona.

Legacy of January 6

The events of 6 January 2021 loom large in this election. Trump, facing federal charges for his role in the insurrection, continues to reject accountability, referring to the day as a “day of love.” His rhetoric and reluctance to commit to a peaceful transition, should Harris win, raise concerns of potential unrest. While reforms have clarified electoral procedures and prosecutions have deterred some troublemakers, Trump’s influence remains potent.

Political Violence and Election Integrity

Despite legislative improvements, Trump’s warnings about left-wing violence and his suggestion of military action against perceived "enemies within" underscore lingering threats. Lone-wolf attacks also pose a danger, as two attempts on Trump’s life last year highlighted. Tensions are further stoked by both sides framing their opponents as existential threats.

The Stakes of the Election

While law enforcement has taken action against extremist groups, the Republican mainstreaming of election denialism signals a troubling shift. If Trump wins, the transfer of power is expected to be smooth, given Democrats’ commitment to peaceful transitions. However, a Harris victory could lead to unrest if Trump’s supporters contest the results. According to International Crisis Group’s Michael Wahid Hanna, responsible actors—including election officials and law enforcement—must uphold institutional integrity, avoid overreach, and prioritise de-escalation in maintaining order.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 Israel issues evacuation orders for entire Lebanese city: Israeli airstrikes have been hitting Baalbek in eastern Lebanon since Wednesday—killing at least 20 people—as reported by Lebanon’s Health Ministry. The Israeli military had earlier issued an evacuation order for the entire city, which includes an ancient Roman temple complex listed as a UNESCO World Heritage site. This leaves some 100’000 civilians with nowhere to go. Israel claimed to be targeting Hizbollah-linked sites. The ongoing conflict has displaced an estimated 1.2 million people within Lebanon. Since October 8, 2023, the Lebanese Health Ministry reports that more than 2,800 people have been killed and over 12,900 injured. Meanwhile, in Gaza, Israel's military operations have killed over 43,000 Palestinians according to local officials..

2️⃣ 🇸🇸 South Sudan’s political transitional period extended, threatening political violence: Leading South Sudanese academics and professionals have criticised the decision to extend South Sudan’s transitional period by two years, calling it an unconstitutional, unilateral move to avoid a legitimacy crisis. The extension, agreed upon by parties to the 2018 peace agreement, aimed to allow time to implement key provisions. However, civil society members and academics argue that this move undermines the mechanisms established by the agreement. Luka Biong Kuol, Director of the Institute of Peace, Development, and Security Studies at the University of Juba, emphasised that postponing the 2024 elections to December 2026 lacked legal grounding. He cited Article 8.4 of the peace agreement, which mandates a rigorous amendment process involving a two-thirds majority from relevant bodies, not just the Presidency. In his critique, analyst Jok Madut Jok accused the government of planning the extension for a year while pretending to pursue elections. He pointed to financial, legal, and logistical challenges as key barriers to holding elections.

3️⃣ 🇽🇰 🇺🇳 UN Security Council convenes for Kosovo talks: Caroline Ziadeh, the UN Special Representative for Kosovo, has briefed the Security Council on the latest UNMIK report covering developments from 16 March to 15 September. Her report is expected to focus on political and security challenges in Kosovo, including the lack of progress on EU-mediated agreements between Belgrade and Pristina. Tensions persist, as illustrated by the failed high-level meeting in June, where Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti set conditions not fully met by Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić. Ziadeh may also address escalating unilateral actions by Kosovo’s authorities, including police raids and closures of Serbian institutions, which have been criticised internationally. Several Council members are likely to stress the need for restraint and renewed dialogue, while divisions remain among key members regarding Kosovo’s status and the UNMIK mission’s future.