Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics Daily,

South Africa investigates the recruitment of its citizens into Russia’s war in Ukraine, Israel escalates strikes in southern Lebanon in defiance of a ceasefire, and Greece reignites fossil fuel exploration in the Mediterranean.

Our main story examines Kenya’s landmark decision to convert $3.5 billion in Chinese loans from US dollars to renminbi — the first agreement of its kind in Africa — and what it reveals about Nairobi’s economic strategy.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇦🇪 RSF accepts ceasefire proposal in Sudan: The UAE-backed Rapid Support Forces (RSF) announced its acceptance of a US-led proposal for a humanitarian ceasefire. The truce, brokered by the “Quad” — comprising the United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE — aims to alleviate the war’s catastrophic humanitarian toll and improve civilian protection. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have yet to formally respond, insisting previously that the RSF must withdraw from occupied cities before any truce.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇻🇪 US Senate rejects bid to limit President Trump’s war powers in Venezuela: The US Senate narrowly voted 49–51 to block a Democratic resolution that would have required President Donald Trump to seek congressional approval before expanding military action in Venezuela. The defeat, largely along party lines, leaves Trump free to continue strikes on alleged drug cartel targets and pursue broader operations against President Nicolás Maduro’s government.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 🇮🇱 Trump claims he authorised Israel’s first strike on Iran: The US President has publicly taken credit for Israel’s initial attack on Iran, contradicting earlier American claims that Tel Aviv acted unilaterally. Speaking to reporters on Thursday, Trump said, “Israel attacked first. That attack was very, very powerful. I was very much in charge of that.”

4️⃣ 🇬🇷 Greece revives fossil fuel exploration in the Mediterranean: As world leaders gathered in Brazil for the COP30 climate summit, Greece announced plans to restart fossil fuel exploration in the Mediterranean with U.S. backing. Under a new agreement, ExxonMobil will partner with Greek firms Energean and HELLENiQ ENERGY to search for natural gas northwest of Corfu — the first such project in more than forty years.

5️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇬🇧 Beijing accused of pressuring UK universities to curb critical China research: British academics researching human rights abuses in China say they have faced intimidation, censorship, and university pressure driven by Beijing’s influence over higher education funding. Several scholars reported institutional interference, death threats, and smear campaigns after publishing critical work on China’s government and its treatment of Uyghur Muslims.

Major Story

🇰🇪 🇨🇳 KENYA’S YUAN DEBT CONVERSION SIGNALS PRAGMATISM, NOT A PIVOT

Kenya’s decision to convert $3.5 billion of its Chinese loans from US dollars to renminbi marks the first such arrangement in Africa — and a pragmatic move to ease debt costs rather than a geopolitical statement. The original loans, contracted in 2014–15 to fund the Mombasa–Nairobi railway, had ballooned in cost as US interest rates rose. By switching to China’s 3 per cent rate and extending maturities, Nairobi expects to save about $215 million a year in servicing costs. The deal comes amid Kenya’s growing fiscal strain, with public debt nearly doubling as a share of GDP over the past decade and IMF-imposed austerity measures fuelling unrest.

Economic pragmatism over alignment

President William Ruto’s government faces elections in 2027 and is pursuing stability, not ideological alignment. The conversion helps manage liquidity while maintaining access to diverse financing, from Eurobonds and UAE loans to remittances and US trade. Despite rising engagement with Beijing, China is not Kenya’s only or even main creditor, and the move should be read as economic diversification, not de-dollarisation.

China’s ambitions and limits

For Beijing, the deal advances its goal of internationalising the yuan, yet Kenya’s central bank insists it will not replace the dollar as the main reserve. The renminbi accounts for barely 2 per cent of global reserves and around 10–15 per cent of Kenya’s own holdings. Still, local banks are beginning to offer yuan-denominated accounts, and Nairobi has floated the idea of issuing a “panda bond” in China’s domestic market to fund railway expansion.

Washington’s waning leverage

US–Kenya relations have cooled since 2024, strained by aid cuts, the expiry of AGOA, and criticism over domestic protests. Yet the US remains vital to Kenya’s economy through remittances, tourism, and exports. For Washington, Kenya’s debt realignment is a warning: unless it renews economic engagement, China will continue to fill the vacuum with its own pragmatic offers.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇿🇦 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 South Africa probes recruitment of citizens into Russia’s war in Ukraine: South Africa has launched an investigation after 17 of its citizens were found stranded in the Donbas region, allegedly coerced into joining Russian-linked mercenary units under false promises of lucrative jobs. Their plight underscores Russia’s growing use of deceptive recruitment across Africa, Asia, and Latin America to bolster its forces in Ukraine. 

2️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇱🇧 🇺🇳 Israel intensifies strikes in southern Lebanon: Israel carried out a new wave of airstrikes across southern Lebanon, in what Beirut and Hizbollah condemned as a blatant violation of the year-old ceasefire. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun denounced the attacks as “a full-fledged crime under international law.” UN peacekeepers warned that the escalating bombardments risk civilian lives. The near-daily Israeli ceasefire breaches have pushed the fragile truce to the brink of collapse.

Tips & Suggestions

Before we see you again:

We welcome your news tips and suggestions for regular sections, just let us know the stories you want to see covered here: [email protected]

Weekly Updates?

Want weekly updates as well as daily?

Subscribe to our sister publication Geopolitics Weekly here ⤵️

Grow Your Audience With Us

www.horizonatlasmedia.com