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📰 Chad braces for more refugees

📰 Chad braces for more refugees

and Syria’s trade collapse

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
November 15, 2024

Hello and welcome to Geopolitics Daily,

The escalating conflict in Sudan poses a growing threat to Eastern Chad, while Amnesty International reports that French military technology is being used by the sanctioned paramilitary group, the RSF. In the Middle East, the Houthi movement’s rising military influence within the Axis of Resistance has bolstered their political ambitions.

Today’s main focus explores the Challenges and Opportunities for Bangladesh’s Interim Government following the ousting of Sheikh Hasina, highlighting the delicate path forward for political and economic reform in the country.

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Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇹🇩 Intensified conflict in Sudan threatens Eastern Chad: Since April 2023, over 930,000 Sudanese refugees have fled to eastern Chad, most settling in Ouaddaï province. Already strained by poverty, resource scarcity, and communal tensions, the region’s population has more than doubled, intensifying these issues. Insufficient humanitarian aid has led to disputes among aid recipients and heightened conflicts between refugees and locals over limited resources, often along ethnic lines. With Sudan’s conflict escalating, Chad is expected to see even more arrivals, posing risks of further violence. To mitigate tensions, the Chadian government—supported by international partners—should urgently provide economic assistance and promote social cohesion, writes International Crisis Group. Enhanced security, improved water and infrastructure, and messages of solidarity from Chad’s leadership are critical to stabilizing Ouaddaï and preventing deeper divisions.

2️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 European Union prepares €300m defence materiel fund for Ukraine: The EU has initiated its first-ever funded joint arms procurement among member states, allocating €300 million for air defence systems, armoured vehicles, and artillery ammunition, part of which will support Ukraine. Previously, the EU’s defence aid to Ukraine relied on ad hoc contributions outside its budget. European Commission Vice-President Margrethe Vestager noted the plan aims to strengthen the EU’s defence industry and Ukraine’s capabilities. Although the EU missed its initial target to deliver one million artillery shells to Kyiv by March 2024, diplomacy chief Josep Borrell pledged this would be achieved by year-end. Meanwhile, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha expressed hope that Marco Rubio, Donald Trump’s pick for U.S. Secretary of State, would adopt a “peace through strength” stance. Rubio, once a proponent of assertive U.S. foreign policy, has recently shifted towards Trump’s “America First” agenda.

3️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇫🇷 🇦🇪 French military technology reportedly being used by RSF in Sudan: Amnesty International has called on France to investigate the potential misuse of its military systems by Sudan’s paramilitary forces, which could violate an arms embargo. The group identified the French-made Galix defence system being used on armoured vehicles, manufactured by the UAE, a key supplier of arms to Sudan's Rapid Support Force (RSF). While France can legally export weapons to the UAE, Amnesty argues that French authorities and arms companies have a responsibility to monitor whether the Galix system is then illegally transferred to Sudan when mounted on UAE-produced Nimr Ajban vehicles. The ongoing conflict between the RSF and Sudanese government forces has killed tens of thousands and displaced millions since April 2023. Both the UN and EU have imposed arms embargoes on Sudan, particularly in Darfur.

4️⃣ 🇲🇽 🇺🇸 Mexico–U.S. security cooperation efforts under strain, says U.S. ambassador: U.S. Ambassador to Mexico—Ken Salazar—chastised the country's leadership, stating that Mexico is unsafe and accusing officials of downplaying the pervasive violence. He urged the government to acknowledge the problem, increase security investments, and strengthen cooperation with the U.S. "To say there is no problem is to deny reality," he asserted. In response, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum rejected the ambassador’s comments, emphasising that while Mexico is open to coordination with the U.S., it would not accept subordination. She pointed out Salazar's contradictory statements, noting his praise for Mexico's cooperation. This exchange comes as Sheinbaum continues her predecessor's security strategy, focusing on economic opportunities for youth rather than direct confrontation with gangs. Salazar’s remarks reflect growing frustration over Mexico’s crime management, particularly its reliance on the military and lack of funding for police reform.

5️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇱🇧 Syria-Lebanon trade threatened by spiralling conflict: Since Syria’s internal conflict began, its reliance on Lebanon for trade has grown, with Lebanon now accounting for 16% of Syria’s exports, up from just 3% in 2010. Legal trade is limited to specific crossings, including Masnaa, which handles over half of Syria–Lebanon commerce due to its strategic location. However, recent Israeli attacks on Masnaa, Matraba, and Joussieh crossings have created significant disruptions. The Masnaa bombing in October severed the main trade route, raising land shipping costs by 40% and spiking Syrian prices for goods like fuel, alcohol, and cigarettes. Gasoline on Syria's black market has surged to 30,000 SYP per litre (about $2 USD). Lebanon is also impacted, facing costlier exports to other Arab countries via less efficient routes. Uncertain repairs reflect concerns over further strikes amid ongoing regional tensions.

Major Story

🇧🇩 CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR BANGLADESH’S INTERIM GOVERNMENT

The interim government in Bangladesh—led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus—Faces the monumental task of reforming the country after the ousting of Sheikh Hasina. Taking power on 8 August, Yunus's administration must navigate widespread public support while managing high expectations for rapid political, governance, and economic changes. Bangladesh's deep institutional decay, worsened by years of authoritarian rule, presents significant challenges, particularly in restoring law and order and rebuilding public institutions.

Public Support and Economic Struggles

While Yunus's government enjoys broad backing, the economic situation is dire, further strained by ongoing protests and uncertainty. Restoring public trust, particularly after Hasina's crackdown, will require swift action. However, the interim government faces significant hurdles in managing the complexity of governance, balancing political rivalries, and making unpopular decisions, such as addressing corruption and economic reforms that may impact vulnerable groups.

A Critical Moment for Reforms

This period offers Bangladesh a unique opportunity to break from the authoritarian practices of the past. The interim administration must push for structural reforms, including constitutional changes and enhanced checks on power. If successful, these changes could safeguard against a return to cronyism and political manipulation. However, failure to act swiftly and effectively could result in the army stepping in or an early election that might bring another entrenched party into power.

The Path Forward

Yunus’s administration must deliver visible reforms quickly, such as tackling corruption and improving basic services, to maintain public support, writes International Crisis Group. Consensus-building with political groups and civil society is key, alongside foreign assistance for economic and judicial reforms. The international community, particularly India, must also play a role in ensuring Bangladesh’s transition toward a stable, democratic future.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇾🇪 The Houthi movement’s military ascendancy as an Axis of Resistance constituent: In the wake of Israel’s assassination of Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on Sept. 27, the Houthis are emerging as a possible successor within the ‘Axis of Resistance,’ according to Amwaj Media. However, Yemen’s geographic distance from Israel and the Houthis' lack of direct experience against Tel Aviv make this goal challenging. Israel’s recent strikes against Hizbollah have degraded the resistance network, creating new dynamics, including raising the spectre of conflict with Iran. Over seven years of conflict, the Houthis have amassed military strength, with support from Iran and control over northern Yemen since 2014. Centralised under leader Abdul-Malik Al-Houthi, the Houthis benefit from swift decision-making and a unified structure, positioning them as a cohesive force in the region—even if their ambitions to replace Hizbollah remain, for now, a distant goal.

2️⃣ 🇧🇦 🇷🇸 Bosnian-Serb general makes confession of Srebrenica massacre complicity: Radislav Krstić, convicted by the International Criminal Tribunal for the 1995 Srebrenica massacre, has admitted to "aiding and abetting the genocide." However, his confession has been met with scepticism. Survivors and families of the over 8,300 victims of the massacre, along with advocacy groups like Mothers of Srebrenica, suspect that the admission is a strategy to secure early release from prison. They point to similar cases where war criminals confessed to gain leniency, only to retract their statements once freed.