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📰 China brokers Myanmar truce

📰 China brokers Myanmar truce

and Putin, Xi’s big call

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
January 22, 2025

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Russia is in the spotlight today as Moscow strengthens security and economic ties with the Central African Republic, while Presidents Putin and Xi reaffirm their close partnership following Trump’s inauguration. Myanmar welcomes the opportunity for conflict de–escalation after China brokers a ceasefire, while Kenya bolsters its garrison in Haiti.

Our lead story focuses on U.N. peacekeeping, where the looming prospect of reduced U.S. funding exacerbates existing challenges and prompts reflection on the path ahead.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇲🇲 China brokers Myanmar ceasefire: Myanmar’s military and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) rebel group have signed a ceasefire, mediated by China. This marks their second truce in just over a year, following the collapse of a January 2023 pact. China, Myanmar’s key ally, has strategic and economic interests in the region and is concerned about instability near its border. Beijing urged all parties to uphold the agreement, reduce tensions, and pursue dialogue, offering its support for peace talks in northern Myanmar. The MNDAA, composed of the Kokang ethnic Chinese minority, had unilaterally called for a ceasefire under Chinese mediation after its October 2023 offensive weakened Myanmar’s military, which has faced civil unrest since its 2021 coup. The ceasefire’s long-term success remains uncertain.

2️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 Putin, Xi emphasise close relations after Trump inauguration: A day after President Trump’s inauguration pledge to be a "peacemaker and unifier," Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping reaffirmed their partnership in a video call. The two leaders discussed deepening ties to counter Western influence, highlighting shared goals of restructuring a global order centered around the West. Xi emphasized the importance of mutual support and safeguarding their nations' interests, while Putin praised their alignment on relations between great powers. The call underscored a “no limits” partnership declared in 2022, with trade between the two nations reaching a record $240 billion last year. While China has bolstered Russia's economy through trade and resources, Beijing has also gleaned strategies for circumventing Western sanctions, likely preparing for potential conflicts over Taiwan. Both leaders reaffirmed their commitment to challenging U.S. dominance globally.

3️⃣ 🇳🇬 🇧🇷 Nigeria accedes to BRICS ‘partnership’: Nigeria has become the ninth partner country of BRICS, joining Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Thailand, Uganda, and Uzbekistan. Brazil’s Foreign Ministry highlighted Nigeria’s shared priorities with BRICS, citing its status as Africa’s most populous nation, a leading economy, and a major oil producer. The country’s role in promoting South-South cooperation and global governance reform aligns with BRICS goals during Brazil’s presidency. While the partnership, established in October 2024, permits Nigeria to engage in BRICS events, it does not include voting rights. BRICS, now representing over half the global population and 45% of GDP, aims to introduce a dollar-independent payment system. This comes amid past U.S. threats of tariffs against the bloc for challenging dollar dominance.

4️⃣ 🇭🇹 🇰🇪 Kenya deploys additional 217 police to Haiti task force: Kenya has sent an additional 217 police officers to Haiti as part of a multinational effort to combat gang violence, bringing its total deployment to over 600. Interior Minister Kipchumba Murkomen praised the mission’s progress in curbing violence, describing Kenya’s involvement as “historic and unwavering.” President William Ruto has pledged to contribute 1,000 personnel to the U.N.-backed initiative. Gang violence has displaced over 700,000 Haitians and led to more than 5,600 deaths in 2024 alone, with thousands injured or kidnapped, according to U.N. reports.

5️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 President Aoun stresses urgency of Israeli withdrawal from South Lebanon: Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun emphasized to UN Secretary-General António Guterres the urgent need for Israel to withdraw its military forces, as required by the ceasefire agreement ending the Israel-Hizbollah war in November. During their meeting in Beirut, Aoun condemned ongoing Israeli violations of Lebanese sovereignty and the ceasefire terms. The agreement, brokered by the U.S. and France, mandates Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon and Hizbollah’s disarmament in the area within 60 days. Guterres pledged the UN’s full commitment to ensuring Israel’s compliance, while criticizing continued Israeli strikes on alleged Hizbollah fighters as breaches of the accord and relevant UN resolutions.

Major Story

🇺🇳 🇺🇸 U.N. PEACEKEEPING: U.S. INVESTMENT, CHALLENGES, AND THE PATH FORWARD

The United Nations, established in 1945 to safeguard future generations from the scourge of war, has been pivotal in advancing global peace and security. Among its most notable contributions is U.N. peacekeeping, which has been a cornerstone of international conflict response for nearly 80 years. Despite its significant achievements, U.N. peacekeeping faces challenges stemming from geopolitical dynamics, operational inefficiencies, and waning global confidence, as outlined by New Lines Institute’s Cait Dallaire.

The Role and Principles of U.N. Peacekeeping

U.N. peacekeeping assists conflict-affected nations in transitioning toward peace. Governed by the principles of consent, impartiality, and limited use of force, these missions aim to create the conditions necessary for political solutions to take root. They involve both military and civilian personnel from 121 countries, with operations focusing on protecting civilians, supporting disarmament, and fostering dialogue. However, disparities exist between troop-contributing countries (T/PCCs), which often lack resources, and major financial donors like the United States, which provide funding rather than personnel.

Studies demonstrate that U.N. peacekeeping reduces the duration of conflicts and their recurrence, fostering inclusive political solutions. Early missions were authorized under Chapter 6 of the U.N. Charter, emphasizing peaceful mediation. Over time, more robust Chapter 7 mandates have empowered peacekeeping forces to act against aggression, reflecting the changing nature of conflicts.Beyond traditional peacekeeping, these missions now encompass community-driven initiatives such as supporting women entrepreneurs, promoting human rights, and aiding marginalized groups.

Geopolitical Dynamics and the U.S. Role in Peacekeeping

U.N. peacekeeping is not without flaws. Success hinges on political will, which often wanes over protracted conflicts. Missions sometimes become tools for maintaining fragile regimes rather than fostering impartial peace. Additionally, disinformation campaigns, particularly in Africa, undermine U.N. credibility, while geopolitical rivalries influence Security Council decisions, leading to mandates misaligned with ground realities.

The United States, as the largest financial contributor, invests significantly in peacekeeping, recognizing its cost-effectiveness compared to unilateral military interventions. Through initiatives like the Global Peace Operations Initiative (GPOI), the U.S. enhances T/PCC capabilities while reinforcing its own security interests. However, individuals within the Trump orbit have suggested that the future of U.S. funding for peacekeeping operations—and the United Nations more broadly—is uncertain.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇬🇭 Ghana’s AngloGold Ashanti mine attacked: A Ghanaian miners' association reported that soldiers killed nine unarmed individuals at an AngloGold Ashanti mine in Obuasi on Saturday night, while the military claimed the deaths were due to a firefight with illegal miners. Kofi Adams, the local chairman of the Ghana National Association of Small-Scale Miners, stated that the victims were not armed and fourteen others were severely injured. The military had earlier claimed that around 60 illegal miners armed with rifles breached the mine’s security and opened fire on a patrol, leading to a shootout. Ghana's President, John Dramani Mahama, ordered an immediate investigation, and the government has requested AngloGold Ashanti to cover medical and burial costs for the victims.

2️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇨🇫 Russia, Central African Republic expand security, economic ties: The CAR, led by President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, recently held discussions in Moscow to deepen bilateral relations with President Vladimir Putin. This meeting reinforced Russia's growing influence in Africa and its commitment to strengthening ties through security cooperation, economic partnerships, and humanitarian aid. Since 2017, Russia has supported CAR’s fight against political instability and terrorism, providing military equipment, training, and deploying instructors. Analysts suggest a permanent Russian military base could follow. Economically, bilateral trade, though modest, has grown, with CAR exporting agricultural products while importing Russian grain, fuel, and machinery. Russia’s interest in CAR’s untapped resources, including gold, diamonds, and uranium, complements CAR’s need for investment in agriculture and infrastructure.