Geopolitics Daily
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📰 China eyes Taiwan

📰 China eyes Taiwan

and Black Sea ceasefire hopes

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
March 26, 2025

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Hello and welcome back.

Today, China mulls joining a proposed Ukraine peacekeeping mission, a U.S. communications leak raises alarm among Five Eyes allies, and Mozambique’s President Daniel Chapo meets with the opposition leader after months of post-election unrest.

Our main story explores how shifting transatlantic dynamics are forcing the European Union to reassess its foreign policy direction.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 🇺🇸 🇸🇦 Black Sea Ceasefire hinges on sanctions relief for Russia: Russia and Ukraine have agreed to reduce hostilities in the Black Sea following indirect negotiations facilitated by the U.S. in Saudi Arabia. However, Moscow says a full maritime ceasefire will only begin if Western sanctions on Russian agricultural exports are eased. While Washington is reviewing these conditions, President Zelenskyy criticised any potential concessions, warning they would undermine Kyiv’s leverage as the wider land conflict continues. Though both sides committed to halting strikes on energy infrastructure and exploring a lasting peace, core disputes—including territorial claims and Russian control of Ukrainian regions—remain unresolved, casting doubt on the durability of these early steps toward de-escalation.

2️⃣ 🇹🇷 Imamoglu wins landslide victory from behind in presidential primary: Nearly 15 million people voted for imprisoned Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu in a presidential primary organised by Turkiye’s main opposition party, the CHP, according to municipal officials. The party reported that 1.7 million registered members and over 13 million non-members backed Imamoglu as their candidate for the 2028 election. His arrest last week on corruption charges, widely viewed as politically motivated, has sparked nationwide protests. While the government insists the judiciary is impartial, opposition leaders argue that Imamoglu’s rising popularity and the looming primary prompted his detention, with CHP leader Ozgur Ozel calling the result a direct challenge to President Erdogan’s legitimacy.

3️⃣ 🇩🇪 Germany poised for hawkish migration and defence policies under proposed coalition deal: Germany’s likely incoming coalition—comprising Friedrich Merz’s centre-right CDU/CSU and the centre-left SPD—has agreed to implement the country’s most stringent migration reforms in decades, according to a leaked draft agreement seen by POLITICO. The proposed measures include significantly expanding migrant detention capacity, suspending family reunification for two years, broadening the list of “safe” countries for deportations, scrapping mandatory legal aid before repatriation, and introducing automatic deportation for migrants with prison sentences. The deal follows the far-right AfD’s historic second-place finish in February’s election and signals a broader political shift. However, the SPD continues to oppose CDU plans for offshore asylum processing centres. On defence, talks remain unresolved: the CDU wants to raise military spending to 3.5% of GDP and reintroduce conscription, while the SPD prefers voluntary service and more modest spending increases. Final coalition negotiations are ongoing.

4️⃣ 🇸🇩 Hundreds of civilians killed as SAF bombards North Darfur, as al-Burhan begins new offensive: More than 100 civilians were killed and dozens injured in a Sudanese army airstrike on Tuesday in North Darfur, according to rights group Emergency Lawyers. The strike targeted Tura market, a crowded civilian area north of El-Fasher, and was described as a “horrific massacre” and a grave breach of international humanitarian law. Activists shared footage of the destruction, and the attack has sparked widespread condemnation, including from the National Umma Party, which labelled it a war crime. Both groups are demanding independent investigations, sanctions, and an immediate halt to strikes targeting civilian populations in the war-torn region.

5️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇹🇼 🇺🇸 Beijing making ‘steady but uneven’ progress on capabilities to capture Taiwan, says report: China remains the foremost military and cyber threat to the United States, according to the latest U.S. intelligence assessment. The report warns that Beijing is advancing its military capabilities—especially those relevant to Taiwan—while enhancing its ability to disrupt U.S. infrastructure, space assets, and cyber networks. The Chinese military is also exploring the use of AI tools like large language models to conduct influence operations and digital attacks. Although China faces internal challenges such as corruption, economic stagnation, and demographic pressures, the intelligence community asserts it is still working toward displacing the U.S. as the global leader in artificial intelligence by 2030.

Major Story

🇪🇺 🇺🇸 THE EU AT A CROSSROADS: RESPONDING TO WASHINGTON’S NEW FOREIGN POLICY

Donald Trump’s return to power has disrupted global diplomacy, with the U.S embracing political realism and sidelining long-standing liberal internationalist norms. His administration’s transactional approach, exemplified by ceasefire overtures to Russia and the marginalisation of European allies in key negotiations, has left EU leaders scrambling. Riyadh and Jeddah, not Brussels or Geneva, are now the stage for strategic dialogue—underscoring Europe’s diplomatic erosion and Washington’s new foreign policy doctrine.

European Disunity and Missed Opportunities

Despite attempts to rally around militarised deterrence and increased defence spending, the EU’s fragmented structure prevents it from mounting a unified, credible security strategy. Proposals like a European peacekeeping force or a nuclear umbrella are disconnected from both reality and capability. Trump’s sidelining of NATO and coercive diplomacy with Kyiv forced European leaders to fall in line, exposing their lack of agency and overreliance on American protection.

Path Forward: Reclaiming Strategic Autonomy

Rebuilding diplomatic channels with Russia and reclaiming influence through economic pragmatism and neighbourly diplomacy are urgent imperatives for the EU, writes analyst William J. Jones. European leaders should refocus on their core strength—economic integration—and reorient foreign policy to reflect geographical and material realities. A realist, interest-based posture rooted in sovereignty, stability, and multipolar cooperation is the only sustainable way forward in the face of unpredictable U.S. leadership and shifting global power dynamics.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇲🇿 Mozambique president, Daniel Chapo, meets opposition leader after months of violent clashes: Mozambique’s President Daniel Chapo has met with opposition leader Venancio Mondlane for the first time since the disputed October 9 election. The long-awaited dialogue, held at Maputo’s Joaquim Chissano Conference Center, resulted in agreement on three key points: an end to political violence, free medical care and compensation for victims and families, and the release of detained protesters. Mondlane, who still claims electoral victory, described the meeting as respectful and constructive, despite ongoing legal investigations against him. President Chapo also signalled openness to reviewing the electoral law, aiming to prevent future crises—a move welcomed by business leaders hoping for national stability.

2️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇺🇦 China considers participation in Ukraine peacekeeping mission: China is reportedly considering joining a proposed peacekeeping mission for Ukraine led by European powers, according to Welt. EU diplomats believe Beijing’s involvement could make the initiative more acceptable to Moscow, given President Xi Jinping’s close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin. While Russia continues to reject NATO troop deployments in Ukraine, Chinese participation might shift that stance. The peacekeeping plan—championed by Britain and France and supported by allies like Canada and Turkey—aims to secure Ukraine after a future peace agreement. U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer confirmed further military planning will take place in London this week, while French President Emmanuel Macron is preparing to host European leaders on March 27 to discuss regional security and Ukraine.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇦🇺 🇨🇦 🇳🇿 U.S. communications leak sparks concern among Five Eyes allies: A major intelligence blunder by U.S. officials—accidentally including a journalist in a chat discussing secret military operations in Yemen—has strained trust within the Five Eyes alliance. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney described the breach as “serious” and warned allies may need to become more self-reliant in defence matters. The leak has raised quiet concern in the UK, Australia, and New Zealand, though official responses have been cautious. Experts say the incident underscores deeper unease with the Trump administration’s handling of sensitive information and its break from established global norms, prompting calls for heightened vigilance among close allies.