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📰 China, Russia, Iran hold trilateral nuclear talks

📰 China, Russia, Iran hold trilateral nuclear talks

and Assad’s fall sparks chaos

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
March 14, 2025

Hello and welcome to Geopolitics Daily,

Today's developments see Sudan and Kenya at loggerheads over Nairobi's diplomatic outreach to the RSF, while Taiwan urges stronger measures against China's growing influence on the island.

In Syria, a constitutional declaration is signed, Shia communities face an uncertain future under al-Sharaa, and sectarian violence in Latakia threatens the country’s post-Assad stability.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇷🇺 🇮🇷 China, Russia, Iran hold trilateral nuclear talks: China hosts discussions with Russia and Iran to address Iran’s nuclear programme, the Foreign Ministry announced. The meeting in Beijing will be led by Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu, with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov Sergey Alexeevich and Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi representing their nations. The officials will exchange views on the nuclear issue and broader regional concerns. Meanwhile, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei dismissed U.S. pressure for negotiations, following reports that President Donald Trump urged Tehran to engage in talks on a new nuclear agreement.

2️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇿🇦 🇲🇼 🇹🇿 South Africa, Malawi, Tanzania to withdraw troops from eastern DR Congo: African leaders have announced the withdrawal of troops deployed to eastern Congo under the Southern African Development Community (SADC) mission. The decision follows growing public opposition after M23 rebels killed at least 17 peacekeepers in January. The withdrawal, set to be phased, coincides with planned peace talks between the Congolese government and M23 in Angola. Meanwhile, the conflict in mineral-rich eastern Congo remains complex, with numerous armed groups, including M23—backed by Rwanda—continuing to battle for control, exacerbating one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises with over seven million people displaced.

3️⃣ 🇹🇷 🇺🇸 Türkiye stands to benefit from ‘Trump doctrine’: On February 28, 2025, President Donald Trump inadvertently launched what is now known as the Trump Doctrine during a heated exchange with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. This doctrine signals a shift in U.S. foreign policy, emphasizing that America will no longer be Europe's primary defender, and nations must take on greater responsibility for their defense budgets. If the U.S. is forced to provide defense assistance, the receiving country must repay the costs. This policy echoes the ancient Delian League, where Athens required financial contributions for defense support. One significant beneficiary of this shift is Türkiye, which stands to gain from the increasing importance of NATO coordination, particularly in the wake of U.S. policy changes. As a self-sufficient nation strategically positioned at the intersection of Europe, Russia, and the Middle East, Türkiye's role in European security becomes more vital, and its potential EU membership is now more crucial than ever.

4️⃣ 🇸🇾 Syria signs declaration for five-year transition period: Syria’s interim leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, has declared the beginning of a "new history" for the country after signing a constitutional declaration that establishes a five-year transitional period and guarantees rights such as freedom of expression and women’s equality. The document follows the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s government by Islamist-led rebels three months ago and comes amid ongoing violence, including recent massacres of Alawite civilians. The declaration criminalises support for the former regime, maintains Islamic jurisprudence as the primary legal source, and grants the president sole emergency powers. However, the Kurdish-led administration in northeastern Syria has criticised the framework, calling it undemocratic and exclusionary, while a UN envoy expressed hope that it could provide a legal foundation for a credible political transition.

5️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 UN decries genocidal attacks on women’s healthcare in Gaza: A UN inquiry has accused Israel of committing "genocidal acts" in Gaza by deliberately targeting women’s healthcare facilities and using sexual violence as a war tactic. The report, released by the Geneva-based Independent International Commission of Inquiry, states that Israel intentionally destroyed Gaza’s primary fertility clinic and blocked essential reproductive healthcare supplies. It concluded that these actions were aimed at preventing births among Palestinians, constituting genocide under international law. Israel has dismissed the allegations as unfounded, while former UN humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths called the evidence “incontrovertible” but refrained from predicting legal consequences at the ICJ or ICC.

Major Story

🇸🇾 RISING TENSIONS IN POST-ASSAD SYRIA: SECTARIANISM AND REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS

Recent violence in Syria’s coastal regions marks a pivotal moment in the country’s fragile transition. The massacre of hundreds of Alawites and other minorities, reportedly carried out by forces aligned with Ahmad al-Sharaa’s government, underscores the deep sectarian rifts that remain unresolved since Bashar al-Assad’s fall. The attacks, led by remnants of the former regime, appear to be an attempt to destabilize the emerging order or carve out autonomous zones similar to Suwayda and northeastern Syria. The response from the authorities—including the formation of investigative and peace-building committees—highlights the urgency of addressing transitional justice to prevent further descent into sectarian strife.

The Role of Ghiath Dalla

Brigadier General Ghiath Dalla, a former Assad-era military officer, has emerged as a key figure in orchestrating the insurgency. Once a commander within the elite 4th Armored Division, Dalla was closely linked to Iran-backed militias and played a significant role in wartime atrocities. Following Assad’s downfall, he did not retreat but instead helped form the Military Council for the Liberation of Syria, uniting pro-Assad factions under a new insurgent umbrella. His leadership in the recent attacks suggests a broader strategy to challenge Sharaa’s government and reignite loyalist resistance.

Syria’s Minority Question and the Path Ahead

The violence against Alawites complicates Sharaa’s efforts to unify Syria’s diverse communities. His recent agreement with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) signals a pragmatic approach, yet broader reconciliation remains a challenge. Moving forward, Syria’s stability will depend on fostering inclusive governance, ensuring security for all communities, and managing external pressures from Iran, Israel, and regional powers. Without meaningful national reconciliation, the risk of prolonged instability remains high.

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1️⃣ 🇸🇾 Shia populations in Syria face uncertain future under al-Sharaa, writes Amwaj: The fall of Bashar Al-Assad has brought uncertainty to Syria's Alawite and Shiite communities, which previously enjoyed privileged status under Ba'athist rule. With the rise of Sunni Islamist dominance, Syria faces a departure from past power structures where minorities were central to the government’s religious, military, and political strategies. The Assad regime’s favoritism towards Alawites and Shiites led to demographic shifts, economic imbalances, and heightened sectarian tensions. Iran's intervention, initially to protect Shiites, deepened these divides and sparked a sense of "Shiite-ization," contributing to feelings of Iranian occupation among many Syrians. Assad's ouster has left a leadership vacuum within the Shiite community, exacerbating security concerns and sectarian strife. Without addressing these sectarian divides, Syria risks further instability, and reconciliation will be vital to its future stability.

2️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇰🇪 Sudan’s foreign ministry accuses Kenya of RSF collusion: Images of Kenyan Vice President Kithure Kindiki welcoming RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan "Hemedti" Dagalo at Nairobi’s Jomo Kenyatta International Airport have triggered a diplomatic storm. Sudan condemned Kenya’s engagement with the RSF—accused of atrocities by the UN—branding it an irresponsible move that legitimises war crimes. This follows Kenya's February 2024 hosting of RSF figures, where they signed a charter to establish a rival government in Sudan, drawing criticism from the U.S., U.N., and Arab mediators. Kenya, facing growing international scrutiny, also hosted M23 rebels despite their role in the DRC conflict, prompting Kinshasa to recall its ambassador and expel Kenyan troops. With accusations of human rights violations—including the abduction and deportation of political dissidents—Kenya's reputation as a neutral peace broker is increasingly in question.

3️⃣ 🇹🇼 🇨🇳 Taiwan calls for tougher measures on China’s ‘influence campaign’ on the island: Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te has accused China of intensifying espionage and infiltration efforts, targeting various sectors of Taiwanese society, including organised crime, media figures, and law enforcement. In response, his government has proposed 17 countermeasures, including stricter vetting of Chinese visitors and enhanced legal actions against espionage. Lai cited a sharp rise in espionage cases, with 64 individuals charged last year, many of them military personnel. He also warned that China’s influence campaigns, including psychological warfare and pressure on Taiwanese entertainers, pose a growing threat to Taiwan’s security, democracy, and sovereignty.