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📰 China’s deal stirs NZ fears

📰 China’s deal stirs NZ fears

and Sudan’s army advances

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
February 13, 2025

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In international legal developments, the UN Human Rights Council is investigating human rights violations in eastern DRC, while the International Criminal Court denounces Trump’s sanctions, reaffirming its commitment to pursuing justice.

In the Indo-Pacific, Bangladesh’s interim government has begun a purge of the Awami League, while the Cook Islands' impending strategic partnership with China continues to strain relations with New Zealand.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇧🇩 Bangladesh’s interim government initiates purge of Awami League, over 1’000 arrested: Bangladeshi security forces have arrested 1,308 individuals under "Operation Devil Hunt," a nationwide crackdown launched to curb escalating unrest and vandalism. Ordered by interim leader Muhammad Yunus on February 8, 2025, the operation followed violent clashes in Gazipur, where student activists were injured during an attack on an Awami League leader’s home. Among those detained, 81 are linked to the ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League. The unrest peaked on Friday night when 14 people, reportedly involved in anti-Awami League demonstrations, were injured while attempting to vandalize the residence of former Liberation War Affairs Minister Mozammel Haque.

2️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 🇺🇳 Israeli offensive has displaced 40’000 in Palestine’s West Bank, says UN: UNRWA has warned of a sharp rise in the forced displacement of Palestinians in the occupied West Bank, with Israel expelling 40,000 people in recent weeks. Since launching a large-scale military operation on 21 January—days after the Gaza ceasefire began—Israel has expanded its assaults from Jenin to Tulkarm, Tubas, and other refugee camps, killing dozens of people. UNRWA reports that many camps are now nearly empty, marking the most prolonged Israeli campaign in the West Bank since the Second Intifada. International legal and humanitarian experts argue that Israel’s operations aim to dismantle Palestinian resistance, accelerate land annexation, and erase the refugee issue, all with U.S. support.

3️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇸🇾 Hardliners in Tehran question al-Sharaa’s legitimacy as interim president continues regional diplomatic tour: Ahmed al-Sharaa, now Syria’s interim president and former Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham leader, has welcomed numerous foreign delegations to Damascus, but Iranian officials remain conspicuously absent. While Tehran’s hardliners mock his legitimacy, al-Sharaa has secured early support from the US and EU, leading Washington to drop its $10 million bounty on him and Brussels to ease sanctions. His first official visits to Saudi Arabia and Turkiye signal a pivot towards Gulf Arab states, seeking financial backing for Syria’s reconstruction. Meanwhile, Iran, having invested billions to prop up the Assad regime, faces a strategic dilemma—whether to engage with the new leadership or fuel resistance, especially as al-Sharaa’s government bans Iranian imports and bars Iranians from entering Syria, further deepening the rift.

4️⃣ 🇨🇰 🇨🇳 🇳🇿 Cook Islands set to sign strategic partnership with China, possibly violating constitutional arrangement with New Zealand: Tensions have emerged between New Zealand and the Cook Islands over the latter’s impending Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with China, which is set to be signed without New Zealand’s prior review. Wellington argues that, under the 2001 Joint Centenary Declaration, consultation on defence and security matters is required, though Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown insists the agreement does not include security provisions and that New Zealand’s involvement is unnecessary. Brown maintains the Cook Islands' right to independent foreign relations, noting that New Zealand did not consult with the Cook Islands when signing similar agreements. The Cook Islands, which has had diplomatic ties with China since 1997, seeks Chinese support in areas like trade, infrastructure, and maritime development—without taking on additional debt.

5️⃣ 🇸🇩 Sudan’s foreign ministry appeals to international community for ‘day-after’ support: Sudan’s foreign ministry has called on the international community, including the UN, AU, and Arab League, to back its post-conflict roadmap aimed at restoring stability and resuming the political transition. This appeal follows the army’s recent territorial gains in Sennar, Al-Jazirah, North Kordofan, and much of Khartoum, leaving Darfur and West Kordofan as the last contested supply routes. The roadmap proposes a national dialogue, amendments to the constitutional document, and the appointment of a civilian prime minister, while rejecting negotiations with the RSF unless they disarm and withdraw from key regions. Any ceasefire, the ministry insists, is contingent on lifting the RSF siege of El Fasher and vacating Khartoum, West Kordofan, and Darfur.

Major Story

🇨🇳 ASSESSING CHINA’S MILITARY CAPACITY AND SOFT POWER CHALLENGES

Military spending is a key indicator of a nation’s military strength. China’s 2024 defence budget is set at 1.69 trillion yuan (USD 233.2 billion), reflecting a 7.2% annual increase. Over the past decade, China’s defence spending has consistently grown by no less than 6% annually, even amid economic downturns. Ranking second only to the United States, China’s expenditure surpasses the combined military budgets of Russia, India, and Saudi Arabia. This sustained investment has facilitated the acquisition of modern weaponry, infrastructure development, and troop training, significantly enhancing the country’s military capabilities.

Technological Modernisation & Structural Reforms

China’s military transformation has been driven by advances in information technology, artificial intelligence, and cyber warfare. Inspired by the U.S. military’s technological superiority in past conflicts, China has shifted from mechanisation to informatization and now towards intelligent warfare. The establishment of the Strategic Support Force in 2015 marked a milestone, integrating cyber, space, intelligence, and electronic warfare capabilities. In 2024, this force was further segmented into specialised units, demonstrating China’s commitment to high-tech military innovation. A major overhaul in 2015 streamlined China’s military command structure, replacing seven regional commands with five theatre commands. Bureaucratic inefficiencies were reduced, enabling a more agile and effective military. This restructuring aligns with President Xi Jinping’s vision of a modernised force capable of joint operations and rapid decision-making.

Limited Global Cultural Influence, Political and Ideological Barriers

China struggles to gain global cultural traction. This is partly due to rigid and state-controlled messaging that fails to resonate with international audiences. Additionally, global media is dominated by Western outlets, limiting China’s ability to shape global narratives. China’s governance model, contrasting with Western democratic ideals, has contributed to its soft power deficit. Ideological conflicts, particularly over human rights and political freedoms, fuel negative perceptions, further amplified by Western media and diplomatic discourse. China’s assertive foreign policy, often perceived as confrontational, has also hindered its global appeal. Diplomatic strategies prioritising national interests, including disputes in the South China Sea and the so-called "Wolf Warrior" diplomacy, have alienated neighbouring nations and reinforced global scepticism.

Soft Power Setbacks in a Divided World

Rising global nationalism and increasing ideological divides further constrain China’s soft power outreach. Western countries have closed Confucius Institutes, viewing them as propaganda tools, while initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative are often framed as geopolitical power plays rather than cooperative development efforts.

While China has made significant strides in military modernisation, its global influence remains constrained by ideological divisions and perceptions of aggressive diplomacy. Balancing military strength with an effective soft power strategy will be crucial in shaping China’s global role in the years ahead.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇻🇺 🇬🇺 Vanuatu, Guam among states most endangered by the climate security nexus: Effective climate security strategies must consider local political and economic contexts, as climate change interacts with broader environmental and structural challenges, writes Toda Institute. A study of Vanuatu and Guam highlights how similar climate impacts—such as rising sea levels and extreme weather—translate into distinct human security risks due to economic differences and political status. While Vanuatu’s reliance on subsistence agriculture makes food security vulnerable to storms and shifting diets, Guam’s economic integration into the U.S. has entrenched dependency on processed foods. Furthermore, Vanuatu's sovereignty grants it a voice in climate policy but limits migration options, whereas Guam’s U.S. affiliation facilitates mobility but marginalizes it in global climate discussions.

2️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇨🇩 UN Human Rights Council investigates abuses in eastern DRC: The humanitarian crisis in eastern DRC has reached catastrophic levels, with over 3,000 dead and thousands more injured. The destruction and looting of supplies—particularly during the Battle of Goma—have severely impacted relief efforts, leaving hospitals overwhelmed and essential medicines in short supply. Luc Lamprière, director of the International NGO Forum, describes the situation as dire, highlighting the alarming number of sexual violence victims, including children, in urgent need of medical and psychological care. With humanitarian workers struggling to sustain operations, the Forum stresses the immediate necessity of reopening Goma airport to establish an airlift for vital aid delivery.

3️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 🇺🇸 ICC condemns Trump sanctions, pledges to continue its work: ICC member states, including the UK, France, and Germany, have reaffirmed their "unwavering support" for the court following U.S. sanctions imposed by Donald Trump. The sanctions were announced after Trump met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose arrest was sought by the ICC last year over war crimes in Gaza—charges Israel denies. The U.S. and Israel reject the ICC’s authority, with Washington arguing the court undermines national sovereignty and security. Meanwhile, European leaders and the UN have condemned the move, calling for the ICC to remain free to pursue global justice, while some nations, including South Africa and Malaysia, have formed a coalition to defend its independence.