Geopolitics Daily
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📰 China surrounds Taiwan

📰 China surrounds Taiwan

and North Korea escalates tensions

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
October 16, 2024

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Hello and welcome back.

At the forefront of today’s headlines is the bilateral exchange between Russia and China, who are working to enhance their military cooperation, while indirect talks between Tehran and Washington, facilitated by Muscat, have come to a standstill.

In Europe, the OECD has raised alarms about corruption in Hungary, and Italy's contentious migration pact with Albania is now in effect.

Additionally, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) expressed its support for UNIFIL peacekeepers in South Lebanon, following a series of attacks targeting their forces.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇰🇵 🇰🇷 North Korea destroys border roads with the South, declines to negotiate with Seoul: South Korea has condemned North Korea's destruction of border roads this week, further straining already tense relations on the peninsula. The South Korean unification ministry, responsible for inter-Korean affairs, labelled the North's move as "abnormal" and a breach of agreements aimed at reducing tensions. According to the South's joint chiefs of staff, the military responded by firing warning shots near the border after North Korea detonated parts of the Gyeongui and Donghae roads, which—though unused—symbolised efforts towards improving ties and potential reunification. Since earlier this year, North Korea has intensified military measures along the border, laying new mines, erecting anti-tank barriers, and deploying nuclear-capable missiles after leader Kim Jong-un identified South Korea as a "principal enemy." Last week, Pyongyang announced plans to permanently seal its southern border in reaction to joint U.S.-South Korea military exercises and the arrival of a U.S. nuclear submarine.

2️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇹🇼 Beijing stages military drills around Taiwan: China has conducted large-scale military and coastguard drills encircling Taiwan, which Beijing characterised as a warning against "separatist acts" following a recent speech by Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te. State media linked the exercises to Lai's National Day address, where he reaffirmed that the People’s Republic of China “has no right to represent Taiwan” while expressing a willingness to work towards peace and stability. The drills were launched without prior notice—involving all military branches—including a strike group led by the aircraft carrier Liaoning. The drills focused on combat readiness at sea and in the air, blockading key ports, and targeting maritime and land objectives. Though no live-fire or no-fly zones were declared, maps indicated nine exercise areas near major Taiwanese ports. Concurrently, Chinese coastguard patrols were announced as part of enforcing the one-China principle.

3️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇱🇧 UN Security Council affirms UNIFIL mandate in South Lebanon: The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) voiced support for UNIFIL peacekeepers in South Lebanon on Monday, following a series of attacks targeting the force. In its statement, the 15-member council called on “all parties to respect the safety and security of UNIFIL personnel and premises,” without specifically naming Israel. The UNSC emphasised that UN peacekeepers and facilities “must never be the target of an attack” and reaffirmed UNIFIL's crucial role in maintaining regional stability. The statement coincided with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's intensified rhetoric, urging UN peacekeepers to “temporarily get out of harm’s way” in response to Israel’s demand for UNIFIL to vacate positions in Lebanon. Israel has recently expanded ground operations and launched heavy bombings, leading to hundreds of casualties and displacing a quarter of Lebanon's population.

4️⃣ 🇲🇱 🇺🇦 Kyiv denies supplying drones to Malian insurgents: Ukraine has dismissed recent reports alleging that it supplied drones to Tuareg rebels in northern Mali, calling the claims unfounded and part of a disinformation campaign against Kyiv amid its conflict with Russia. In a statement on Monday, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry rejected the accusations circulated by international media and officials from Mali and Niger, both of which severed diplomatic ties with Ukraine in August. The ministry emphasised that Ukraine has no involvement in the transfer of military equipment to the Sahel region and condemned efforts to link it with arms supplied by its allies for defence against Russia. Ukraine also urged the global community to refrain from spreading what it describes as "false information" in line with Russia's "fake narratives," which aim to discredit Kyiv and justify Moscow's actions. The denials came after a report in Le Monde claimed that Tuareg rebels were receiving covert support from Ukraine.

5️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇺🇸 India, U.S. agree on $3.5bn Predator drone deal: India has finalised a deal with the US to acquire 31 Predator drones, the Defense Ministry announced on Tuesday. The agreement involves procuring the MQ-9B Sky/Sea Guardian drones, which are high-altitude, long-endurance remotely piloted aircraft systems. According to local reports, the deal is valued at under $3.5 billion and will see the drones distributed across the navy, air force, and army. The Defence Ministry also confirmed the signing of an agreement with General Atomics Global India for depot-level maintenance, repair, and overhaul services within the country. The contracts were formalised in a ceremony held in New Delhi, attended by Defence Secretary Giridhar Aramane. The addition of these drones is expected to significantly enhance India's surveillance and operational capabilities across all military branches.

Major Story

🇷🇺 🇨🇳 RUSSIA AND CHINA STRENGTHEN MILITARY TIES IN BILATERAL EXCHANGE BETWEEN DEFENCE MINISTERS

Background

Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov arrived in Beijing on Monday for discussions with Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun, who advocated for deepening military collaboration between the nations. The visit is part of the expanding Russia-China alliance, which has drawn concern in the West since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Both countries appear eager to bolster their global influence through closer strategic ties.

Strategic Collaboration Agenda

Belousov's visit included meetings with Chinese military and political leaders, with a focus on advancing bilateral military relations. A statement by China's defence ministry highlighted Dong Jun’s call for enhanced "strategic collaboration" and ongoing progress in their military partnership. Dong emphasised that the relationship, guided by Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, had reached unprecedented levels, setting a standard for global power relations.

Military Cooperation and Global Stability

Belousov echoed these sentiments, acknowledging that the "friendly relations" between the two presidents played a crucial role in reinforcing their strategic partnership. He stressed that military cooperation was essential for "maintaining global and regional stability." The visit underlines the evolving military alliance, which has seen multiple joint military exercises following their declaration of a "no limits" partnership prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Expanding Military and Economic Ventures

Russia and China have conducted various military drills, including large-scale naval exercises in the Sea of Japan last month—the largest of their kind in three decades, according to Putin. The growing military collaboration is complemented by strengthening economic and trade ties, which Putin described in August as "yielding results." The closer military alignment between Russia and China represents a significant shift in global power dynamics, raising concerns in North American and European capitals about the implications for regional and international security.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇺🇸 🇴🇲 Indirect talks between Tehran and Washington to end: Iran confirmed in June that it had engaged in indirect discussions with the United States through Oman, marking a rare diplomatic move between the two countries, which have not had formal relations since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. However, these talks have now stalled due to the heightened tensions in the region. During a press briefing in Muscat, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi indicated that there is currently no progress in these discussions. "We see no material for these discussions until the current crisis is resolved," he stated, explaining that the process has been paused "because of the specific conditions in the region." The situation has been exacerbated by ongoing conflicts involving Israel, which has been in active military engagements with the Palestinian Islamist movement in Gaza and the Hezbollah group in Lebanon—both of which receive support from Tehran.

2️⃣ 🇮🇹 🇦🇱 🇪🇺 Controversial Italy-Albania migration pact begins: The first group of migrants intercepted at sea under Italy's migration pact with Albania is on its way to the Balkan country for asylum processing. The pact, which human rights associations say is in breach of international law but which the EU has tacitly endorsed, was signed by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. The agreement redirects asylum seekers to Albania instead of allowing applications in Italy. On Monday, a navy ship carrying 16 men departed, as confirmed by the interior ministry. The group was rescued on Sunday while attempting a Mediterranean crossing from Libya. Vulnerable individuals—such as women, children, and those with health issues—were taken to Lampedusa, while the remaining men were chosen for transfer to Albania.

3️⃣ 🇭🇺 OECD to abort anti-bribery mission to Hungary: The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has cancelled a scheduled mission to Hungary, citing the government’s failure to address previous recommendations on anti-bribery measures. The meeting, planned for Tuesday and Wednesday, was called off due to the Hungarian government's inability to ensure the presence of key ministers and senior officials, according to an OECD statement. This marked the first time such a high-level visit was cancelled. The mission aimed to address Hungary's lack of progress in tackling long-standing issues, including inadequate foreign bribery risk awareness, the absence of a strategy for detecting and investigating such cases, and unclear legal standards for corporate accountability. The OECD expressed serious concerns over Hungary’s minimal enforcement of anti-bribery laws and announced plans to implement further measures to encourage the government to engage and address these shortcomings.