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📰 CIA cuts Ukraine intel

📰 CIA cuts Ukraine intel

and gold hits record highs

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
March 06, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

Türkiye dominates the headlines as it strengthens its diplomatic strategy to counter Iranian influence, while forging a new defence partnership model with Riyadh. Meanwhile, Gabon’s junta leader signals ambitions for long-term power, and Trump’s proposed military action against Mexican drug cartels raises significant legal and diplomatic concerns.

Today’s main story examines the key factors driving gold’s record-breaking surge.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 China to implement retaliatory tariffs on some U.S. agricultural exports, defence contractors: Following Donald Trump’s decision to impose a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports, Beijing retaliated by targeting U.S. agricultural exports and defense contractors. While China did not instigate this escalation, its response signals a firm stance against Washington’s economic pressure. The Chinese government announced additional tariffs of 15% on U.S. chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton, along with 10% duties on soybeans, pork, beef, seafood, and dairy products—hitting key agricultural regions that backed Trump in past elections. As China continues to reduce reliance on U.S. agriculture, Brazil has emerged as its primary food supplier, with their deepening economic ties underscored by a joint Ukraine peace roadmap unveiled in May 2024.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 CIA freezes intelligence sharing for Ukraine: The U.S. has halted intelligence sharing with Ukraine, adding further strain to Kyiv’s defensive capabilities, CIA Director John Ratcliffe confirmed. Reports on the extent of the suspension have been conflicting, with Financial Times stating that all intelligence exchanges have ceased, while Bloomberg initially claimed some information was still being shared. The decision follows U.S. President Donald Trump’s suspension of military aid after a public dispute with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. However, Trump later acknowledged receiving a letter from Zelensky expressing willingness to engage in peace talks, suggesting that Washington may reconsider its position. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz indicated that if negotiations progress, Trump could lift the freeze on both military assistance and intelligence sharing, though no concrete steps have been announced yet.

3️⃣ 🇾🇪 🇮🇷 Yemen’s shifting power dynamics threatens broader escalation: The year 2024 marked a turning point in Yemen’s regional influence, with the Houthis solidifying their role as both a disruptive force and a global player. Their control over northern Yemen allowed them to weaponize the Red Sea’s shipping lanes, targeting vessels near the Bab al-Mandab Strait since late 2023. These attacks, framed as solidarity with Palestine, aimed to pressure Israel and its allies over the Gaza war. In response, the U.S. led a coalition, launching strikes on Houthi military infrastructure, but instead of retreating, the group escalated its operations, including drone strikes on Israeli cities. By late 2024, Iran’s declining influence following Assad’s fall weakened its regional allies, including the Houthis. With diminished external support, the group may be forced to reassess its strategy, either negotiating for peace or further entrenching itself in militarism, risking another civil war in Yemen.

4️⃣ 🇦🇫 🇵🇰 Afghanistan, Pakistan security forces exchange fire at Torkham border crossing: Pakistani and Afghan forces exchanged gunfire overnight at the Torkham border crossing, which has been closed for 11 days due to a dispute over Afghanistan’s construction of a new border post. Afghanistan’s Interior Ministry reported one Afghan security officer killed and another injured, blaming Pakistan for initiating the violence. A Pakistani official, speaking anonymously, claimed Taliban forces fired first, prompting retaliatory fire from Pakistani troops. The crossing, crucial for trade and travel between Pakistan and landlocked Afghanistan, has frequently been a flashpoint for clashes between the two nations.

5️⃣ 🇹🇷 🇸🇦 Ankara and Riyadh forge new defence partnership model: Saudi Arabia is moving beyond military procurement to establish a domestic defense industry, with Turkey playing a pivotal role in this transformation. As part of its Vision 2030 initiative, Riyadh aims to localize 50% of its defense sector, and its proposed $6 billion arms deal with Turkey is a major step toward that goal. This partnership extends beyond military hardware, reflecting broader geopolitical ambitions and an effort to reshape the Kingdom’s industrial and economic landscape. Unlike traditional Western arms suppliers, Turkey offers joint production, technology transfer, and industrial cooperation—aligning with Saudi Arabia’s long-term security and economic objectives. The deepening military ties between Ankara and Riyadh mark a regional shift, suggesting a new defense partnership model that prioritizes collaboration over dependence on foreign suppliers.

Major Story

🇺🇸 GOLD PRICES REACH RECORD HIGH

Gold has reached an all-time high above $2,900 an ounce this month, marking a 12% increase since the start of the year and outperforming major stock indices. This follows a remarkable 27% rise in 2024, the sharpest increase in 14 years. The surge is driven by inflation concerns, heightened geopolitical uncertainty under Trump’s presidency, and growing central bank purchases.

The Role of Central Banks and Safe-Haven Demand

While gold supply remains stable, fluctuating demand—especially from central banks—has been a key driver. Governments seeking to reduce reliance on the USD have significantly increased gold reserves, echoing investor behavior in times of crisis. Additionally, gold’s traditional role as a hedge against inflation and currency fluctuations has strengthened amid economic uncertainty.

Uncertain Economic Outlook

Gold’s recent rally suggests broader economic anxieties, including Trump’s tariff policies and shifting global alliances. Historically, gold prices have anticipated inflation and geopolitical disruptions, making its current highs a potential warning sign for the global economy.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇹🇷 🇮🇷 Türkiye advances diplomatic strategy to counter Iran: With Türkiye emerging as a dominant force in Syria following Bashar al-Assad’s overthrow, competition with Iran is set to intensify, particularly in Iraq. Iraqi Kurdistan could become a key battleground where Ankara and Tehran test their influence. While Türkiye is likely to avoid direct involvement in Iraq’s debate over dismantling Iran-backed militias, it has intensified diplomatic efforts in Iraqi Kurdistan, facilitating rare high-level Kurdish meetings. Success in Ankara’s engagement—especially if linked to a peace process with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party—could reshape regional power balances, undermining Iran’s leverage over Kurdish factions. However, this shift risks provoking Iranian retaliation if a new equilibrium is not established. Despite uncertainties, Türkiye's recent diplomatic outreach suggests a potential recalibration of regional alliances, with the Kurdish issue at its core.

2️⃣ 🇬🇦 Gabon junta leader announces ambitions for presidential permanence: Gabon’s interim president, Brice Oligui Nguema, confirmed on Monday that he will run in the country’s April 12 presidential election, putting an end to months of speculation. Speaking at a rally in Libreville, he stated that his decision came after deep reflection, describing it as a calling to serve his country. His candidacy follows extensive consultations with various societal groups, reinforcing his commitment to national leadership. Nguema, who led the August 2023 coup that ousted President Ali Bongo, has overseen a transitional period marked by constitutional reforms, including the abolition of the prime minister’s post and the introduction of a seven-year presidential term with one re-election possibility.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇲🇽 Trump's military strategy against Mexican drug cartels poses legal and diplomatic risks: Former U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper’s revelation that Donald Trump considered missile strikes on Mexican drug labs initially seemed outlandish. However, the idea has since gained traction, with Trump’s administration now designating several cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) and ramping up aerial surveillance of cartel operations. These moves suggest Trump may be preparing for direct military action, likely drawing from counterterrorism strategies used in the Middle East. Despite its potential appeal to his political base, such action would face significant legal and diplomatic hurdles. Unilateral strikes on Mexico would almost certainly violate international law, strain U.S.-Mexico relations, and threaten critical cooperation on immigration and border security. Additionally, military operations could provoke cartel retaliation against U.S. citizens and businesses in Mexico, creating more security risks than they solve.