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📰 Colombia in Sudan conflict

📰 Colombia in Sudan conflict

and Somaliland sparks tensions

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
December 12, 2024

Hello and welcome back.

In the past 24 hours, the UN General Assembly has called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, reports have surfaced of Colombian mercenaries supporting the RSF in Sudan, and Turkey has facilitated technical discussions between Addis Ababa and Mogadishu concerning Somaliland.

Today's top story focuses on the military-led governments of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger forming the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), a NATO-inspired defence pact that poses a direct challenge to the ECOWAS-led status quo in West Africa.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇺🇸 🇨🇭 UNSC to make humanitarian concessions for sanction regimes: The United Nations Security Council has taken a significant step to support humanitarian efforts worldwide by adopting Resolution 2664, which creates a carveout for humanitarian work in all UN sanctions regimes. This resolution, co-sponsored by Switzerland and the United States, extends indefinitely to the UN 1267 ISIL and Al-Qaida sanctions regime, potentially impacting hundreds of humanitarian providers active in 30 countries where sanctioned individuals and entities operate. The measure aims to provide legal clarity and protection for humanitarian workers while maintaining the integrity of sanctions, ensuring that aid reaches those in need without benefiting sanctioned actors.

2️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇨🇴 🇦🇪 Colombian mercenaries reportedly fighting for the RSF in Sudan: Approximately 300 Colombian ex-soldiers have been recruited to fight in Sudan's ongoing civil war, primarily alongside the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Many were allegedly deceived, believing they were hired for security work in the UAE. The conflict, which began in April 2023, has caused massive displacement and a humanitarian crisis. Colombian President Gustavo Petro has called for the mercenaries' return and proposed banning such practices. This situation highlights the growing trend of private military contractors in African conflicts, often replacing UN peacekeepers. The UAE is accused of backing the RSF, though it denies involvement. The presence of these mercenaries underscores the conflict's internationalisation and raises concerns about accountability.

3️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇸🇾 Tehran looks to maintain Syria ties despite Assad’s removal: Iran's Foreign Ministry stated that Iran-Syria relations will continue despite the recent attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus. Iran's Foreign Minister called for dialogue between the Syrian government and legitimate opposition groups and criticized the Syrian army for not fulfilling its duty to counter the opposition. Iran has had initial contacts with some opposition groups to ensure the safety of its embassy and Shia shrines.

4️⃣ 🇹🇷 🇪🇹 🇸🇴 Technical discussions between Addis Ababa and Mogadishu held regarding Somaliland: Ethiopia and Somalia have agreed to engage in "technical talks" to resolve a dispute stemming from Ethiopia's deal with Somalia's breakaway region of Somaliland, following mediation efforts by Turkey. The conflict arose when Ethiopia signed an MoU with Somaliland in January, promising to recognize its independence in exchange for access to its coastline, a move Somalia views as an infringement on its sovereignty and territory. A joint declaration, reached after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met separately with Somali President Hassan Sheik Mohamud and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, outlines plans for talks beginning by February 2025 to address Somalia's territorial integrity while acknowledging the potential benefits of Ethiopia's sea access.

5️⃣ 🇹🇹 Tobago pushes for enhanced autonomy: Efforts to grant Tobago greater self-governance have suffered a setback after a bill aimed at expanding the powers of the island’s House of Assembly was blocked in Trinidad and Tobago’s parliament. Tobago, part of the twin-island state known for its oil-based economy and tourism, has long sought increased budget allocations and legislative autonomy. The bill proposed raising Tobago’s share of the national budget from 4.03% to 6.8% and eliminating central government approval for its legislation. While Prime Minister Keith Rowley and PNM leaders argued the proposals reflected Tobagonians' desires after extensive consultations, opposition members, echoing Tobago leader Farley Augustine, dismissed the amendments as insufficient. Augustine, advocating for a federal system and broader autonomy, has vowed to escalate the fight to the international stage, calling the defeat a major setback for Tobago’s aspirations.

Major Story

🇧🇫 🇲🇱 🇳🇪 THE FORMATION OF THE ALLIANCE OF SAHEL STATES

In September 2023, the military-led governments of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger established the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), a defence coalition modeled on NATO. This alliance emerged in reaction to threats of military intervention by ECOWAS—the Economic Community of West African States bloc, from which the AES founding members have disassociated—following Niger's July 2023 coup. The coup was one of several since 2020, underscoring persistent instability in a region grappling with jihadist violence. ECOWAS's punitive sanctions and demands for a return to civilian governance backfired, fuelling anti-ECOWAS sentiment and prompting AES members to announce their departure from the bloc by January 2025.

Strategic and Diplomatic Shifts

The AES seeks to consolidate sovereignty, enhance regional security cooperation, and counter external pressures, particularly those posed by ECOWAS. The alliance has cultivated closer ties with Russia, Turkey, and Iran, while distancing itself from Western nations. Russia has supported the AES militarily, including through Wagner Group operations, while AES nations have expelled French diplomats and severed key Western partnerships. Despite pledges to eventually restore civilian rule, the military regimes remain entrenched, suppressing domestic opposition.

Economic and Security Implications

The AES’s withdrawal from ECOWAS threatens to disrupt regional trade and restrict the movement of goods and people, vital for their economies. While the alliance plans to develop independent economic frameworks, such as a shared currency and central bank, reliance on ECOWAS neighbours for imports and exports raises concerns about economic fragility. On the security front, the AES aims to replace the defunct G5-Sahel initiative, though efforts to curb violence have seen limited success.

The Path Forward

As ECOWAS prepares for its December 2024 summit, it faces a critical choice: uphold democratic principles at the risk of fragmentation or seek compromise to maintain regional stability. Cooperation on trade, security, and governance will be essential to mitigate the potential fallout of this divide.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 UNGA demands ‘immediate’ Gaza ceasefire: The United Nations General Assembly has taken decisive action in response to the ongoing conflict in Gaza. With overwhelming support, the assembly passed two significant resolutions: one demanding an immediate, unconditional, and permanent ceasefire in Gaza, and another expressing support for the UN's agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA). The first resolution garnered 158 votes in favor, while the second secured 159 votes. Both resolutions call for Israel to respect UNRWA's mandate and facilitate unhindered humanitarian assistance in Gaza. These votes come after two days of impassioned speeches at the UN, where numerous speakers urged an end to the 14-month war that has resulted in devastating casualties among Palestinian civilians.