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🇭🇹🇺🇸 Concerns over US military aid package for Haiti

🇭🇹🇺🇸 Concerns over US military aid package for Haiti

and the geopolitics of the refugee crisis

Billy Robinson
June 21, 2024

Another day, another Geopolitics Daily!

Today's headlines cover developments spanning New Zealand, Japan, Canada, and Southeast Asia, alongside updates on ongoing conflicts in Myanmar, Haiti, and the Middle East.

Tensions persist on the Israel-Hizbollah front in South Lebanon and Northern Israel, marked by exchanges of threats among political figures.

Additionally, we delve into the intricate geopolitics surrounding the global refugee crisis.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇭🇹 🇺🇸 Concerns over US military aid package for Haiti: In April, U.S. President Joe Biden authorised a $60 million military aid package for a Kenyan-led security mission in Haiti. In recent weeks, numerous U.S. military planes have landed in Port-au-Prince, the first arrivals since gang activity halted commercial flights in March. These aircraft reportedly carried civilian contractors and supplies in preparation for the mission, expected to begin soon. However, there seems to be a lack of coordination among the involved parties, and the Haitian public remains largely uninformed.

2️⃣ 🇳🇿 🇯🇵 New Zealand and Japan negotiate intelligence sharing pact amidst tensions in the Indo-Pacific: Japan and New Zealand reached a preliminary agreement on an intelligence-sharing pact on Wednesday, as their leaders voiced concerns over the region's increasingly challenging security environment, including the strengthening ties between Russia and North Korea. In a joint statement, Prime Ministers Fumio Kishida and Christopher Luxon expressed apprehension over rising tensions in the South China Sea, where China's assertiveness in territorial claims has escalated. They welcomed the preliminary information security agreement to facilitate classified information sharing. Additionally, both leaders agreed to expedite discussions on a pact enabling their forces to share logistical support and supplies during joint training and operations.

3️⃣ 🇧🇭 🇵🇸 Bahrain, BRICS bloc weighs in on international law & Palestine: The expanding BRICS alliance is attracting Arab, Muslim, and Global South nations with its stance on international law, Palestine, and ending perpetual wars. In May, Bahrain's King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa requested Russian President Vladimir Putin to help organise a peace conference on Palestine, with Russia as the first non-Arab invitee. Bahrain and the Arab League acknowledge Russia's position, as defined by Putin, which supports an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital. At a summit this week, BRICS representatives reiterated their opposition to forcibly displacing Palestinians, expressed serious concern over Israel's disregard for international law, and collectively condemned violations of UN resolutions.

4️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 ‘The resistance is ready,’ says Hizbollah MP: Hizbollah-affiliated Lebanese MP and spokesperson Ibrahim Moussawi shared his views on the conflict between Israel and the Axis of Resistance in Lebanon and Gaza. "If they want to come to Lebanon, they are welcome. We are waiting for them." Regarding the potential for a larger war on the Israeli-Lebanese border, Moussawi stated that neither Hizbollah nor Israel desires an expanded conflict, but the Islamic resistance is prepared if Israel invades. The risk lies in miscalculation, which could spark sudden conflict between Israel and Hizbollah, a far larger and better equipped adversary than Hamas. However, according to the Guardian's defence and security editor, Dan Sabbagh, Israeli talk of war with Hizbollah is likely a fresh attempt at deterrence.

5️⃣ 🇨🇦 🇮🇷 Canada lists Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist group: After years of pressure from opposition lawmakers and members of the Iranian diaspora, Canada has designated the IRGC as a terrorist organisation. Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc announced the decision on Wednesday, calling it a “significant tool in fighting global terrorism.” This designation will bar thousands of senior Iranian government and IRGC officials from entering Canada. Iran's foreign ministry spokesman, quoted by Fars news agency, condemned the decision as "unwise and unconventional." The IRGC holds significant military, political, and economic influence in Iran and is closely aligned with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Major Story

🇺🇳 🇪🇺 THE GEOPOLITICS OF THE REFUGEE CRISIS

Overview

Last week, a boat carrying 260 refugees and migrants—mainly from Ethiopia and Somalia—capsized, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM). The disaster claimed the lives of at least 49 people, while 140 others remain missing. They had departed from Somalia's northern coast, undertaking a perilous 320km (200 miles) journey across the Gulf of Aden in hopes of reaching Yemen. This route has increasingly become a dangerous passage for refugees and migrants aiming to reach destinations like Saudi Arabia via Yemen.

A recent report from the UN's refugee agency reveals that over the past three years, more than 7,600 individuals have perished or gone missing while attempting to cross the Mediterranean Sea. Filippo Grandi, the UN's High Commissioner for Refugees, warns that the crisis is set to worsen.

A global trend

Last year, the UN’s refugee agency reported that the global number of forcibly displaced people reached a staggering 117 million, equivalent to the population of London. The United Nations high commissioner for refugees (UNHCR) highlighted a significant increase in displacements due to ongoing conflicts, including prolonged crises in Ukraine and Sudan.

In 2023 alone, 8.8 million people were displaced, surpassing the previous year's record amid a disturbing trend of year-on-year increases over the past decade. This figure now represents 1.5% of the world’s population, almost double the proportion from ten years ago.

European Union outsourcing immigration security

The geopolitics of the refugee crisis places vulnerable individuals at the heart of state-level negotiations. An alarming trend has emerged where EU states are outsourcing illegal immigration control to authoritarian regimes in North Africa and the Middle East, often overlooking the methods these regimes employ.

The EU recently allocated a 1 billion euro aid package to the notoriously kleptocratic Lebanese government to manage immigration, a move analysts believe will adversely impact Lebanon and its people.

Last week, EU-funded security forces in Egypt forcibly repatriated thousands of Sudanese individuals back to their conflict-affected country, Sudan.

This week, Moroccan authorities made critical decisions that led to the tragic deaths of dozens of asylum seekers attempting to cross the border fence into Spain's Melilla territory in North Africa two years ago, according to survivors and an NGO investigation.

At least 27 migrants and asylum seekers were killed during a massive attempt by around 2,000 people to scale the fence — marking the deadliest day in recent memory along the EU's African land border. Another 70 individuals remain missing and unaccounted for.

Policy rethinking needed, says NGO

Border Forensics, an NGO focusing on immigration issues, suggests that a fundamental shift in European migration policies and relations with the Global South could prevent such tragedies. They emphasise the need to dismantle not only physical barriers but also the broader network of relationships, agreements, and legislation contributing to these incidents.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇲🇲 Aung San Suu Kyi celebrates another birthday in Junta detainment, whilst civil war rages on: The Nobel laureate is serving a 27-year sentence from a junta-organised court trial—widely condemned as a sham to exclude her from politics—after the military overthrew her government in 2021, plunging Myanmar into chaos. Suu Kyi has spent nearly a quarter of her life under house arrest or in jail. Despite her enduring popularity, she has been mostly hidden from view since the coup, appearing only in state media photos from court. This comes amid significant instability in Myanmar, where the military struggles to suppress a widespread armed uprising following the junta’s crackdown on dissent in 2021. The junta has rejected numerous requests by foreign leaders and diplomats to meet with Suu Kyi.

2️⃣ 🇮🇩 🇹🇭 🇯🇵 Indonesia, Thailand, pursue OECD membership: Indonesia and Thailand have initiated steps to join the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). While "developed countries" lack a precise international definition, the term typically refers to states with high levels of income, education, social welfare, political stability, and social maturity. Thailand aims to achieve developed status by 2037 under its national strategy, while Indonesia targets 2045, marking its centennial of independence. Japan, an OECD member and key regional player, may facilitate this process by bridging ASEAN, of which Thailand and Indonesia are members, and the OECD, thereby accelerating the induction process.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 US Defence budget estimates: Biden's proposed fiscal year 2025 budget requests $850 billion in discretionary budget authority for the Department of Defense. This request marks a 4.1 percent increase, or $34 billion, from the FY 2023 enacted level. However, when accounting for inflation, which totaled about 7 percent over the past two years, this growth actually reflects a decrease. Brookings Institute analysts note that this substantial budget request, especially in an election year with competing budget priorities, is likely to draw significant attention.