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📰 DR Congo at breaking point

📰 DR Congo at breaking point

and Lebanon ceasefire falters

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
November 02, 2024

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Today's dispatch focuses on the Middle East. The special rapporteur for Palestine has called for Israel's suspension from the UN, while US diplomacy once again stumbles in its efforts to broker a ceasefire in Lebanon. The main story today explores the strategic roadmap of Hezbollah's ongoing conflict with Israel.

Meanwhile, Argentine President Javier Milei has dismissed his foreign minister following her vote to end the US embargo on Cuba. This vote came after all UN member states—except for the US and Israel—supported lifting the embargo, a move that poses a significant threat to Cuba's stability.

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Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇺🇳 Renewed violence in Eastern DR Congo, future of MONUSCO uncertain: The end of one of the deadliest, least understood conflicts—the war in eastern Congo—remains elusive, as does the departure of the large UN peacekeeping mission, MONUSCO. Congo’s mineral-rich east, vital to the global economy, is beset by dozens of armed groups—including Islamic State—affiliates, with instability displacing millions. Increasing frustration has led many Congolese to demand MONUSCO’s exit, though the international community warns of a dangerous security vacuum if it leaves. UN forces are now re-positioning to defend civilians, training Congolese soldiers to bridge the gap. Mineral wealth has worsened the crisis, with foreign interests fueling ongoing violence; Rwanda-backed rebels—the M23—are exploiting the situation, often obstructing the UN as they push for territorial control. The ongoing violence is further complicated by what the Economist’s Darren Davids describes as the international community’s reluctance to pressure Rwanda to halt the conflict, given its role as a dependable trading partner for the West amid intensifying competition for Congo’s mineral wealth.

2️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 🇺🇸 US diplomacy falters yet again in Lebanon ceasefire efforts: Beirut endured at least ten Israeli airstrikes overnight, resulting in casualties, as a new UN report accuses Israel of systematically dismantling Gaza’s healthcare system, citing deliberate attacks on medical personnel and facilities—actions deemed potential war crimes. US envoys Amos Hochstein and Brett McGurk met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel on Thursday, marking a departure from the usual practice of following such meetings with a visit to Beirut, signalling stalled diplomacy. Netanyahu emphasised that any ceasefire deal must guarantee Israel’s security, permitting it to target Hezbollah as needed. This stance, viewed in Lebanon as a one-sided surrender, has been firmly rejected by Hezbollah and the Lebanese government. Consequently, diplomacy has faltered, and strikes have resumed in southern Beirut.

3️⃣ 🇦🇷 🇨🇺 Argentina foreign minister fired over vote to end Cuba embargo: Argentine President Javier Milei has dismissed Foreign Minister Diana Mondino after she voted at the United Nations in favour of lifting the U.S. embargo on Cuba—a resolution that passed with only the U.S. and Israel voting against it. In a statement, Milei affirmed Argentina’s stance against the “Cuban dictatorship” and emphasised that the country’s foreign policy aligns with condemning regimes that infringe on human rights and freedoms. He reiterated Argentina's alignment with U.S. and Israeli positions on such matters. Known for his strong pro-American views, Milei has distanced himself from left-leaning nations like Cuba and Venezuela, in contrast to Mondino, who initially helped foster diplomatic ties with Argentina’s various international partners. She was among the first cabinet members appointed after Milei's election, reflecting an early priority for stable foreign relations.

4️⃣ 🇬🇪 🇷🇺 Georgia election recount confirms ruling party victory, says electoral commission: Georgia’s officials announced that a partial recount confirmed the ruling Georgian Dream party’s victory in a contested election, despite opposition claims and a report from research firm HarrisX calling the electoral commission’s results “statistically impossible.” The pro-Western opposition reiterated its stance that the parliamentary election was “stolen,” refusing to accept the outcome, which has stirred political uncertainty in the Caucasus nation. President Salome Zourabichvili, at odds with the ruling party, called the election illegitimate, alleging Russian interference—claims Moscow denies. On Monday, large protests filled Tbilisi’s streets, and further demonstrations are planned. The election commission reported minimal vote changes after recounting about 12% of stations, while international observers and the EU called for an investigation into irregularities. Georgia’s interior ministry, however, rejected calls for a re-election, and prosecutors have opened 47 cases related to alleged voting violations.

5️⃣ 🇮🇷 Iran to increase defence budget by over 200%: Iranian spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani announced on Tuesday that Iran plans to boost its military budget by approximately 200%, amid escalating tensions with Israel. Mohajerani did not provide further details on the budget, but the announcement follows months of missile exchanges between the two nations. Israel recently launched strikes on Iranian targets in response to an Iranian missile barrage. Iran, with one of the Middle East’s largest military forces, including 600,000 active troops and 350,000 reservists, declared it would employ “all available tools” to counter these attacks. Israel had previously vowed to retaliate after Iran’s October 1 missile strike. Iran also launched hundreds of drones and missiles against Israel in April, claiming it was in response to an Israeli strike in Damascus.

Major Story

🇱🇧 🇮🇷 🇸🇾 🇮🇶 🇾🇪 The Axis of Resistance: Strategic Priorities and Military Tactics

Background

The Iran-led "Axis of Resistance"—an alliance of political and military groups across Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq—has adapted its strategy amid Israel’s onslaught in Lebanon. Hizbollah—the central force in this coalition—has focused on rebuilding its command structure in Lebanon and Syria after Israel’s recent assassination of high-ranking figures, such as the revered Hassan Nasrallah. Political analyst Dr. Mohamed El-Doh outlines Hizbollah's three main goals.

Deterring Israeli Expansion in Lebanon

Hizbollah’s primary aim is to prevent a large-scale Israeli ground operation in southern Lebanon. Such an invasion would not only threaten Hizbollah’s influence but could also embolden Israeli attacks on Iran’s allies in Syria, Iraq, and Iran itself, as Israel did on October 26. Through coordinated guerrilla operations carried out by its Radwan Force, Hizbollah aims to establish a robust deterrent, signalling that any Israeli advances will encounter significant resistance. This intent is underscored by Hizbollah's recent report of Israeli casualties, claiming the deaths of over 90 soldiers and the destruction of 42 Merkava tanks.

Preparing for Prolonged Conflict

Beyond short-term deterrence, Hizbollah is preparing for extended hostilities. Its strategy includes maintaining readiness for prolonged, asymmetric warfare along the Lebanese border and in urban areas, maximising Israel’s losses over time through a strategy of attrition. Their strategic victory through attritional warfare following Israel’s 2006 invasion reinforces this approach, as attritional conflict is precisely what Israel seeks to avoid, according to former Israeli Defence Forces General Itzhak Brik.

Pressuring the U.S. to Withdraw from Syria

Hizbollah, in conjunction with its allies in Hashd al-Shaabi—the collective term for all Iraqi constituents of the Axis of Resistance—also seeks to expel the U.S. from Syria, who maintain a military footprint in Syria's Deir ez-Zor region because of their vested oil interests. Their mutual objective to erode U.S. influence in the region aligns with broader geopolitical interests, as Syria serves as a vital conduit for materiel and economic resources between Iran and Lebanon.

Current Combat Operations

In response to Israeli strikes on its leadership, Hizbollah has escalated its operations, employing anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) and drones to strike Israeli defences in northern Israel and Haifa. This demonstrates its capacity for high-precision, remote attacks that can bypass Israel’s Iron Dome. Continuous rocket barrages against Israeli positions reinforce Hizbollah’s indirect, long-range approach, minimising its own casualties while maximising impact. This adaptive strategy—honed through years of conflict—positions Hizbollah to engage Israel in a prolonged war of attrition.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇳 Special rapporteur for Palestine says Israel should be suspended from UN: Francesca Albanese, the UN special rapporteur on the Palestinian territories, has urged the United Nations to consider suspending Israel’s membership over what she describes as an ongoing “genocide” against Palestinians. Addressing a UN committee on the rights of the Palestinian people in New York, Albanese argued that Israel’s actions in Gaza surpass war crimes or crimes against humanity, reaching the threshold of genocide, as detailed in her recent report. “It is time to consider suspending the credentials of Israel as a UN member state,” she stated, adding, “I understand the sensitivity, as none of you have clean hands regarding human rights.” Her remarks have drawn significant attention, highlighting the ongoing debate over accountability and human rights within international bodies.