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📰 Duterte faces ICC charges

📰 Duterte faces ICC charges

and France begins Senegal withdrawal

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
March 13, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

Iraq and the Levant take centre stage today, with Iraqi Kurdistan emerging as the latest battleground in the Iran-Turkey geopolitical rivalry, while Syria’s rapprochement with the Kurds fuels both hope and scepticism. Meanwhile, Qatar raises concerns over the environmental fallout of a potential strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Our main story analyses the fragile equilibrium between diplomacy and deterrence in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇵🇭 🇳🇱 Former Philippine president faces charges of crimes against humanity at the Hague: Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte departed Manila for The Hague late Tuesday, just hours after being served an International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant over alleged crimes against humanity linked to his deadly war on drugs. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. confirmed the flight, stating Duterte would face charges related to the campaign that left up to 30,000 dead, primarily poor urban men. Duterte’s daughter, Veronica, claimed he was “kidnapped,” while supporters argue the ICC lacks jurisdiction following the Philippines' 2019 withdrawal from the Rome Statute. However, the court maintains authority over crimes committed before the withdrawal. Rights groups have urged Manila to comply with the ICC, citing Duterte’s own statements advocating extrajudicial killings during his presidency.

2️⃣ 🇸🇳 🇫🇷 France begins Senegal withdrawal: France officially started its military withdrawal from Senegal, transferring two key facilities to Senegalese authorities as part of a broader realignment of its presence in West Africa. The French Embassy confirmed that control of the Maréchal and Saint-Exupéry districts near Hann Park was handed over on March 7, after being prepared for transfer since mid-2024. This move aligns with Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye’s push to expel foreign forces, echoing similar efforts in Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad. While a joint commission was established to oversee the withdrawal, the exact number of French troops still in Senegal remains undisclosed. France plans to significantly scale back its military presence in Africa, with Djibouti expected to remain its only permanent base on the continent, though Paris may still offer military training or support upon request.

3️⃣ 🇾🇪 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Ansarullah reimplements Red Sea blockade after Israel blocks Gaza’s humanitarian aid access: Yemen’s Houthi movement has reinstated a blockade on Israeli vessels in the Red Sea, citing Israel’s continued restriction of aid and electricity to Gaza. The ban, announced after a deadline for humanitarian access expired, will remain until aid deliveries resume. Since Israel’s military campaign in Gaza began, the Houthis have targeted over 100 ships near the Bab al-Mandab Strait, sinking two, seizing one, and killing four people. Meanwhile, Israeli airstrikes in Gaza continue as the humanitarian situation worsens, with the UN warning of dwindling fuel supplies and disrupted food distribution. Talks on a ceasefire are ongoing in Qatar, while Israeli forces have escalated operations in the West Bank. In Jerusalem, settlers stormed Al-Aqsa Mosque under police protection, further heightening tensions in the region.

4️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇸 Putin–Trump detente endangers the Arctic Council, say analysts: In a March 4 speech to the U.S. Congress, Donald Trump reiterated his desire to acquire Greenland for its strategic value, emphasizing national security needs. This stance, along with increasing pressure on Ukraine to allow U.S. access to its mineral wealth, highlights Trump’s transactional approach to foreign relations, particularly regarding the Arctic. By potentially sidelining the Arctic Council and working with Russia, Trump could disrupt circumpolar cooperation, a key framework for addressing environmental issues and protecting Indigenous rights. This shift threatens the region’s multilateral agreements and raises questions about Europe’s ability to influence Arctic geopolitics. Trump's focus on resource extraction could also pave the way for a new order in the Arctic, leaving NATO and EU nations with little leverage.

5️⃣ 🇶🇦 🇮🇷 Qatari PM warns of environmental crisis that would follow attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites: Qatar's Prime Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, has warned that any attack on Iran's nuclear facilities would severely contaminate the Persian Gulf, jeopardizing the environment and livelihoods of nearby nations, including Qatar, the UAE, and Kuwait. He emphasized that such an attack would render the waters lifeless, with no fish or drinkable water, highlighting the proximity of some of Iran’s nuclear sites to these countries, particularly Qatar. These Gulf states, with limited natural freshwater resources, rely heavily on desalinated water from the Gulf, and any contamination would have dire consequences. This comes as Israel has repeatedly threatened to strike Iran’s nuclear sites, and President Donald Trump has warned Iran of military action unless talks begin.

Major Story

🇷🇺 🇺🇦 THE RUSSIA–UKRAINE CONFLICT: A DELICATE BALANCE BETWEEN DIPLOMACY AND DETERRENCE

Russian media has revelled in the discord between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy after Trump reprimanded Zelenskyy during a February Oval Office meeting. Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s deputy Security Council chairman, mocked Zelenskyy, calling him an "ungrateful pig" following the exchange.

However, the Kremlin's response has been more measured. Russian officials understand that the U.S.-Ukraine relationship remains crucial for any resolution to the conflict. While they hope Washington can weaken Ukraine's resolve and pressure it to make major concessions, they also recognize that a total breakdown in U.S.-Ukraine relations could complicate negotiations by drawing in European countries, which would likely bolster Ukraine’s resistance.

Russia’s demands for peace remain unchanged, as President Vladimir Putin’s maximalist position persists: Ukraine must forgo NATO membership, recognize Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territory, demilitarize, and lift anti-Russian sanctions. Although Putin publicly states his readiness to negotiate, he has made it clear that Russia’s territorial objectives are non-negotiable. While the United States has threatened sanctions on Russia in response to its continued offensive, these measures are unlikely to have significant impact, as Russia’s economy has proved resilient to Western sanctions. Furthermore, Trump’s idea that Ukraine’s mineral wealth could offer U.S. business guarantees is flawed. Ukraine, plagued by corruption and devastated by war, offers little in terms of attractive investment opportunities.

In terms of U.S.-Russia relations, recent diplomatic meetings suggest a potential thaw, but meaningful reconciliation remains distant. While some steps are being taken to restore communication, the geopolitical rivalry between the two nations endures. The Council on Foreign Relations writes that for U.S. diplomacy to be effective, it must balance deterrence with engagement, reinforcing Ukraine’s sovereignty while addressing Russia’s security concerns. This approach is key to a sustainable resolution to the conflict.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇸🇾 Iraqi Kurdistan the new frontier in the Iran-Turkey geopolitical rivalry: Following Turkey's perceived success in Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad in December, tensions between Ankara and Tehran could intensify, particularly in Iraq's Kurdistan region. Turkey seeks to influence Iraq's regional alignment by strengthening its ties with Iraqi Kurdish officials, while carefully avoiding the controversial issue of the Iran-aligned Popular Mobilization Units (PMU). Ankara's efforts to improve relations with Kurdish factions in both Iraq and Syria could reshape the regional balance of power, particularly if peace agreements with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) are reached. However, this shift might provoke Iranian retaliation, highlighting the delicate balance Turkey must maintain in its pursuit of greater influence in the region.

2️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇮🇶 Syria–Kurdish rapprochement sparks optimism and skepticism: A historic peace deal between Syria’s transitional government and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) has elicited cautious optimism from Iraqi Kurdish leaders but also skepticism from analysts. Signed in Damascus by interim President Ahmed Al-Sharaa and SDF Commander Mazlum Abdi, the agreement aims to unify the fractured nation, guarantee Kurdish political rights, and integrate the northeast under central government control. Iraqi Kurdish figures hailed the deal as a step toward regional stability, though Baghdad has yet to respond. However, analysts question its feasibility, citing Syria’s geopolitical struggles and the government’s potential tactical motives. Political scientist Kamaran Mantik warned that broader international rivalries could obstruct implementation, as Russia, Turkey, and Israel pursue conflicting visions for Syria’s future.