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Russia and China caution Japan over the planned US missile deployment, Haiti’s Patriotic Congress calls for governance reforms to tackle systemic corruption, and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud strikes an electoral reform deal with opposition leaders.

At the centre of today’s coverage is our lead story, Europe’s snapback gamble with Iran risks war.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇱🇰 Dissanayake faces IMF constraints as Sri Lanka struggles with debt crisis: Sri Lanka’s recovery from its 2022 financial collapse has been tethered to IMF austerity, leaving civil society to bear the cost. The bailout conditions—privatisations, subsidy cuts, frozen public hiring, and higher taxes—have deepened hardship, with food insecurity now affecting millions. Newly elected President Anura Kumara Dissanayake has reinstated agricultural and fishing subsidies, yet inflation, high fuel costs, and limited health spending persist. Servicing debt consumes five times more than public health, underscoring the imbalance. Civil society warns that the IMF’s 17th program prioritises creditors over people, mirroring a wider Global South debt crisis where half the world spends more on interest than on education or health. Grassroots movements gathering in Sri Lanka this year demand a just recovery centred on sovereignty, food security, and social investment.

2️⃣ 🇹🇭 🇰🇭 Thai Constitutional Court removes Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra over ethics violation: Thailand’s Constitutional Court has dismissed Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, ruling she violated ethics by placing personal ties with Cambodia’s Hun Sen above national interests. The decision, delivered after a leaked recording of a call in which she referred to Hun Sen as “uncle” and offered to “take care of” his requests, triggered her immediate removal. Paetongtarn apologised, calling her words a negotiating tactic, but critics accused her of undermining Thailand during a border dispute that later erupted into deadly clashes. The ruling marks the fourth time a Shinawatra has been ousted by coup or court, deepening instability within Pheu Thai. With both Paetongtarn and her predecessor Srettha Thavisin disqualified, the party faces difficulty rallying support around its remaining nominee, Chaikasem Nitisiri, while a caretaker government holds power.

3️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇺🇳 Hemedti sworn in as head of Sudan’s parallel government: Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo ‘Hemedti’, commander of Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF), was sworn in Sunday as leader of a parallel government in Nyala, South Darfur. The Sudanese Founding Alliance, a coalition dominated by the RSF, announced Abdelaziz Adam al-Hilu as Dagalo’s deputy alongside a 13-member presidential council. The coalition first declared its alternative authority in July, following a February charter signed in Kenya by the RSF and allied groups. Khartoum has rejected the move, and on August 14 the UN Security Council denounced the formation of any parallel government in RSF-held areas as a violation of Sudan’s sovereignty. The war between the Sudanese army and the RSF, ongoing since April 2023, has killed over 20,000 people and displaced 14 million, with independent research suggesting far higher casualties.

4️⃣ 🇺🇸 Trump sidelines NSC as centralised style reshapes US security decisions: When President Donald Trump ordered airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear sites in June, even seasoned US diplomats were caught off guard, receiving no advance instructions on what to tell foreign governments. The silence underscored Trump’s top-down style: he has slashed National Security Council (NSC) staff from 400 to under 150, sidelined career officials, and handed the adviser role to Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Critics argue this has gutted the policy process, leaving agencies confused and weakening oversight, while allies struggle to read US intentions. Supporters say it reduces leaks and speeds up decision-making. Yet the ad hoc approach has bred freelancing by officials and left Trump reliant on a handful of confidants, making US national security more personalised than institutional.

5️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇾🇪 Israel escalates air campaign in Yemen as Houthis deploy new weapons: The confrontation between Israel and Yemen’s Houthis has entered a more dangerous phase, with both sides introducing new tactics and weaponry. After a Houthi Palestine-2 missile carrying suspected cluster munitions was intercepted near Ben Gurion Airport on 23 August, Israel launched Operation Neve Tzedek, a sweeping two-day air assault on Sanaa. Strikes hit military sites alongside energy facilities and urban infrastructure, killing at least ten and wounding 92, including women and children. A follow-up strike on 25 August reportedly killed the Houthis’ prime minister during a leadership meeting. Israeli officials link the Houthis’ upgraded arsenal to Iranian transfers, framing the escalation as a warning to Tehran as well. With both sides vowing further action, the cycle of attacks risks undermining fragile regional truces and deepening civilian suffering.

Major Story

🇬🇧 🇫🇷 🇩🇪 🇮🇷 🇺🇳 EUROPE’S SNAPBACK GAMBLE RISKS WAR

Britain, France, and Germany have triggered the “snapback” mechanism, setting in motion the automatic restoration of all United Nations sanctions lifted under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). European leaders frame the move as a bid to salvage nuclear diplomacy with Tehran. In practice, it threatens the opposite. By reviving sanctions largely at Israel’s urging, the E3 have narrowed the space for negotiation and pushed the conflict further toward confrontation.

Four Immediate Consequences

The return of sanctions carries four major implications. First, the UN will demand that Iran end all uranium enrichment—politically impossible in Tehran, where enrichment is seen as both a sovereign right and a national sacrifice. Second, an arms embargo will be reinstated, potentially curbing Tehran’s access to defensive systems unless Russia and China defy enforcement. Third, Iran’s fragile economy will deteriorate further, inflicting harsher pain on its citizens and amplifying regional instability. Finally, the “snapback” gives Israel political cover to intensify military strikes on Iranian facilities, legitimised by European backing.

Europe’s Justification, Iran’s Suspicion

European leaders argue that coercion is the only way to bring Iran back to the table and secure compliance with International Atomic Energy Agency inspections. Yet Tehran views such demands through the lens of betrayal. Sensitive nuclear data shared with the IAEA, Iranian officials argue, has been exploited by Israeli intelligence to target scientists. Coupled with recent Israeli and US bombings conducted while diplomacy was supposedly ongoing, Iran sees little reason to trust negotiations that offer no reciprocal restraint on its adversaries.

From Preventing War to Risking One

The irony is stark. When the E3 emerged in 2003, their mission was to forestall a US-led war with Iran by offering an alternative to force. Two decades later, Europe’s calculus has changed. Iran’s alignment with Russia in the Ukraine conflict, the collapse of EU–Iran trade, and dependence on the transatlantic alliance have shifted priorities. Sanctioning Tehran now serves two purposes: punishing its partnership with Moscow and signalling loyalty to Washington and Tel Aviv. But this alignment comes at the cost of regional stability.

A Strategic Miscalculation

By triggering snapback, the E3 risks repeating the very mistakes they once sought to prevent. Coercion without a path to compromise on enrichment leaves only one trajectory: escalation. Alternatives exist—linking sanctions relief to security guarantees, embedding nuclear talks within a broader regional framework, and ensuring reciprocity on all sides. Such diplomacy requires patience and political courage. Quincy Institute’s Trita Parsi writes, in 2003, Europe resisted American pressure to wage another disastrous Middle Eastern war. In 2025, it risks becoming complicit in creating one.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇨🇳 🇯🇵 🇺🇸 Russia and China warn Japan over US missile deployment: Russia and China have condemned Japan’s decision to host US “Typhon” intermediate-range missiles during joint drills next month, warning it threatens regional stability. Moscow called the deployment a “direct strategic threat,” with Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova accusing Tokyo of accelerating militarisation and vowing “military-technical measures” if the plan proceeds. Beijing also urged Japan to “act prudently” and avoid eroding trust in Asia, stressing its opposition to any US deployment of the Typhon system. The missiles, capable of striking targets up to 480km away, will be stationed at a US Marine base in Iwakuni during the “Resolute Dragon” exercises. Washington says the move strengthens deterrence, but critics argue it risks escalating tensions in a region already strained by competing great-power rivalries.

2️⃣ 🇭🇹 Haitian congress urges governance reforms to confront systemic corruption: Haiti’s Patriotic Congress for National Rescue, led by academics and civil society, concluded a month-long consultation on June 27, producing 25 proposals—19 addressing insecurity and six targeting governance and political transitions. While insecurity dominates public debate, experts argue corruption lies at the root of Haiti’s crises, undermining investment, fueling poverty, and destabilising governance. The $2 billion PetroCaribe scandal epitomises the depth of systemic graft. Private initiatives, including small enterprises, routinely collapse under demands for kickbacks. Proposals stress the need for accountability, stronger institutions, and judicial reforms, with calls to treat large-scale embezzlement as an international crime on par with genocide. Advocates insist that without tackling entrenched corruption, efforts to curb violence or end Haiti’s cycle of political instability will fail.

3️⃣ 🇸🇴 President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud and opposition leaders sign electoral reform deal in Somalia: Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud and four opposition leaders signed an agreement on August 25, 2025, establishing the framework for the 2026 elections. The deal builds on Parliament’s 2024 electoral law introducing universal suffrage, hailed as a historic step beyond the clan-based system but still contested by parts of the opposition. Under the agreement, the president will be elected by Parliament, while lawmakers will be chosen through nationwide direct voting. Parties securing at least 10% of seats will gain official recognition, and all sides pledged to advance a “one person, one vote” system. Mohamoud called it the opening of “doors to state reconstruction,” though critics, including former president Sherif Sheikh Ahmed, warn Somalia’s fragile security conditions make sweeping reforms risky.

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Prisoners of Geography

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