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From the Gulf, Iraq drops the PMU draft law under U.S. pressure as Washington accelerates troop redeployment to Kurdistan; Oman tightens repression with new arrests and silenced dissent; and the E3 triggers UN snapback sanctions on Iran, raising the risk of confrontation over diplomacy.

Today’s lead story examines how Trump’s tariff threats have laid bare deep fault lines within BRICS, exposing divisions between members over alignment with the U.S. and cohesion within the bloc.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇬🇧 🇮🇷 E3 triggers UN snapback sanctions on Iran, risking escalation over diplomacy: Britain, France, and Germany have invoked the UN “snapback” mechanism, launching a 30-day process to reinstate all sanctions lifted under the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. The E3 insist the move preserves diplomacy, but critics warn it instead advances Israel’s push to end talks and legitimises confrontation. The sanctions will reimpose demands for Iran to halt uranium enrichment—an impossibility for Tehran—alongside restoring the arms embargo and worsening economic collapse. For ordinary Iranians, this means rising prices and shortages; for the region, heightened risks of escalation. Israel, already striking Iranian nuclear sites, may now act with broader political cover. Once created to prevent war, the E3 now appears to be edging closer to one—punishing Tehran’s alignment with Russia but sacrificing the prospect of meaningful negotiation.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇻🇪 United States expands naval deployment near Venezuela amid drug cartel crackdown: The United States is expanding its naval presence off Venezuela, with three amphibious assault ships carrying over 4,000 sailors and Marines expected to arrive next week. The deployment, which follows last week’s dispatch of Aegis destroyers, is framed as part of operations targeting Latin American drug cartels. Admiral Daryl Caudle confirmed the mission but offered few details, citing classified objectives. President Donald Trump has linked the move to his broader effort against transnational cartels, recently designating Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua and other groups as foreign terrorist organisations. In Caracas, President Nicolás Maduro dismissed U.S. accusations of drug trafficking as baseless and urged citizens to enlist in militias, while opposition leaders portrayed the buildup as a sign of his weakening rule. Analysts stress no invasion is imminent.

3️⃣ 🇲🇲 Myanmar designates Karen National Union a terrorist organisation ahead of elections: Myanmar’s military government has declared the Karen National Union (KNU) a terrorist organisation, criminalising virtually all activity or contact linked to the group. The KNU, which has fought for autonomy since 1948, has been one of the fiercest opponents of the junta since the 2021 coup, allying with pro-democracy militias and offering refuge to activists. State media accused the group of endangering public security and infrastructure, while Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing also branded it unlawful. The KNU dismissed the label, with spokesperson Padoh Saw Taw Nee calling the military the “real terrorists.” The group has vowed to disrupt December’s elections, widely denounced as illegitimate after the dissolution of Aung San Suu Kyi’s party. The designation further tightens repression as civil war engulfs much of the country.

4️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇱🇧 United Nations approves final UNIFIL extension with withdrawal set by 2027: The UN Security Council voted Thursday to extend the mandate of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) for one final year, setting a timetable for its withdrawal by 2027 under pressure from Israel and the United States. The resolution stipulates that UNIFIL’s 10,800 personnel will end operations in southern Lebanon by December 2026, with a phased drawdown coordinated with Beirut. It also calls on Israel to pull back from five northern positions across the Blue Line, and for the Lebanese army—backed by the UN—to assume control of vacated sites. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun confirmed consensus on the extension, while President Emmanuel Macron urged the Lebanese army to advance its plan to consolidate all weapons under state authority by the end of 2025.

5️⃣🇴🇲 Oman intensifies repression as activists jailed and dissent silenced: In August, Omani cleric and activist Talal al-Salmani released a video thanking supporters for his release but notably omitting Sultan Haitham, a silent protest in a state where deference to rulers is mandatory. Al-Salmani had been jailed for three months after denouncing restrictions during a Gaza solidarity protest in Muscat. His case highlights a broader crackdown: activist Salem al-Salti remains incommunicado after criticising unemployment, Manal Hamza was detained for holding a sign about joblessness, and writer Mohammed Ali al-Barami received four years in prison for a tweet on corruption. Exiled researcher Fahad al Thani’s family was forcibly returned to Oman in apparent retaliation. As austerity and unemployment deepen, dissent is criminalised, protests suppressed, and social media policed—leaving Oman’s “Switzerland of the Middle East” image increasingly at odds with reality.

Major Story

🇺🇸 🇧🇷 🇨🇳 🇮🇳 🇹🇷 TRUMP’S TARIFFS EXPOSE FAULT LINES IN BRICS

At the 17th BRICS Summit in Brazil, U.S. President Donald Trump cast a shadow by threatening a 10% tariff on “any country aligning with anti-American policies of BRICS,” alongside a 50% levy on Brazil tied to Bolsonaro’s ongoing trial. His blunt threats underscored how Washington views BRICS less as an economic forum and more as a political challenge.

Brazil’s Defiance and Dependence

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dismissed Trump’s words as “unacceptable blackmail,” pledging reciprocity while also stressing the need for dialogue. Lula’s dilemma reflects Brazil’s balancing act: resisting U.S. pressure while deepening ties with China to reduce vulnerability.

China’s Resistance

China, long the central economic driver of BRICS, labelled U.S. tariffs “economic bullying” and retaliated with WTO-permitted countermeasures. While both sides briefly paused tariffs, Beijing insists negotiations occur only on equal footing. Yet Xi Jinping’s absence from the summit—his first ever—signalled declining Chinese enthusiasm for the bloc.

India’s Ambivalence, Turkey’s Bid

India remains cautious, seeking to avoid dependency on China while cultivating its growing partnership with Washington. New Delhi reassured the U.S. that it had “no interest” in undermining the dollar, reflecting its pragmatic desire to mediate rather than escalate.

Turkey, a NATO member applying to join BRICS, illustrates the bloc’s expanding but contradictory character. Ankara leverages ties with China while keeping a foot firmly in Western alliances, using BRICS as both an economic outlet and a geopolitical bargaining chip.

A Fractured Alliance

Despite boasting economic weight that rivals the G7, BRICS remains far from cohesive. Russia, China, Iran and Ethiopia press an anti-Western line, but India, Brazil, South Africa, and the Gulf members hedge toward the U.S. The absence of Xi and Putin highlighted how internal divisions now overshadow ambition. Far from forming a united counterweight, BRICS appears increasingly a “meeting of the disunited.”

Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇶 🇺🇸 Iraq withdraws PMU draft law under US pressure as Washington redeploys troops to Kurdistan: Iraq’s government has withdrawn a draft law to expand the Popular Mobilization Units’ (PMU) powers after warnings from Washington of “severe sanctions” if it moved forward. The legislation, introduced in 2019, sought to formalize command and financial structures but was criticized for strengthening Iran-aligned factions. Its withdrawal coincided with reports that U.S. forces have begun redeploying from Ain al-Asad and Baghdad’s Victoria base to Kurdistan, a month ahead of schedule, reducing exposure to attacks by Iran-backed groups. Officials in Baghdad hailed the move as a political win, though some lawmakers questioned the timing. Analysts suggest the troop shift reflects U.S. efforts to retain influence while limiting risks, leaving unresolved disputes over the PMU’s role and Iraq’s ability to balance pressure from both Washington and Tehran.

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Prisoners of Geography

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