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📰 Eastern DR Congo ceasefire collapses

📰 Eastern DR Congo ceasefire collapses

and India-United States ties under threat

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
August 07, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

In the South Caucasus, Azerbaijan takes the diplomatic lead as Russia’s influence recedes; in Poland, Karol Nawrocki obstructs the Tusk coalition’s reform agenda amid an intensifying Warsaw power struggle. Meanwhile in East Asia, U.S. distraction enables Beijing’s dual-pronged Indo-Pacific advance.

Eighty years after Hiroshima, the global nuclear deterrence architecture is fraying, highlighting the urgent need for states to prioritise practical, preventive risk-reduction measures.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 🇺🇳 M23 and Rwanda-linked forces kill hundreds of civilians as eastern DR Congo ceasefire splinters: The UN has confirmed that at least 319 civilians were killed in late July, in North Kivu, by M23 rebels backed by Rwanda’s military. Most victims were subsistence farmers camping in their fields. UN rights chief Volker Türk condemned the surge in attacks and urged adherence to recent ceasefires signed in Washington and Doha. Despite these agreements, violence persists. Other armed groups, including the ADF, CODECO, and Raia Mutomboki/Wazalendo, continue killing civilians and perpetrating sexual violence across eastern Congo. In one July attack, 40 worshippers were massacred in Ituri. With 7.8 million people displaced and 28 million facing food insecurity, humanitarian operations are at breaking point. Health facilities, too, are overwhelmed amid soaring attacks on medical staff and infrastructure.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇳 President Trump threatens U.S.–India ties through tariffs, threats and political coercion: After two decades of bipartisan efforts to build a robust U.S.–India partnership, President Donald Trump is rapidly unravelling it. His administration has suspended trade talks, imposed steep tariffs, and threatened secondary sanctions over India’s Russian oil imports. New Delhi sees these moves as coercive interference in its foreign policy and economic sovereignty. Trump’s praise for Pakistan, criticism of Indian manufacturing, and threats tied to India’s BRICS participation have sparked backlash in Indian media and opposition ranks. The relationship, once anchored in bipartisan trust, now risks becoming a political flashpoint in both countries. With domestic politics increasingly shaping foreign policy, the strategic partnership faces serious strain. Trust—hard-won over years of diplomacy—may prove even harder to rebuild if it continues to erode under politicised pressure and transactional diplomacy.

3️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 Lebanese government debates Hizbollah disarmament amid U.S. pressure and Israeli violations: Lebanon’s cabinet convened to discuss proposals aimed at consolidating state control over all weapons, amid mounting U.S. pressure to disarm Hizbollah. The session, chaired by President Joseph Aoun and called by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, follows over a year of conflict with Israel that has significantly weakened Hizbollah militarily. Washington is reportedly urging Beirut to set a disarmament timetable without offering guarantees that Israel will uphold the November ceasefire, which it continues to violate with near-daily strikes. President Aoun declared Lebanon’s intent to transfer all arms—including Hizbollah’s—to the army, linking international aid to this goal. However, the legitimacy of such a decision remains contested, and Hezbollah has firmly rejected the US stance, demanding Israeli withdrawal, reconstruction, and prisoner releases before any discussion of disarmament.

4️⃣ 🇲🇲 🇺🇸 Trump administration signals possible softening toward Myanmar junta amid rare earth interests: Myanmar’s junta plans to hold elections in December–January, aiming to cloak its military rule in legitimacy. Following the cancellation of the nationwide state of emergency—only to reinstate martial law in rebel-held areas—free and fair elections are virtually impossible. The U.S. Trump administration has fuelled concerns by lifting sanctions on junta allies and exploring deals for Myanmar’s rare earths, potentially bypassing China’s refining dominance. Two U.S. approaches are reportedly on the table: engaging with the junta or negotiating with the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), which controls key mining areas. Yet logistical, geopolitical, and environmental challenges make either path unviable. As opposition groups vow to boycott the vote, the UN has denounced the elections as a sham. Regional analysts and Burmese civil society groups urge the international community, including Washington, to reject the junta’s manufactured legitimacy.

5️⃣ 🇲🇿 🇺🇳 Thousands displaced in Mozambique as Islamic State-linked group escalates insurgency: A surge of insurgent violence in Mozambique’s northern Cabo Delgado province forced more than 46,000 people from their homes between 20 and 28 July, the UN migration agency reported. Nearly 60% of the displaced are children, with attacks concentrated across three districts. Mozambique has battled Islamic State-linked militants in the region for eight years, with fighters accused of beheading villagers and abducting children for labour or recruitment. Rwandan troops are deployed to support local forces. The UN says over one million people have been uprooted in recent years due to conflict, cyclones, and drought. Doctors Without Borders has begun emergency aid for the newly displaced in Chiure district, the hardest hit. The unrest has also stalled major energy projects, including TotalEnergies’ $20 billion gas venture.

Major Story

🇮🇳 🇵🇰 🇷🇺 🇮🇷 🇰🇵 EIGHTY YEARS AFTER HIROSHIMA, GLOBAL NUCLEAR DETERRENCE FRAMEWORKS ERODE

Eighty years after Hiroshima, the spectre of nuclear conflict is again growing amid a landscape of overlapping crises involving nuclear-armed states. U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent disclosure of deploying nuclear submarines in response to remarks by former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev underscores how nuclear signalling remains a volatile factor in modern geopolitics. Flashpoints span from Russia-NATO tensions to flare-ups between India and Pakistan, and enduring uncertainty over Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Diminishing Deterrence and Risk of Miscalculation

While nuclear deterrence still exerts some restraining influence, evidenced by Russia’s restraint in not targeting NATO supply lines to Ukraine or India and Pakistan’s avoidance of escalation beyond conventional strikes, these boundaries are increasingly fragile. Miscommunication, cyber threats, or political misjudgements could lead adversaries to overstep red lines, intentionally or by accident, with unpredictable consequences.

Crisis management frameworks have deteriorated. Direct military-to-military contact between NATO and Russia has ceased, and diplomatic trust between India and Pakistan remains minimal. Past Cold War tools like emergency hotlines and quiet backchannels have proven effective in limiting escalation and should be revived. Expanding these to political leaders and national security advisors could stabilise future flashpoints.

Arms Control and Nonproliferation Under Pressure

The broader arms control architecture is also under stress. Russia’s withdrawal from cooperation on North Korean sanctions, and concerns over Iranian compliance with IAEA inspections, reflect weakening international enforcement. New arms races—especially in Europe and on the Korean Peninsula—are further complicating the global strategic balance.

Conclusion

States must prioritise pragmatic risk reduction: restoring high-level communication channels, reaffirming norms against nuclear use, and reinforcing the legitimacy of multilateral institutions like the IAEA. The 2022 G20 communique rejecting nuclear threats set a precedent; similar declarations should be issued ahead of the upcoming Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty review conference. Meanwhile, global South actors could play a greater role in upholding nonproliferation norms and defusing polarised debates. Preventing the use of nuclear weapons requires pre-emptive action, not crisis-time improvisation. The continued absence of nuclear conflict since Nagasaki is not a guarantee, but a political achievement that must be sustained through renewed diplomatic commitment and concrete de-escalation tools.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇦🇿 🇷🇺 Russia’s influence wanes as Azerbaijan steers South Caucasus diplomacy: Russia’s dominance in the South Caucasus is steadily eroding as Azerbaijan asserts greater autonomy and forges deeper ties with alternative powers. Following Baku’s full control of Nagorno-Karabakh, Moscow has been diplomatically and culturally sidelined—highlighted by the detention of alleged Russian agents and the closure of Russian-linked institutions. As Armenia pivots West, Azerbaijan strengthens partnerships with Türkiye, China, and the EU. The EU’s investment in the Trans-Caspian corridor and energy imports from the Caspian elevate Azerbaijan’s geostrategic value, while China’s Belt and Road and Türkiye’s military backing bolster Baku’s regional weight. The July 2025 peace talks in Dubai marked a diplomatic turning point, diminishing Moscow’s leverage. With external actors expanding influence, and traditional allies charting new courses, Russia’s managed decline in the South Caucasus appears both inevitable and accelerating.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 🇲🇾 🇻🇳 Trump administration distraction enables Beijing’s two-pronged Indo-Pacific push: While Washington fixates on tariffs and distant conflicts, Beijing has steadily consolidated influence in the Indo-Pacific through a dual strategy of coercion and charm. China has pressed territorial claims, including raising a flag on Sandy Cay and escalating military exercises around Taiwan, while simultaneously wooing “swing states” like Malaysia, Vietnam, and Indonesia with symbolic visits and economic assurances. This approach exploits U.S. preoccupation and inconsistent regional diplomacy, allowing Beijing to create a “new normal” of coercive activity without meaningful American pushback. By capitalising on U.S. tariffs and strategic distraction, China has reinforced its periphery and deepened regional ties at minimal cost—testing alliances, shaping perceptions of U.S. unreliability, and quietly expanding its leverage across the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait.

3️⃣ 🇵🇱 🇪🇺 Karol Nawrocki blocks Tusk coalition’s reform drive in Warsaw power struggle: Karol Nawrocki’s inauguration as Poland’s president marks a major setback for Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s centrist coalition. Aligned with the nationalist Law and Justice party and U.S. President Trump, Nawrocki is expected to stall judicial reforms, veto progressive legislation, and push populist tax cuts that risk deepening Poland’s deficit. His aggressive stance threatens to paralyse Tusk’s reform agenda and strain Warsaw–Brussels relations. A bitter power struggle looms, with both leaders vying for public favour ahead of 2027’s general election. While defence and support for Ukraine offer rare avenues for cooperation, Nawrocki's pledges to safeguard Poland’s “sovereignty” signal clashes over EU integration, civil liberties, and the rule of law. The standoff risks years of political drift for a key NATO member on the EU’s eastern flank at a time of heightened regional insecurity.