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📰 Egypt taps Cyprus gas

📰 Egypt taps Cyprus gas

and Patriot missiles to Ukraine

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
January 31, 2025

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In developments from the Pentagon, the U.S. has transferred 90 Patriot missiles from Israel to Ukraine, while the Taliban has refused demands to return materiel valued at $7 billion. Meanwhile, the Philippines has extended an olive branch to China, offering to dismantle U.S.-supplied missile systems if Beijing ceases its aggression in the South China Sea.

Today's top story is an in-depth analysis of M23’s capture of Goma in eastern DR Congo, examining the failures of regional diplomacy and the growing risk of a broader conflict.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇻🇪 🇨🇴 Leaked intelligence alleges Venezuelan support for Colombian rebel group, ELN: Tensions between Colombia and Venezuela escalate after reports revealed that rebels responsible for a deadly wave of violence in Colombia traveled through Venezuelan territory before launching their attack. A leaked military intelligence report indicated that at least 80 ELN fighters passed through Venezuela’s Táchira and Zulia states before attacking a rival group in Catatumbo, killing at least 80 people and displacing 40,000. Analysts suggest that Nicolás Maduro’s government may have tacitly approved or even facilitated the operation, further straining relations between Bogotá and Caracas. As the humanitarian crisis unfolds, Colombian President Gustavo Petro has severed peace talks with the ELN, deployed troops to the border, and urged Venezuela to prevent illegal crossings, while Maduro has dismissed the allegations and accused Colombia of harboring Venezuelan criminals.

2️⃣ 🇸🇾 Al-Sharaa appointed as interim president, abolishes constitution: Ahmed al-Sharaa has been named Syria’s interim president, with the country’s constitution suspended during the transitional phase, according to state media. He has also been tasked with forming a temporary legislative council until a new constitution is adopted. Hassan Abdel Ghani, spokesperson for Syria’s new military-led government, announced the dissolution of all armed factions, which will be integrated into state institutions, along with the dissolution of the former regime’s army, security agencies, and ruling Baath Party. Al-Sharaa (formerly Abu Mohamed al-Jolani), who led the offensive that ousted Bashar al-Assad, has pledged a political transition, including a national conference, an inclusive government, and eventual elections—though uniting Syria’s fragmented rebel groups under a single administration remains a major challenge.

3️⃣ 🇧🇫 🇲🇱 🇳🇪 AES bloc formally leave ECOWAS: Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have officially withdrawn from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), solidifying their break from the regional bloc. The three military-led governments, which formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) in September 2023, have instead focused on strengthening their own security and economic ties. Despite their exit, ECOWAS has urged its remaining members to continue extending trade benefits and free movement privileges to the departing nations in the spirit of regional cooperation. The alliance has since announced plans to deploy a joint force of 5,000 soldiers to combat terrorism, establish a regional investment bank, introduce a common passport, and launch a web-based television platform to counter disinformation.

4️⃣ 🇵🇭 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 Philippines offers to dismantle U.S. missile system if China halts South China Sea aggression: Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has offered to remove a U.S. missile system from the country if China ceases its “aggressive and coercive” actions in the disputed South China Sea. The U.S. deployed the Typhon missile system in April last year as part of joint military training with the Philippines, but China has repeatedly demanded its removal, accusing Manila of provoking conflict. Marcos dismissed Beijing’s objections, stating that the Philippines does not comment on China’s far more powerful missile systems and proposing a deal: if China halts territorial claims, stops harassing Filipino fishermen, and ceases hostile actions at sea, the missile system will be withdrawn. Meanwhile, the U.S. repositioned the system closer to Manila, where tensions between Chinese and Philippine forces continue to escalate.

5️⃣ 🇪🇬 🇨🇾 Egypt signs deal with energy consortium to access Cypriot gas deposit: Egypt and a consortium of energy companies, including France's Total and Italy's Eni, are set to sign a major agreement next month to transport natural gas from an undersea deposit in Cypriot waters to Egypt for liquefaction and export. Cypriot Energy Minister George Papanastasiou called the deal "highly significant" as it will finalize the technical details for moving gas from the Cronos deposit to Egyptian processing plants. The consortium, which holds licenses for seven of Cyprus' 13 offshore blocks, will decide on extraction and transportation methods before summer. The agreement, to be signed at Egypt’s energy summit from February 17-19, stands to significantly boost gas exports, including to European markets.

Major Story

🇨🇩 🇷🇼 THE FALL OF GOMA: RWANDAN REALPOLITIK AND REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS

On 27 January, the Rwandan-backed March 23 Movement (M23) rebels seized control of Goma, the capital of North Kivu province in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). This marked a significant escalation in the ongoing crisis, displacing over two million people and exposing thousands to violence from various armed groups. With Rwanda and M23 now dominating North Kivu, the conflict threatens to spill into South Kivu, endangering its capital, Bukavu. The situation risks reigniting a regional war reminiscent of the late 1990s, which claimed millions of lives.

M23’s Resurgence and Failed Diplomacy

After lying dormant since 2012, M23 reemerged in November 2021, swiftly overrunning Congolese forces and capturing strategic towns and mining sites. Backed by Rwandan troops and resources, M23 represents the latest iteration of Tutsi-dominated insurgents from the 1990s civil war. In response, Kinshasa enlisted mercenaries and regional troops, including Burundian forces, to bolster its defenses. However, poor coordination among Congolese forces and their allies has left them vulnerable. Regional and international efforts to mediate the conflict have fallen short. Kenyan President William Ruto, chair of the East African Community (EAC), has convened talks starting 29 January, involving key stakeholders such as the DRC, Rwanda, and Angola.

Rwanda’s Role and Strategic Ambitions

Rwanda initially denied involvement but has since justified its actions as protecting Congolese Tutsis and countering the FDLR, a Hutu-led rebel group. However, evidence suggests Rwanda’s goals extend beyond security, aiming for territorial expansion and control of mineral-rich areas. M23 and Rwandan forces have established de facto administrations in captured territories, sidelining local leaders. International Crisis Group writes, ‘Rwanda initially denied any role, claiming the crisis was a purely Congolese affair. But evidence has since piled up of their troops’ activities in North Kivu.’

Risks of a Wider Conflict

The collapse of mediation efforts in late 2024 paved the way for M23’s rapid advance. By January 2025, the rebels had captured key towns, including Masisi and Minova, before launching a decisive assault on Goma. Despite the presence of UN peacekeepers under the MONUSCO mandate and regional forces, Congolese troops were overwhelmed, leading to the city’s fall. The conflict risks escalating into a regional war, with Rwanda leveraging its military superiority to strengthen its negotiating position. Meanwhile, DRC President Félix Tshisekedi faces mounting political pressure as his military failures undermine his credibility. The involvement of external actors, such as Burundi and Southern African forces, adds complexity to the crisis.

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1️⃣ 🇦🇫 🇺🇸 Taliban rejects U.S. demands for return of materiel, valued at $7 billion: The Taliban has firmly rejected calls to return the military equipment left by the U.S. after its withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, emphasizing the need for the arms to combat ISIS-K, the Islamic State's Khorasan branch. Responding to President Trump’s threat to cut financial aid unless the weapons are returned, a Taliban representative reiterated that they require advanced weaponry, ammunition, and equipment for their ongoing fight. Despite this, the Taliban has expressed interest in fostering a new relationship with the U.S., seeking access to nearly $9 billion in frozen foreign reserves to aid Afghanistan's struggling economy. Although some countries have welcomed Taliban representatives, the regime remains largely unrecognized globally due to its human rights violations.

2️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 Mohammed Deif, Marwan Issa confirmed dead: Hamas confirmed on Thursday the death of its military commander—Mohammed Deif—whom Israel accused of orchestrating the October 7 attack. Abu Ubayda, spokesman for Hamas’ Al-Qassam Brigades, announced in a video statement that Deif and his deputy, Marwan Issa, were among those killed. The Israeli military had previously claimed to have eliminated Deif in a July 13, 2024, airstrike on Khan Yunis, alongside senior commander Rafa Salama. Deif, a long-time fugitive and head of Hamas’ armed wing since 2002, had been on Israel’s most-wanted list for decades and was designated an "international terrorist" by the U.S. in 2015.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🇮🇱 U.S. transfers 90 patriot missiles from Israel to Ukraine: The United States reportedly transferred around 90 Patriot air defence interceptors from Israel to Poland this week, with the intention of delivering them to Ukraine, according to Axios. When asked about the transfer, a Pentagon spokesperson declined to comment, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office confirmed a Patriot system had been returned to the U.S. but stated they were unaware of its final destination. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy mentioned speaking with Netanyahu about the Middle East, bilateral relations, and U.S. President Donald Trump but did not reference the missile transfer. The reported move underscores ongoing efforts to bolster Ukraine’s air defences amid continued conflict.