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📰 Emirati drones strike Port Sudan

📰 Emirati drones strike Port Sudan

and Labour secures Australian election win

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
May 05, 2025

Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics Daily.

Today, we track electoral shifts and continuities across Australia, Romania, and Singapore. In North America, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum rebuffs Donald Trump’s proposal for U.S. troop deployment, while Marco Rubio assumes the role of interim National Security Advisor and Mike Waltz is nominated as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations.

Our main story examines how escalating sectarian violence and Israeli airstrikes are further destabilising Syria’s fragile security landscape.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇦🇪 Emirati drones strike Port Sudan, Sudan’s de facto capital, while RSF implicated in Al-Nahud massacre: Sudan’s war now has an exhaustively regional element. On Saturday, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) struck a UAE-operated cargo plane allegedly delivering weapons to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Nyala, Darfur, while UAE-supplied RSF suicide drones simultaneously targeted a SAF base in Port Sudan, Sudan’s de facto capital and Red Sea humanitarian access point—over 1,200 km away. With both coasts and interiors now under fire, the illusion of safe zones has vanished. The trajectory points ominously toward cross-border strikes in Chad, Central African Republic, and South Sudan—igniting the spectre of full regional conflict. Meanwhile, the Sudanese government has accused the RSF of committing an ethnically targeted massacre in Al-Nahud, West Kordofan. According to the Foreign Ministry, around 300 civilians were killed in the town, which the RSF claimed to have captured on Friday. The Sudan Doctors’ Network reported over 100 confirmed deaths, including at least 21 children and 15 women.

2️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇾🇪 Israeli retaliation imminent after Houthi ballistic missile hits near Ben Gurion airport: A ballistic missile launched by Yemen’s Houthi movement struck near Israel’s Ben Gurion International Airport on Sunday, injuring eight and halting air traffic. The Israeli military admitted that both U.S.-supplied THAAD and Israel’s Arrow systems failed to intercept the projectile. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to retaliate against both the Houthis and Iran, which he blamed for orchestrating the attack. Iran’s Defence Minister warned of wide-ranging reprisals if Israel or the U.S. strikes, while the Houthis declared Ben Gurion “unsafe,” prompting major airlines to cancel flights and raising fears of broader regional escalation.

3️⃣ 🇲🇹 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 Drone hits Gaza aid flotilla in European waters, Israeli involvement suspected: A humanitarian ship en route to Gaza was struck by drones in international waters near Malta, triggering a distress call and drawing allegations of Israeli responsibility. The Freedom Flotilla Coalition, which organised the voyage, said the vessel was heavily damaged, set ablaze, and cut off from communication. Among those preparing to board were retired U.S. Army Colonel Ann Wright and activist Greta Thunberg, who condemned the strike and criticised global inaction. With delegates from over 20 nations, the flotilla sought to defy Israel’s blockade and draw attention to Gaza’s deepening humanitarian catastrophe, where more than 50,000 have been killed and famine conditions are accelerating.

4️⃣ 🇦🇺 Dutton ousted as Labour secures commanding win in Australian elections: Mirroring Canada’s political upheaval earlier in the week, Australia’s opposition has collapsed, with Liberal leader Peter Dutton losing his seat in Queensland—a striking parallel to Pierre Poilievre’s loss in Canada. Despite expectations of a tight race, Labour expanded its majority, as voters rejected the Coalition’s weak campaign, vague policies, and Dutton’s perceived alignment with Trump-style politics. Strategic missteps—including delays in policy announcements, a muddled energy platform, and poor economic messaging—only deepened public scepticism. Prime Minister Albanese’s disciplined performance, bolstered by timely rate cuts and targeted cost-of-living relief, secured a decisive mandate, while the Liberals now face a daunting rebuild amid factional uncertainty and fading suburban support.

5️⃣ 🇷🇴 🇪🇺 Far-right candidate George Simion leads first round of Romania's presidential race: George Simion, leader of the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians, is projected to win the first round of Romania’s presidential election with about 40 percent of the vote, according to partial official results. Establishment-backed Crin Antonescu and centrist mayor Nicușor Dan remain in a close contest for second place, with diaspora ballots still being counted ahead of the May 18 runoff. Simion, who aligns himself with Donald Trump’s MAGA movement and opposes EU and Ukraine policies, also performed strongly among overseas voters. The outcome is being closely monitored by Brussels and Washington, as Romania’s political direction could significantly shift in the face of rising nationalist sentiment.

Major Story

🇸🇾 🇮🇱 SECTARIAN CLASHES AND ISRAELI STRIKES UNDERMINE SYRIA’S POST-ASSAD STABILITY

Tensions flared in southern Damascus this week as violent clashes broke out between Sunni armed groups and Druze factions, underscoring growing sectarian volatility in post-Assad Syria. The unrest was triggered on 28 April by a widely circulated voice note—allegedly from a Druze leader—containing insults toward the Prophet Mohammad. The recording ignited mass protests, an online wave of anti-Druze incitement, and a mortar attack on Jaramana, a majority-Druze suburb jointly held by a Druze militia and Syria’s General Security force. The resulting clashes left at least 13 dead, including six Druze fighters.

Despite the establishment of a buffer zone around Jaramana, the violence soon spilled into nearby Ashrafieh Sahnaya, where further fighting broke out on 29 April. As combat intensified, Israeli drones struck Syrian government positions, claiming the attacks were a “warning” in defence of Druze communities. By 30 April, ceasefire talks between Druze leaders and the government had begun to calm the situation, but Israeli airstrikes resumed on 2 May, reportedly hitting areas near the presidential palace. The week’s death toll is estimated at over 100.

State Fragility and Sectarian Fallout

The fighting exposes the Syrian government's limited ability to manage its fragmented security landscape. Despite joint Druze–state coordination in Jaramana, the swift failure to prevent renewed violence in Ashrafieh Sahnaya revealed both personnel shortages and poor inter-factional discipline. The clashes also dealt a blow to minority trust in Damascus, which had already eroded after pro-government forces massacred hundreds of Alawite civilians in March.

Geopolitical Implications

Israel’s direct intervention—coupled with its declared willingness to defend Druze communities—may recalibrate regional alliances. Druze factions that once rejected Israeli assistance could now view Tel Aviv as a protector. This shift risks deepening Sunni-Druze animosities while further complicating Syria’s prospects for reconstruction. Meanwhile, the unrest undermines any case Damascus might make for sanctions relief, as instability continues to overshadow economic recovery.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇸🇬 Wong secures strong mandate as PAP wins Singapore election: Singapore’s ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) has secured a decisive majority in national elections, handing Prime Minister Lawrence Wong a clear mandate in his first major electoral test. The PAP won over 49 of 97 seats, forming government despite facing a rejuvenated opposition, rising cost-of-living concerns, and recent scandals involving senior figures. Wong, who succeeded Lee Hsien Loong last year, campaigned on economic resilience amid U.S. tariff threats and pledged continued support for Singaporeans. The opposition Workers’ Party retained its 10 seats, attracting younger voters but falling short of broader gains.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇺🇳 Rubio appointed as interim National Security Advisor, Waltz tipped for UN Ambassador role: President Donald Trump has removed Mike Waltz as national security adviser and appointed Secretary of State Marco Rubio as interim replacement. Waltz, under fire for his role in the “Signalgate” scandal and hawkish Iran stance, is nominated as the next U.S. ambassador to the UN. The shift follows reports of unauthorized communications with Israeli leaders and growing MAGA criticism over Waltz’s loyalty. Rubio, now holding dual foreign policy roles, becomes the first secretary of state to serve concurrently as NSA since the 1970s, consolidating Trump’s foreign policy leadership amid widening White House reshuffles.

3️⃣ 🇲🇽 🇺🇸 Sheinbaum rejects Trump's proposal for U.S. military deployment in Mexico: Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum revealed that U.S. President Donald Trump proposed sending American troops into Mexico to combat drug cartels—an offer she firmly rejected, citing national sovereignty. Speaking in eastern Mexico, Sheinbaum recounted telling Trump, “No, President Trump… sovereignty is not for sale.” Her comments followed a Wall Street Journal report on a tense phone call in which Trump pressured her to accept an expanded U.S. military role. While the White House affirmed its commitment to border security and countering “foreign terrorist organizations,” Sheinbaum warned that any unilateral military involvement would jeopardise bilateral cooperation, insisting that collaboration must respect territorial boundaries.