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📰 Erdogan calls Putin

📰 Erdogan calls Putin

and Egypt's political shift

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
November 25, 2024

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Today's dispatch brings updates from West Africa, where Senegal’s president secures a legislative majority and seeks to redefine ties with France, while tensions escalate between Côte d’Ivoire and Burkina Faso. In the Middle East, Israeli strikes devastate a central Beirut suburb as the European Commission urges a ceasefire in Lebanon. Meanwhile, Turkey’s president engages in bilateral talks with Putin.

Our main story delves into the role of artificial intelligence in modern warfare, examining its paradoxical effects on military strategy and outcomes.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇨🇭 🇫🇷 🇩🇪 🇬🇧 Iran holds nuclear talks in Geneva with France, Germany, UK: Iran announced it will hold nuclear talks with officials from France, Germany, and the United Kingdom this week, amid heightened tensions over its nuclear programme. Scheduled for Friday, the meeting was confirmed by Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and UK officials, though the location remains undisclosed. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei stated that discussions will cover regional and international issues, including Palestine, Lebanon, and the nuclear dispute. This follows a resolution adopted by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) last Thursday, censuring Iran for insufficient cooperation. The resolution, supported by 19 of the IAEA’s 35 members, faced opposition from Russia, China, and Burkina Faso, with 12 abstentions. Iran’s announcement of advanced centrifuges to expand uranium enrichment has added to concerns, though Tehran reiterated its willingness to collaborate with the IAEA.

2️⃣ 🇪🇬 Egypt’s president to pardon hundreds of imprisoned Muslim Brotherhood members, signalling drastic political shift: Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has shocked Egypt by removing 716 individuals—predominantly Islamists—from the country’s terror list in what appears to be the first phase of a larger political shift. This move signals a potential pact between Egypt's power structures and the Muslim Brotherhood, suggesting a broader political reorganization. Similar to the political opening under President Hosni Mubarak following Anwar Sadat's assassination in 1981, opposition groups and Islamists may be released from prisons incrementally. Notably, an overlooked power shift has also occurred within Egypt’s leadership. The replacement of Abbas Kamel by younger intelligence elites, including GIS Director Hassan Rashad, suggests the "deep state" is reasserting influence. These developments mark the potential end of Egypt’s post-2013 status quo, ushering in significant internal changes with uncertain outcomes.

3️⃣ 🇸🇳 🇫🇷 Senegal’s president wins legislative majority, aims to redefine relationship with France: Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye’s party is set to secure a dominant legislative majority following Sunday’s elections. This marks a transformative year for Faye and his Prime Minister, Ousmane Sonko, who began 2024 as imprisoned opposition leaders but will end it wielding a decisive mandate to implement their anti-establishment agenda. Their rise reflects widespread discontent with former President Macky Sall’s rule, which saw significant democratic backsliding, including repression of protests and charges against political rivals. Faye and Sonko’s popularity also stems from their promises to redistribute wealth, renegotiate resource contracts, and redefine Senegal’s relationship with France. However, economic challenges loom large. Senegal faces a budget deficit, high debt, and stalled IMF negotiations, complicating their ability to deliver on ambitious reforms. While Faye’s mandate is clear, fulfilling voters’ high expectations will be a formidable task.

4️⃣ 🇲🇽 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 🇨🇦 Mexico to reduce Chinese imports, aiming to protect U.S.–Canada trade pact: Mexico faces criticism for allegedly facilitating the entry of Chinese parts and products into North America, sparking fears that a re-elected Donald Trump or a politically vulnerable Justin Trudeau could push to exclude Mexico from the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement. In response, President Claudia Sheinbaum announced efforts to replace Chinese imports with locally produced components. "We have a plan to substitute these imports with Mexican or primarily North American production," she said, emphasising initiatives launched during the 2021 global supply chain crisis. However, like the U.S., Mexico struggles to shift critical manufacturing, such as chip production, despite its advantages under the trade pact.

5️⃣ 🇨🇮 🇧🇫 Cote D’Ivoire and Burkina Faso tensions rise: In October, Burkina Faso escalated diplomatic tensions with Côte d’Ivoire by recalling most of its diplomatic staff amid a backdrop of strained relations. Over the past year, disputes along their shared border have led to mutual detentions of security forces. Burkina Faso’s President Ibrahim Traoré has accused Côte d’Ivoire’s President Alassane Ouattara of harbouring dissidents plotting to overthrow his government, fueling animosity between the two leaders. Meanwhile, Traoré has reportedly supported efforts to destabilise Ouattara’s administration, including hosting armed dissidents linked to Ouattara’s political rival, Guillaume Soro. Adding to the friction are disinformation campaigns targeting Ouattara, likely linked to Russian interests aiming to weaken his pro-Western stance. With a presidential election looming in 2025, mounting unrest and external interference could undermine Côte d’Ivoire’s stability.

Major Story

THE RISKS OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE: THE ILLUSION OF TECHNOLOGICAL PROWESS IN INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

AI is poised to transform human society, particularly in the realm of international security. A critical concern is the potential for AI to heighten the risk of war by fostering illusions of rapid and decisive victory. Historically, overconfidence in technological advantages has often led aggressors to initiate conflicts under false assumptions of easy success.

Brookings Institute’s Michael E. O’Hanlon cites World War I: Germany’s reliance on its advanced railroads and industrial capabilities inspired the Schlieffen Plan, designed for a swift victory against France and Russia. This overconfidence proved disastrous, culminating in a protracted conflict and over 10 million fatalities. Similarly, during World War II, Adolf Hitler underestimated the Soviet Union’s resilience after early success with blitzkrieg tactics, leading to severe miscalculations.

Other conflicts, including the Vietnam War, the U.S. invasion of Iraq, and Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, reveal a recurring pattern: technological superiority does not guarantee quick or easy victories. Misjudgments about the efficacy of airpower, precision strikes, and asymmetric strategies have repeatedly turned planned "short wars" into protracted struggles.

O’Hanlon suggests that AI could exacerbate these risks. Its ability to accelerate decision-making and disrupt command-and-control systems might tempt nations to strike preemptively, believing they hold a temporary technological edge. However, war remains unpredictable and resistant to overreliance on any single innovation. History demonstrates that initial advantages often dissolve into prolonged and costly conflicts.

Leaders must heed Sun Tzu’s wisdom that the best victory is one achieved without fighting. Overestimating AI's potential to deliver quick triumphs could lead to devastating consequences, making it imperative to approach its military integration with caution and humility.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇹🇷 🇷🇺 Erdogan and Putin hold talks: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday, reaffirming Türkiye's commitment to supporting peace initiatives, according to the Communications Directorate. The two leaders discussed bilateral relations, regional tensions, and global developments during their conversation. Erdogan emphasised Türkiye's ongoing efforts to reduce tensions in the region, highlighting the country’s role in fostering stability. He also expressed a shared ambition to deepen cooperation across multiple areas, particularly by boosting bilateral trade.

2️⃣ 🇮🇱🇱🇧 🇪🇺 Israel strikes devastate central Beirut suburb, European Commission calls for Lebanon ceasefire: During a visit to Beirut on Sunday, November 24, Josep Borrell, the EU's top diplomat, called for an "immediate ceasefire" between Israel and Hizbollah, marking the conclusion of his Middle East tour ahead of his December departure. Following discussions with Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, and parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri—an ally of Hizbollah—Borrell emphasized the need for a truce and full implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701. Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Hizbollah war, requires the withdrawal of Hizbollah and Israeli forces from southern Lebanon, leaving the area under the Lebanese army and the UN Interim Force for Lebanon (UNIFIL). Borrell also endorsed the U.S.-backed 13-point ceasefire proposal, including a 60-day truce, and pledged the EU’s continued support for bolstering Lebanon’s army for southern deployment.