Hello and welcome back. 

In Europe, the EU confronts its most severe accountability crisis in decades, while in Africa the UK withdraws backing for Mozambique’s flagship gas project and tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea reach fever pitch.

In Asia, China and Japan exchange recriminations as militancy destabilises the Bangladesh–Myanmar frontier.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 🇺🇸 No compromise found in Moscow talks: Talks in Moscow between Vladimir Putin and US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner ended without agreement, with the Kremlin insisting no compromise was reached on control of Ukrainian territory. President Zelenskyy warned that sustaining Western resolve remains essential as Russia accelerates its advances and pushes for territorial concessions Ukraine considers tantamount to surrender.

2️⃣ 🇪🇺 EU braces for its most serious accountability crisis in decades: Ursula von der Leyen faces the gravest institutional test of her presidency after EU prosecutors detained former foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini and senior diplomat Stefano Sannino in a widening fraud investigation linked to a 2021–22 procurement process. Officials warn that if the allegations are confirmed, the reputational damage could rival the Santer Commission’s 1999 collapse and further erode public trust in the bloc’s governance.

3️⃣ 🇹🇷 PKK demands Ocalan release before further peace steps: Senior PKK commanders say the group will not take additional steps in the peace process until Turkey advances negotiations, frees Abdullah Ocalan, and formally recognises Kurdish rights in its constitution. Speaking from Qandil, leaders reiterated that while the PKK has renounced armed struggle and withdrawn fighters, genuine progress now depends on Ankara, as Ocalan cannot lead meaningful dialogue from solitary confinement.

4️⃣ 🇲🇲 🇧🇩 Rohingya militancy destabilises Bangladesh–Myanmar border: A fragile truce between Rohingya armed groups and the Arakan Army is fraying, with renewed attacks threatening to escalate into an organised insurgency aimed at seizing territory in Myanmar’s Rakhine State. Such violence risks triggering fresh refugee flows into Bangladesh amid collapsing aid, heightening reprisals against Rohingya civilians trapped in conflict zones.

5️⃣ 🇭🇳 🇺🇸 Trump pardons Hernández amid razor-thin Honduran vote: Donald Trump has pardoned former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández, convicted in the US of running a “cocaine superhighway,” even as Washington pressures Hondurans to back Trump’s preferred candidate in an election separated by just 515 votes. Critics say the pardon deepens perceptions of US interference and heightens fears of a repeat of the 2017 electoral crisis, when Hernández controversially retained power after a blackout-marred vote count.

Major Story

🇪🇹 🇪🇷 ETHIOPIA, ERITREA TENSIONS REACH FEVER PITCH

Over the past year, relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have sharply deteriorated, reigniting fears of a renewed conflict in the Horn of Africa. Despite a brief rapprochement in 2018 and a subsequent wartime alignment against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the post-Tigray War environment has fractured again. Three years after the Pretoria Agreement halted the fighting, political marginalisation, unresolved territorial disputes, and factionalism inside Tigray have strained ties between Mekelle and Addis Ababa.

Amid this instability, reports suggest an informal tactical understanding, known as Tsimdo, may be emerging between Eritrea and the TPLF, who have been adversaries for almost three decades. While neither side appears eager for a full-scale confrontation, opportunistic manoeuvring by all parties risks miscalculation, and localised clashes along the Afar and Tigray borders are fuelling fear among a war-weary population.

Ethiopia’s renewed push for Red Sea access

Tensions are also driven by Ethiopia’s revived pursuit of sea access, particularly to Eritrea’s port of Assab. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has framed Ethiopia’s landlocked status as an existential constraint and suggested that regaining maritime access—civilian and military—is both natural and inevitable. Eritrea has rejected these claims outright, seeing them as a threat to its sovereignty and a destabilising revision of historic borders. Regional actors, from Egypt to Djibouti, are watching closely, wary of the implications of an Ethiopian naval presence.

The collapse of Ethiopia’s proposed 2024 deal with Somaliland has pushed Addis Ababa to refocus on Eritrea, escalating rhetoric over Assab and heightening the risk of confrontation. Yet alternatives exist: enhanced access through Djibouti or a carefully negotiated commercial arrangement with Somaliland that avoids sovereignty disputes with Somalia.

Preventing dangerous escalation

Neither Ethiopia, Eritrea nor the TPLF appears to want another devastating war, but the current posture of brinkmanship risks triggering one. 

With heated rhetoric rising, preventive diplomacy is essential. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the UAE, the US and other international partners have incentives to prevent another Horn of Africa war and should, as recommended by Chatham House, prioritise de-escalation, mediation, and pathways for Ethiopia to diversify port access without coercion. Stabilising Tigray, resolving occupied Western Tigray’s status, and supporting inclusive political dialogue remain critical to reducing tensions.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇿🇦 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 South African nationals charged over recruitment for Russia’s war: Five South Africans have appeared in court on charges of recruiting and facilitating travel for citizens to join Russia’s war in Ukraine. The case has since widened to include allegations involving former President Jacob Zuma’s daughters, who accuse one another of misleading young men into believing they were signing up for bodyguard training rather than military service.

2️⃣ 🇬🇧 🇲🇿 UK ends funding for Mozambique gas project: The UK has withdrawn its $1.1bn support for TotalEnergies’ massive Mozambique gas project, citing heightened jihadist threats and concluding the investment no longer serves British interests. The move deepens the crisis facing the $20bn venture, already stalled since 2021, and adds pressure on remaining backers as TotalEnergies battles lawsuits over environmental harm and human-rights abuses.

3️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇯🇵 China and Japan trade accusations over Diaoyu–Senkaku maritime confrontation: Chinese and Japanese coastguard vessels confronted one another near the strategic, disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands, with each side claiming it had expelled the other while defending its territorial rights. Beijing accused a Japanese fishing vessel of trespassing, while Tokyo said Chinese ships had approached and were driven off, amid rising tensions linked to Japan’s recent comments on Taiwan. 

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