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📰 Ethiopia vs. Egypt heats up

📰 Ethiopia vs. Egypt heats up

and UN moves on Lebanon-Israel tensions

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
August 29, 2024

Welcome back,

Today's key developments include Israel's largest operation in the West Bank since the 2002 peak of the Second Intifada, the UN Security Council's extension of UNIFIL’s mandate along the Lebanon-Israel border, and the drafting of a peacebuilding resolution on Myanmar.

Elsewhere, Canada has matched the US in imposing stringent trade tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, and Ukraine's energy sector is reeling from a severe round of Russian attacks.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇪🇹 🇸🇴 🇪🇬 Ethiopia’s MFA issues concern over deployment of Egyptian troops in Somalia: The Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a press statement regarding the deployment of Egyptian troops, which are reportedly set to replace the outgoing, predominantly Ethiopian, African Union Transition Mission in Somalia. The statement noted that while the AU and UN are preparing for this transition, the region is entering "uncharted waters." It expressed concern over what Ethiopia sees as provocations, stating that the country is expected to ignore hostile actions that undermine the sacrifices of its defence forces. Ethiopia further emphasised that it "cannot stand idle while other actors [referring to Egypt and Somalia] take measures to destabilise the region." Analysts interpret Egypt's troop deployment as a strong response to perceived threats from Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project and a move to support Somalia’s efforts to counter the January 2024 Memorandum of Understanding between Addis Ababa and Hargeisa, which seeks to trade international recognition of Somaliland for Ethiopian access to a seaport.

2️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 UNIFIL’s Lebanon-Israel mandate extended: The United Nations Security Council unanimously passed resolution 2749 (2024) today, extending the mission's mandate until August 31, 2025. Amid escalating daily exchanges of fire along the Blue Line, the Council called for immediate de-escalation measures and reaffirmed the need for full implementation of resolution 1701. The resolution also condemned recent attacks on UNIFIL forces and premises, which have resulted in injuries to peacekeepers. The Council urged all parties to ensure the safety of UNIFIL personnel and facilities and to allow the mission to fulfil its duties as outlined in resolution 1701.

3️⃣ 🇨🇦 🇨🇳 Canada imposes 100% EV tariffs, 25% steel and aluminium tariffs on China: Ottawa’s newly announced tariffs mirror similar measures imposed by the United States, as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stated that these actions are a response to China's state-driven policy of overproduction. Trudeau did not clarify if the tariffs would extend to Tesla, which saw its shares drop over 3% following the announcement. "We all know China isn’t playing by the same rules," Trudeau said, adding that the tariffs, set to take effect on October 1, are part of a coordinated effort with other global economies. He made these remarks during a closed-door cabinet meeting in Halifax, Nova Scotia. The Chinese embassy in Ottawa did not provide an immediate response.

4️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇲🇲 UN drafts Myanmar resolution, urging peace efforts: London has circulated a comprehensive United Nations resolution on Myanmar, calling for renewed peace efforts and condemning the military's attacks on civilians. The draft resolution, obtained by The Associated Press, highlights the escalating violence amid the ongoing civil war between the military regime and resistance forces. The resolution urges an immediate halt to illicit arms transfers and demands "safe, rapid, and unhindered humanitarian access at scale," expressing deep concern over the worsening humanitarian crisis, which has led to increased food insecurity and hunger. It also warns that the current situation could further fuel discrimination, ethnically motivated violence, human rights abuses, and conflict-related sexual violence.

5️⃣ 🇭🇹 Haitian armed forces recruiting youth, amidst gang violence and job scarcity: The announcement from Haiti's military seeking new recruits crackled over a small radio in downtown Port-au-Prince, catching the attention of 21-year-old Maurenceley Clerge as he repaired and sold smartphones from his street stall. Eager to escape poverty, Clerge saw this as a chance to earn a steady income and secure a better future. Two weeks later, after completing the necessary paperwork, he joined hundreds of other Haitians, standing in line under the scorching sun for the opportunity to enlist. Amidst rampant gang violence, thousands of young Haitians are seizing the opportunity to join the military, despite the risks of kidnapping, torture, or death. In a country where jobs are scarce, the government's call to rebuild the military—a force reinstated only a few years ago to combat gangs—is being met with enthusiasm by a generation desperate for work and stability.

Major Story

🇮🇱🇵🇸 ISRAEL LAUNCHES LARGEST WEST BANK OFFENSIVE SINCE 2002

Background

At least 10 Palestinians have been killed in an extensive Israeli military operation across the northern occupied West Bank, particularly targeting the governorates of Tulkarem, Jenin, and Tubas.

Israeli assaults in the West Bank, which have been nearly daily since 2022, began before the current far-right government. These operations target Palestinian cities, refugee camps, and villages, causing hundreds of Palestinian deaths. Since 2022, about 1,000 Palestinians have been killed due to Israeli military raids and settler violence.

These actions reflect Israel’s policy of using force to manage the West Bank, occupied since 1967, rather than pursuing a Palestinian state. The aim is to prevent Palestinian resistance groups from gaining significant power. Unlike Gaza, armed groups in the West Bank are less equipped, partly due to Israeli security cooperation with the Palestinian Authority (PA), which has diminished its popularity among Palestinians.

Illegal Israeli settlers frequently harass and attack Palestinians, especially in rural areas, sometimes driving them off their land. The intensity and frequency of both military and settler attacks have increased since October 7, aligning with the escalation of Israel’s conflict with Gaza.

Judea and Samaria

Israeli media, citing military sources, expect the West Bank assault to last several days, likely increasing the death toll given the dense civilian population in the targeted areas.

Israel has described this operation as the largest in the West Bank since 2002, during the second Intifada, which drew international criticism for its heavy-handed approach to mostly non-violent protests and stone-throwing. By 2005, the conflict had resulted in 4,793 Palestinian deaths and around 1,000 Israeli casualties.

Israeli soldiers are permanently stationed across the West Bank, where illegal Israeli settlements and roads reserved for Israelis further fragment the territory, diminishing the likelihood of a Palestinian state. The International Court of Justice recently deemed Israel’s continued presence in the West Bank and East Jerusalem as “unlawful.”

Despite security justifications, Prime Minister Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders have rejected a two-state solution, promoted settlement expansion, and underscored the significance of the territory, referred to as "Judea and Samaria," to Israel.

The perceived ‘Iranian Threat’

Israeli political analyst Ori Goldberg suggests that the operation is officially attributed to the perceived threat from Iran, which is accused of supplying arms and support to armed groups in the West Bank. However, Goldberg argues that the underlying motivations vary: for Finance Minister Smotrich, it may be about pushing for annexation; for military leaders, it's about salvaging credibility after setbacks in Gaza and Lebanon. But for Prime Minister Netanyahu and many Jewish Israelis, Goldberg believes the operation reflects a broader sense of denial and desperation, redirecting focus to the West Bank as a necessary response to internal pressures.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Russia targets Ukraine’s energy sector: Ukrainian authorities are assessing the damage from one of the largest Russian airstrikes of the war, which struck energy infrastructure nationwide earlier this week. This latest attack exacerbates ongoing damage to the sector, which had already been targeted multiple times in the spring. As Ukraine grapples with a prolonged hot summer, the impact of these strikes raises concerns about the approaching winter. "This winter is going to be tough, that’s for sure," said Nataliia Shapoval, head of the Kyiv School of Economics Institute. The Monday assault, which occurred during the morning rush hour, involved over 100 missiles and drones hitting energy facilities from the eastern frontlines to the far west near the EU border.