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📰 Ethiopian rebels push forward

📰 Ethiopian rebels push forward

and U.S. war plans leaked

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
March 25, 2025

Hello,

Today, headlines from Africa dominate: A peace watchdog demands accountability following clashes in South Sudan’s Upper Nile state, while at least six were killed in an al-Shabaab attack in Kenya. In Ethiopia, fierce fighting takes place between government forces and Eritrea-backed Fano militia.

Our top story turns to the Democratic Republic of Congo, where fragile ceasefires and transactional geopolitics are redrawing the regional landscape.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇾🇪 U.S. military plans accidentally leaked to journalist: A major national security breach is under investigation after senior Trump administration officials, including the Vice President and Defense Secretary, mistakenly shared classified Yemen war plans in a Signal group chat that included a journalist. Atlantic editor Jeffrey Goldberg revealed he received details of the U.S. airstrikes—complete with target locations, timing, and weapon specifics—two hours before the attacks began on March 15. Goldberg, initially in disbelief, confirmed the messages were genuine after the National Security Council acknowledged the error and launched an inquiry. Senator Jack Reed condemned the incident as “one of the most egregious failures of operational security,” demanding accountability and immediate answers from the administration.

2️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 UN to reduce staff in Gaza after staff killed by Israeli airstrikes: The United Nations announced it would scale back its operations in Gaza after an Israeli tank strike hit one of its compounds on March 19, killing a staffer and injuring five others. About a third of the 100 international UN personnel will be temporarily withdrawn, though around 13,000 national staff will remain, primarily through UNRWA. UN spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric said evidence indicates the strike was carried out by Israeli forces, coinciding with Israel’s renewed assault on Gaza and its complete blockade of food and medical supplies. Amid continued airstrikes that have killed over 60 Palestinians in the past 24 hours, aid operations face mounting security threats and widespread disruption.

3️⃣ 🇦🇪 🇪🇬 🇺🇸 🇵🇸 UAE lobbies against Egypt’s Gaza reconstruction plan: The United Arab Emirates is reportedly undermining Egypt’s Arab League-backed plan for post-war Gaza, highlighting a growing rift between Abu Dhabi and Cairo. Egypt’s proposal, unveiled in early March, outlines a post-conflict framework including Palestinian Authority governance, a Gaza security force trained by Egypt and Jordan, and potential UN peacekeeper deployment in Gaza and the West Bank. While many Arab and European states endorsed the plan, the US and Israel rejected it—allegedly with encouragement from the UAE. According to Middle East Eye, Emirati Ambassador Yousef al-Otaiba has lobbied President Trump’s inner circle to oppose Egypt’s plan and promote Trump’s controversial forcible displacement Reports suggest the US is using its $1.3 billion in annual military aid to Egypt as leverage to push for Cairo’s compliance.

4️⃣ 🇪🇹 🇪🇷 Hundreds killed in Amhara region as Ethiopian security forces clash with Eritrea–backed Fano: Renewed clashes in Ethiopia’s Amhara region have reportedly left over 300 Fano fighters dead, according to a statement from the national army. The military claimed the group launched attacks in multiple areas before being “neutralized,” reporting 317 killed and 125 injured. However, Fano leaders dispute these figures, alleging instead that hundreds of federal troops were killed and dozens captured. Once allies in the war against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Fano and the Ethiopian military turned against each other following Amhara’s dissatisfaction with the 2022 Pretoria peace deal. Amid rising tensions, Human Rights Watch has accused the army of war crimes, including the execution of civilians in Merawi, warning that the military’s conduct contradicts its stated aim of restoring order.

5️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 Chinese premier meets Republican senator, discuss ‘dialogue over confrontation’: Republican Senator Steve Daines, a close ally of Donald Trump, met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Beijing on Sunday as part of efforts to ease trade tensions and prevent further tariffs from Washington. This visit, the first by a U.S. lawmaker since Trump returned to office, was held alongside a delegation of top American CEOs including leaders from Qualcomm, Pfizer, Boeing, and Cargill. Daines, who has long engaged in U.S.-China trade negotiations and previously lived in China, underscored the importance of dialogue amid growing bilateral strains. Premier Li urged cooperation over confrontation, as both sides brace for a potential new round of U.S. tariffs and await the outcome of a review on China's adherence to the previous trade deal.

Major Story

🇨🇩 🇷🇼 FRAGILE CEASEFIRES AND FADING HOPE: EASTERN DRC’S DEEPENING CRISIS

The humanitarian situation in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo is spiraling, with aid reaching fewer than 13% of the 11 million people in need even before M23 rebels captured key cities like Goma and Bukavu. Cholera is on the rise, healthcare access has collapsed, and the International Rescue Committee warns of a catastrophic decline in public health. Regional allies are retreating—Southern African states recently withdrew their peacekeeping force, not due to mission success, but to avoid further losses.

Diplomatic Gambits and Lost Momentum

Talks hosted by Angola initially offered hope, nudging Congolese President Tshisekedi to reconsider his long-standing opposition to direct dialogue with M23. Yet, optimism quickly faded after EU sanctions on Rwanda prompted M23’s withdrawal from the talks. Rwandan President Kagame, rejecting pressure as “neo-colonial,” cut diplomatic ties with Belgium and continues backing M23’s advances, while Tshisekedi’s government remains disorganised and focused on regime survival.

Geopolitical Realities and the Return of Resource Diplomacy

A brief ceasefire announcement mediated by Qatar now stands as the latest uncertain development in a long series of broken pledges. The broader context—defined by transactional geopolitics, mineral-for-security deals, and diminished Western commitment—offers little assurance. In this climate, where both the Congolese state and Rwandan-backed alternatives fail to inspire hope, the Congolese people remain trapped in a protracted crisis with no credible path to peace.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇰🇪 🇸🇴 At least six killed in Kenya after al-Shabaab attack: Six police officers were killed in northeastern Kenya when suspected al-Shabaab militants attacked a National Police Reservists camp in the remote Fafi area of Garissa County, near the Somali border. Kenya’s Anti-Terrorism Police Unit confirmed the assailants stormed the camp and opened fire, identifying them as likely members of the Somalia-based al-Shabaab group. Security forces have since intensified operations to track the perpetrators. Garissa County, often targeted due to its proximity to Somalia, remains a hotspot for cross-border militant activity, with authorities reaffirming their commitment to restoring peace and stability in the region.

2️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Israel approves independence of 13 new West Bank settlements, despite ICJ ruling: Israel’s security cabinet has approved a plan to formally separate 13 Jewish outposts in the occupied West Bank from their parent settlements, with the goal of recognising them as independent settlements. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, a key far-right figure in Prime Minister Netanyahu’s coalition, announced the move as part of a broader strategy to entrench Israeli sovereignty over the West Bank, which he referred to as “Judea and Samaria.” This comes amid expanded settlement approvals and heightened tensions following the October 7 Hamas attack. International legal institutions consider all West Bank settlements illegal.

3️⃣ 🇸🇸 Peace watchdog demands accountability following outbreak of fighting in South Sudan’s Upper Nile state: The Reconstituted Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (RJMEC) has denounced the recent violence in South Sudan’s Upper Nile State, including the deadly March 7 attack on a UN helicopter during an evacuation in Nasir County. The incident claimed the lives of SSPDF commander Gen. David Majur Dak and a UN crew member. The helicopter had been deployed to extract soldiers trapped amid clashes between the SSPDF and the White Army, a local armed group. RJMEC called for an immediate cessation of hostilities, urging South Sudan’s transitional leadership and defence bodies to restore calm, expedite the unification of forces, and uphold the Permanent Ceasefire—warning that continued violence threatens progress made under the 2018 Revitalized Peace Agreement.