Welcome back to another week in geopolitics,

In South Asia, the Rohingya refugee crisis is intensifying pressure on Bangladesh as the Arakan Army escalates its efforts to drive Myanmar's military out of northern Rakhine State. 

In the Middle East, a Houthi ballistic missile struck a location near Tel Aviv, prompting Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to warn that Yemen will "pay a heavy price."

Let’s get into it ⤵️ 

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1️⃣ 🇾🇪 🇮🇱 Houthi ballistic missile hits target near Tel Aviv: Nine people were injured on Sunday as they rushed to shelters in central Israel after air raid sirens went off. A ballistic missile from Yemen landed in an open area near Tel Aviv, according to the Israel Defense Forces. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu blamed the attack on Yemen's Ansarullah, or Houthi movement, which is aligned with Iran. He warned they would pay "a heavy price" for attempting to harm Israel, adding, "Anyone who attacks us will not escape our reach." Sirens, the first in the area in months, also sounded at Ben Gurion International Airport. Local media captured video of people seeking shelter, though the airport soon resumed normal operations. Footage from outside Tel Aviv showed a crater and a fire, with firefighters on the scene. The Houthis claimed responsibility, warning of future strikes, and said the missile, which travelled over 2,000 kilometres in 11½ minutes, targeted a military site in Jaffa. Houthi officials said the attack was a response to Israeli actions against Palestinians, declaring, "This is just the beginning."

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 Former US President Trump Survives Second Assassination Attempt: A suspect has been arrested after a kalashnikov-style assault rifle and scope were found at a Donald Trump golf course in Florida in what authorities are calling an "attempted assassination" of the former president. The incident occurred on Sunday at the Trump International club in West Palm Beach, where Secret Service agents spotted the firearm through a fence in a wooded area near the course as Trump was playing. The FBI stated that this was the second attempt on Trump’s life in two months, following a shooting at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13, where Trump was injured, a spectator was killed, and Secret Service snipers shot the assailant. Voter registration records in North Carolina link the suspect to a Democrat in Julien, who had recently voted in March. Social media accounts matching the suspect show support for Ukraine and posts backing both Republicans and Democrats, including Trump. During a recent presidential debate in Pennsylvania, Trump avoided directly stating whether he wanted Ukraine to win the war. Steve Bannon’s War Room co-host, Natalie Winters, reported that Trump was placed in a secure location after the incident.

3️⃣ 🇻🇪 🇪🇸 Venezuelan opposition candidate flees country: Opposition presidential candidate Edmundo González left for Spain on Sunday after being offered asylum, following an arrest warrant from Venezuelan authorities on charges of conspiracy. This comes after the disputed 28 July elections, where both President Nicolás Maduro’s governing party and the opposition claimed victory amid widespread accusations of electoral fraud. According to Crisis Group expert Phil Gunson, González’s departure may discourage opposition voters who still hope to challenge the election results. The opposition now needs a more effective strategy that considers the government's unwillingness to negotiate a political transition. 

4️⃣ 🇵🇬 Violent competition for gold mines is devastating Papua New Guinea, says UN: Papua New Guinea has authorised police to use "lethal force" in response to escalating tribal violence that has claimed dozens of lives. The United Nations estimated on Monday that between 20 and 50 people have been killed in the ongoing clashes in the Porgera Valley, Enga province, a region rich in gold deposits. Hundreds of tribal warriors are involved in the fighting, reportedly over control of local mining access. The violence escalated following an August attack on a landowner by unauthorised miners. Police reported that 300 shots had been fired in a single day as the conflict raged on. UN humanitarian adviser Mate Bagossy stated that the death toll had reached "at least 20" by Sunday, but local sources suggest it could be as high as 50.

5️⃣ 🇸🇴 🇪🇹 🇪🇬 Risk of miscalculation high, as Ethiopia-Egypt tension at breaking point: Tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia are escalating, driven by the Ethiopian government's growing ties with Egypt. Strains were already evident due to a dispute over Ethiopian sea access via Somaliland, prompting Mogadishu to threaten the removal of Ethiopian troops stationed in Somalia as part of the African Union's mission against Al-Shabaab. Last month, tensions worsened when Egypt signed a defence agreement with Somalia and supplied military equipment. Ethiopia’s foreign ministry responded by accusing unnamed parties, likely Egypt, of trying to destabilise the region. According to Crisis Group expert Omar Mahmood, this situation carries a high risk of miscalculation. If Egypt significantly increases its military presence in Somalia, it could spark a proxy conflict with Ethiopia, which is already at odds with Egypt over Nile River disputes.

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🇺🇸 🇨🇳 BEIJING, WASHINGTON CONCLUDE SOUTH CHINA SEA TALKS

Maritime disputes, such as those at the Sabina Shoal claimed by both China and the Philippines, have led to clashes at sea. In August, China obstructed attempts to resupply the BRP Teresa Magbanua with a force of 40 ships. The Philippines plans to replace the ship, but its departure raises concerns that China might seize the shoal. Filipino scientists had previously discovered piles of crushed corals there, fueling fears that China may be preparing to build a structure to assert its claim.

China acknowledged the ship's departure, asserting it "infringed on China's territorial sovereignty." The China Coast Guard stated that measures were taken against the ship as Philippine attempts to resupply it failed.

Meanwhile, U.S. and Chinese military leaders held routine talks in Beijing, the first since January after a two-year hiatus. Discussions covered Taiwan, the Russia-Ukraine war, and South China Sea tensions. The meetings followed Michael Chase's participation in the Xiangshan Forum and came amid ongoing U.S.-China friction over Taiwan, COVID-19 origins, and economic issues. The resumption of talks is seen as a step toward avoiding conflict, but future communication remains uncertain, especially with the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇲🇲 🇧🇩 Rohingya refugee crisis puts pressure on Bangladesh: As the Arakan Army intensifies efforts to expel the Myanmar military from northern Rakhine State, thousands of Rohingya have fled to Bangladesh to escape the conflict. Despite Bangladesh already sheltering about 1 million Rohingya refugees and officially closing its border, many have managed to cross through informal channels, often with the aid of smugglers. In recent weeks, an estimated 15,000 Rohingya have entered Bangladesh, with tens of thousands more awaiting entry at the border. Crisis Group expert Tom Kean notes that Bangladesh shows little willingness to accept additional refugees, while those who have recently arrived are unlikely to leave soon, and that Dhaka may need to engage with the Arakan Army to facilitate their return.

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Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics