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📰 EU backs Macedonia

📰 EU backs Macedonia

and Indonesia faces Chinese ships

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
October 25, 2024

Welcome back,

Today, Georgia heads to the polls in a crucial election that could shape its path towards EU accession, while North Macedonia continues to advance in its bid to join the bloc.

Meanwhile, the UN Security Council is holding discussions on the Central African Republic, but remains unprepared to deploy a peacekeeping force to war-torn Sudan.

Our main story focuses on the upcoming ceasefire negotiations for Gaza, set to take place in Doha, Qatar.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇺🇳 UN not prepared to send blue helmets to Sudan: UN Secretary-General António Guterres is set to deliver a report to the Security Council on 28 October regarding the protection of civilians amid Sudan’s ongoing civil war. The report will indicate that current conditions are not conducive to deploying a UN force in the country. Critics have drawn parallels between this stance and the UN’s inaction prior to the 1994 Rwandan genocide. Fighting has raged since 15 April 2023 between Sudan’s two power figures: General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan of the Sudanese Armed Forces and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (known as Hemeti), leader of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The conflict’s ripple effects are destabilising the broader region. Multiple mediation efforts are being spearheaded by international actors, including the UN, African Union, Arab League, and IGAD, to find a resolution.

2️⃣ 🇹🇳 🇪🇺 EU refuses to publish human rights report on controversial Tunisia migration deal: The European Commission is facing criticism for withholding findings from a human rights inquiry in Tunisia conducted shortly before signing a controversial migration agreement. An investigation by the EU ombudsman revealed that the Commission quietly performed a "risk management exercise" despite its public claims that a formal human rights impact assessment (HRIA) was unnecessary. The €150m EU-Tunisia migration deal, unveiled in July 2023, aimed to curb migration to Europe but drew backlash amid reports of increasing repression in Tunisia. Recent investigations exposed abuses by EU-funded Tunisian security forces, including allegations of rape and violence against migrants. Concerns have intensified following President Kais Saied's re-election and his anti-immigrant rhetoric. Ombudsman Emily O’Reilly criticised the Commission for lacking transparency and failing to establish clear criteria to suspend funding when linked to human rights violations. Calls have been made for explicit measures to protect human rights in such deals.

3️⃣ 🇬🇪 🇪🇺 Georgia heads to the polls in a crucial election deciding its alignment with the EU or Russia: After 12 years in power, Bidzina Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream faces a tight contest against four opposition groups in a high-stakes election in Georgia. Georgian Dream accuses its rivals of trying to drag the country into the war in Ukraine, while the opposition frames the vote as a choice between alignment with Russia under the current leadership or a European future. Despite public support for EU membership, Brussels froze Georgia's accession bid this year, citing democratic backsliding. Ivanishvili emphasised a "dignified European future" at a rally in Liberty Square, where supporters waved party flags. However, allegations of voter intimidation and recent laws targeting media and civil rights groups have raised concerns over election fairness. Critics see Georgian Dream’s rhetoric as pushing an agenda reminiscent of Viktor Orban’s Hungary, prioritising stability while portraying the opposition as agents of foreign interference.

4️⃣ 🇨🇫 🇺🇳 UN Security Council holds talks on Central African Republic: The UN Security Council recently held closed consultations on the Central African Republic (CAR), focusing on updates from Valentine Rugwabiza, the Special Representative and Head of the UN Stabilization Mission in the CAR (MINUSCA). Discussions centred on political progress, notably the 2019 Peace Agreement's implementation and local-level peace efforts. However, the delay in local elections to April 2025 due to funding shortages remains a challenge. Ambassador Omar Hilale, representing the Peacebuilding Commission, briefed on efforts to mobilise resources. Security remains volatile, with armed group conflicts in the northwest and east, and a worsening humanitarian situation due to Sudanese refugees. Additionally, human rights violations and restrictions on UN operations, like UAV usage, raised concerns. As MINUSCA’s mandate nears renewal, members are expected to deliberate on adjusting it to address evolving needs and bolster electoral support ahead of 2025 elections.

5️⃣ 🇫🇷 🇲🇦 Macron to visit Morocco in high profile diplomatic exchange: French President Emmanuel Macron is set to make a long-awaited state visit to Morocco from 28 October, aiming to mend ties that have been strained for three years. The visit follows an invitation from King Mohammed VI and comes amid France’s recent endorsement of Morocco’s autonomy plan for Western Sahara, marking a significant policy shift. In a statement, Morocco’s royal cabinet highlighted the visit as a testament to the deep-rooted partnership between the two nations. Tensions between Morocco and France had been escalating since 2021 over issues like the Pegasus spyware scandal, visa restrictions, and France’s stance on Algeria. However, the recent thaw has already yielded economic benefits, with French firms winning key infrastructure projects in Morocco. Macron’s trip, the first since 2018, signals a renewed effort to restore diplomatic and economic relations between Rabat and Paris.

Major Story

🇵🇸 🇮🇱 🇶🇦 GAZA CEASEFIRE TALKS TO BE HELD IN DOHA

Background

Israel has announced that Mossad chief David Barnea will lead a delegation to Doha this weekend to revive talks aimed at securing a ceasefire in Gaza. The negotiations, involving Israeli, US, and Qatari officials, come amid escalating conflict and increasing international pressure to end Israel’s war in Gaza and in Lebanon, where they have systematically targeted civilian institutions and populations, in addition to committing war crimes which have been documented by the UN and international legal bodies. Despite several lacklustre attempts to broker ceasefire deals, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken—currently in Doha—emphasised exploring new approaches for a ceasefire and rebuilding efforts in Gaza. Qatari officials have reportedly re-engaged with Hamas following the killing of their leader Yahya Sinwar by Israeli forces. However, there’s no indication that Hamas will participate in the upcoming meetings.

Mounting Civilian Casualties in Gaza and Lebanon

In northern Gaza, ongoing Israeli operations have resulted in over 770 civilian deaths in 19 days, according to local authorities. The conflict has left civilians trapped, while humanitarian aid efforts remain inadequate. Strikes on civilian infrastructure, including schools serving as shelters, continue to draw international criticism.

Simultaneously, Israel has ramped up its military actions in Lebanon, ostensibly targeting Hizbollah strongholds. In retaliation, the Lebanese group has fired rockets into northern Israel. Lebanon’s health ministry reports at least 1,580 deaths since September. As diplomatic efforts intensify, the international community raised $800 million for Lebanon at a conference in Paris. With humanitarian conditions deteriorating rapidly, the UN warned of Lebanon nearing a “humanitarian cliff.” Despite these efforts, securing an immediate ceasefire remains elusive amid rising tensions on multiple fronts.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇲🇰 🇪🇺 North Macedonia edges closer to European Union accession: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen commended North Macedonia on Thursday for its progress on reforms under the EU’s Growth Plan, which aims to bring the country closer to EU membership. “North Macedonia has made significant strides and shown unwavering determination. I applaud its commitment and full alignment with the EU's common foreign and security policy,” von der Leyen stated during her visit to the Western Balkans. She stressed the importance of continued cooperation, emphasising the need for constitutional changes to advance accession talks. Von der Leyen also announced an additional €750 million ($810 million) in EU investments, with the first instalment set for release by year-end. Despite progress, Bulgaria has posed challenges, demanding recognition of historical and cultural ties, including the Bulgarian roots of the Macedonian language and acknowledgment of a Bulgarian minority. Von der Leyen’s tour will continue with stops in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Serbia.

2️⃣ 🇮🇩 🇨🇳 Indonesian and Chinese vessels clash in South China Sea: Indonesia's maritime security agency reported that it drove out a Chinese coast guard vessel for the second time this week after the ship disrupted a survey by the state energy firm Pertamina in the South China Sea. This series of incidents occurred just days after Prabowo Subianto took office as Indonesia’s president. The Chinese vessel had asserted that the waters off Indonesia’s Natuna islands, approximately 1,500 km from China’s Hainan island, were under China’s jurisdiction, which Indonesia’s Bakamla rejected. China claims almost the entire South China Sea through its controversial "nine-dash line," conflicting with Indonesia and other nations' exclusive economic zones. Despite the 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration rejecting China’s claims, Beijing remains defiant. Bakamla emphasised its ongoing commitment to patrol and safeguard Indonesia's sovereignty, while the latest incidents coincided with a meeting between Indonesia’s new defence minister, Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin, and the Chinese ambassador in Jakarta.