Geopolitics Daily
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📰 EU plans trade retaliation

📰 EU plans trade retaliation

and Iran-U.S. talks progress

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
May 01, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

In the DRC, the Southern African Development Community has ended its peacekeeping mandate as Qatar and the U.S. advance diplomacy tied to critical mineral access. Elsewhere, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni navigates Trump-era tariffs and EU unity during her Washington visit, while Al Majalla reports positive momentum in Iran-U.S. backchannel talks.

Today’s main story centres on India and Pakistan, where the risk of miscalculation escalating into open conflict is growing alarmingly high.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇶🇦 🇺🇸 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 Qatar, U.S. push mineral-linked diplomacy in Central Africa's Great Lakes: Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo have signed a “Declaration of Principles” committing to end their protracted conflict in eastern Congo, under U.S. and Qatari mediation. The agreement, brokered after a March summit in Doha, prioritises territorial sovereignty and mutual security concerns—Kinshasa demanding an end to Rwandan backing of M23 rebels, and Kigali seeking curbs on hostile militias in eastern DRC. Notably, the declaration also promotes U.S.-backed investment in Congolese hydropower and critical minerals, reflecting Washington’s strategic interest in countering China’s dominance. Yet, with previous peace efforts having failed and trust between the parties low, success hinges on sustained diplomacy and concrete disarmament from rebel groups.

2️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇺🇸 EU plans two-track trade retaliation tactics on U.S.: The European Commission has outlined a dual-track strategy to present to the Trump administration: potential concessions and a fresh list of retaliatory tariffs, an EU diplomat confirmed. This approach aims to strengthen Brussels’ negotiation leverage while maintaining unity among the EU’s 27 members. Offers include increased investment in U.S. energy and potential regulatory adjustments, with cooperation on China also on the table. However, divisions persist, particularly with France urging broader retaliation beyond goods—potentially including digital services—and calling for the use of the EU’s “anti-coercion” mechanism. The response to suspended U.S. tariffs remains on hold until July 14 as Brussels prepares for renewed talks.

3️⃣ 🇾🇪 🇺🇸 🇬🇧 U.S., UK conduct joint airstrikes on Yemen: U.S. and British forces launched a coordinated airstrike in Yemen this week, targeting a Houthi drone facility south of Sanaa, according to the UK Ministry of Defence. The site was believed to be producing drones used in attacks on Red Sea shipping. The UK said the operation was timed at night to minimise civilian presence, though there was no comment on casualties. This comes amid intensified U.S. strikes under President Trump, with over 800 targets hit since March and mounting concern from rights groups over civilian deaths, including recent claims of a deadly strike on a migrant detention centre.

4️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇸🇾 Israel bombs Damascus amid deadly clashes in Druze areas: Syria’s foreign ministry rejected all forms of foreign interference, following Israeli claims that it targeted extremists threatening the Druze community near Damascus. The statement came after violent clashes erupted in Ashrafieh Sahnaya, killing at least 11, including Druze leader Sheikh Wajdi al-Hajj Ali. Fighting reportedly involved local gunmen and armed groups mobilising from Daraa, with tensions spreading to surrounding villages. Meanwhile, Syrian authorities launched raids to restore order and imposed curfews as violence also flared in Jaramana, prompting emergency meetings to defuse sectarian tensions.

5️⃣ 🇿🇦 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 Southern African Development Community terminates DR Congo peacekeeping mandate: Rwandan forces escorted withdrawing Southern African troops through their territory to Tanzania on Tuesday, marking the start of the SAMIDRC force's departure from eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) had announced in March it would end the mission. Kigali has long opposed the mission, claiming it intensified regional tensions. Rwandan officials welcomed the withdrawal as a step toward peace, while eyewitnesses reported a convoy of around 20 vehicles, including Tanzanian and South African soldiers, crossing into Rwanda. Although some SAMIDRC troops left Goma, M23 sources said others would follow, as the rebel group continues to control much of eastern Congo amid ongoing violence and mass displacement.

Major Story

🇮🇳 🇵🇰 INDIA AND PAKISTAN: SLEEPWALKING INTO WAR?

Pakistan’s civilian and military leadership met in a tense National Security Committee session last week, deeply unsettled by India’s swift accusations following a deadly assault in Indian-administered Kashmir. Armed men, reportedly linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba under the banner of "Kashmir Resistance," killed 26 civilians and wounded dozens in Baisaran. India immediately blamed Pakistan, prompting Prime Minister Narendra Modi to vow retaliation and suspend the Indus Waters Treaty, cancel visas, and downgrade diplomatic ties. Pakistan denied involvement, calling the claims “politically motivated.”

Unprecedented Indus Treaty Suspension

India’s decision to suspend the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty—long seen as untouchable even during war—is seen in Pakistan as a severe provocation. With Pakistan’s agriculture reliant on the Indus river system, experts warn of devastating consequences. Analyst Pervez Hoodbhoy said the treaty's revocation amounts to “a call for war.” Pakistan responded with reciprocal expulsions, trade suspensions, and closed airspace to Indian flights.

Modi’s Domestic Politics and Anti-Pakistan Narrative

While Pakistan has historically supported insurgent networks, critics say Modi’s Hindu nationalist politics and crackdown in Kashmir fuel internal unrest. Modi has frequently invoked anti-Pakistan sentiment for electoral gain, including following the 2019 Pulwama attack, which nearly sparked war. Under his leadership, India has also revoked Kashmir’s autonomy, jailed dissidents, and emboldened right-wing groups targeting Muslims.

Risks of Further Escalation

The timing of the attack—coinciding with a high-level US visit—raises concerns about international involvement. While the US once played a mediating role, current signals suggest full alignment with India. As tempers flare, observers urge restraint between the two nuclear-armed neighbours. The poorest communities across both countries stand to suffer most from any escalation.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇺🇸 🇺🇳 Israel not legally bound to aid Gaza through UNRWA, U.S. argues: Addressing the International Court of Justice, US State Department legal adviser Joshua Simmons defended Israel’s suspension of cooperation with UNRWA, citing national security concerns. He argued that under international law, Israel has no legal duty to coordinate with a specific third party, including UN agencies, especially if it compromises its security. Simmons maintained that while the US supports humanitarian assistance to Gaza, obligations under the Geneva Conventions are not absolute and must account for military necessity. The case follows a UN General Assembly request for an advisory opinion on whether Israel’s aid blockade violates international law and UN privileges, amid deepening humanitarian crises in Gaza.

2️⃣ 🇮🇹 🇺🇸 Meloni navigates Trump tariffs and EU unity in Washington visit: Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni became the first European leader to visit Washington following Donald Trump’s threat to impose 20% tariffs on EU goods. During her April visit, she positioned herself as a bridge between Brussels and Washington, offering increased investment in the U.S. while reaffirming support for Ukraine—despite Trump’s skepticism. Meloni’s overtures reflect her broader strategy: aligning with conservative allies like Trump and Elon Musk while preserving Italy’s influence in the EU. But in balancing far-right alliances and EU commitments, she risks alienating both sides and undermining Italy’s standing on the global stage.

3️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Iran-U.S. talks progressing positively, reports Al Majalla: Negotiations between Iran and the United States are progressing rapidly, with the latest round taking place on April 26 in Muscat. Both parties appear more committed to reaching a deal than during the 2013–15 nuclear talks, largely due to heightened urgency: Iran is now a nuclear threshold state, and failure could trigger military strikes. Domestically, Iran’s political landscape has shifted, limiting hardliner resistance, while the U.S. side has appointed loyalist Michael Anton to head its technical team. Regional actors like Saudi Arabia now back the process, reducing external opposition, though key issues—such as uranium enrichment limits—remain unresolved and could challenge the talks as they deepen.