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📰 EU takes on Beijing

📰 EU takes on Beijing

and Lebanon ceasefire agreed

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
November 27, 2024

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Russia dominates today’s headlines: In Romania—an EU and NATO member of critical strategic importance—a pro-Russia candidate has taken an unexpected early lead in the presidential race.

Meanwhile, NATO ambassadors convene to address Russia’s recent use of intermediate-range ballistic missiles, and the EU moves to sanction Chinese companies accused of aiding Russia. In the Middle East, a fragile ceasefire has been brokered in Lebanon.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 Lebanon ceasefire successfully brokered: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has confirmed a ceasefire agreement with Hizbollah in Lebanon, warning that any violations or attempts by the group to rearm will prompt retaliatory strikes. The announcement comes amid intensified hostilities, with Israeli airstrikes hitting Beirut, killing at least 31 people in 24 hours, and Hizbollah resuming rocket fire into Israel. Moments after U.S. President Joe Biden acknowledged the ceasefire deal, Israeli airstrikes targeted Beirut’s Khandaq al Ghamiq neighbourhood. Lebanon’s MTV News reported the strikes destroyed an apartment in the area. Iranian analyst Tohid Asadi noted that Tehran is monitoring the ceasefire closely, emphasizing its priority to prevent further escalation. Iranian Supreme Leader adviser Ali Larijani has expressed support for Lebanon’s decision on the truce. Meanwhile, EU chief Ursula von der Leyen welcomed the deal, citing its potential to bolster Lebanon’s security. However, fresh Israeli evacuation warnings for Beirut’s southern suburbs—issued hours before the ceasefire's activation—have raised concerns over continued violence.

2️⃣ 🇧🇪 🇷🇺 NATO ambassadors discuss Russian use of intermediate-range ballistic missiles: NATO representatives have convened in the NATO-Ukraine Council (NUC) to address Ukraine's security following Russia's recent test of an experimental intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM). Senior Ukrainian military officials joined the meeting via video link to provide updates. NATO Allies reaffirmed their unwavering support for Ukraine, condemning the missile attack on Dnipro as a deliberate act of terror against civilians and an attempt to intimidate nations aiding Ukraine in its defence against Russia’s unlawful aggression. NATO spokesperson Farah Dakhlallah emphasized, “This deployment will neither alter the conflict’s trajectory nor weaken NATO’s commitment to Ukraine.” Chaired by NATO’s acting Deputy Secretary General Boris Ruge, the session underscored the Council’s role in addressing shared security concerns. The next meeting will coincide with NATO Foreign Ministers’ discussions on 3-4 December.

3️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇨🇳 🇷🇺 European Union proposes sanctions on Chinese firms supporting Russia: The European Union is escalating its stance toward China by planning sanctions against over a dozen Chinese firms accused of aiding Russia's war efforts. These companies are alleged to have facilitated the export of military-use goods to Russia or directly supplied Moscow with crucial military materials. For the first time, Brussels is seriously targeting Chinese entities through expanded export and trade restrictions. Under the proposed measures, European exports to these firms would be prohibited, and a new list of individuals facing travel bans and asset freezes includes a Chinese national. While the EU previously refrained from imposing significant penalties on China, hoping Beijing might influence Russia’s actions, evidence of Chinese involvement in producing combat drones has marked a turning point. However, concerns over economic repercussions among member states continue to complicate negotiations.

4️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇸🇩 35 million people displaced by conflict and climate crisis in Africa, says report: Wars and climate disasters have driven a dramatic rise in internal displacement across Africa, with numbers tripling over the past 15 years, according to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC). The continent now has 35 million internally displaced people (IDPs), up from 11.6 million in 2009, when African governments committed to addressing the root causes of displacement. Conflict remains the primary driver, accounting for 32.5 million IDPs, with 80% concentrated in five nations: the DR Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Somalia, and Sudan. Climate disasters, however, are an increasingly significant factor. In 2023 alone, climate-related displacements surged to 6.3 million—six times higher than in 2009—with flooding causing 75% and drought 11%. The report underscores the urgent need for stronger measures to tackle displacement, especially as climate threats continue to escalate.

5️⃣ 🇲🇽 🇺🇸 Mexico plans retaliatory tariffs on U.S: Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum signaled potential retaliation against U.S. tariffs, following President-elect Trump's threat to impose 25% duties on Mexican goods unless drug trafficking and illegal migration are curtailed. Sheinbaum emphasized that the drug crisis is primarily a U.S. issue, stating, “One tariff would provoke another, endangering shared industries like cross-border automaker operations.” Acknowledging Mexico's efforts to reduce migrant flows—claiming migrant caravans no longer reach the border—Sheinbaum admitted that actions to combat drugs, including fentanyl produced by Mexican cartels using Chinese chemicals, have faltered recently. She also highlighted the issue of U.S.-sourced weapons smuggled into Mexico, asserting that drug abuse is a public health issue within U.S. society. Critiquing U.S. military spending, Sheinbaum proposed reallocating funds toward regional development to address migration’s root causes, underscoring a stark contrast to Trump’s dealings with former Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

Major Story

🇺🇸 🇨🇳 TRUMP’S CABINET SIGNALS INTENSIFIED U.S.–CHINA RIVALRY

Background

As Donald Trump begins his second term, his cabinet appointments highlight a sharper, more confrontational stance on China, pointing to escalating U.S.-China tensions in the years ahead. Key nominees include Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, Michael Waltz as National Security Adviser, John Ratcliffe as CIA Director, Robert Lighthizer as U.S. Trade Representative, and Elise Stefanik as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. Collectively, they bring a history of challenging Beijing on trade, human rights, military actions, and industrial espionage.

Marco Rubio’s selection as Secretary of State underscores the administration’s pivot to a hawkish China policy. A vocal critic of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Rubio has consistently identified China as America’s foremost strategic threat. He has condemned past policies that, in his view, facilitated China’s economic rise at the expense of U.S. manufacturing and democratic principles. Rubio’s rhetoric emphasises China’s ambition to supplant the U.S. as the leading global power, calling for assertive measures to counter these efforts.

A Unified Hardline Approach

With Rubio leading diplomacy and a team of similarly hawkish officials, the administration appears poised to adopt a unified, hardline approach against China, further straining bilateral relations and shaping a volatile geopolitical landscape.

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1️⃣ 🇷🇴 🇷🇺 Shock victory for Russia–aligned candidate in first–round of Romanian presidential election: Romania—an EU and NATO member with significant strategic importance—faces pivotal elections that could shift its political trajectory. After a surprising upset in the first of three critical votes, the country will hold a parliamentary election this Sunday, followed by a presidential runoff on 8 December. The outcomes are being closely monitored in Brussels and among Western allies, as Romania has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine, hosting a NATO base, providing air defence systems, and facilitating Ukrainian grain exports. The presidential race saw a shock first-round victory for Călin Georgescu, a far-right, pro-Russia independent, with 22.9%. Liberal-progressive candidate Elena Lasconi trailed at 19.2%, while mainstream candidates, including Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, were eliminated. Georgescu's controversial views include praise for Vladimir Putin and criticism of NATO and the EU, raising concerns over Romania's future alignment.