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📰 EU to 'Orban-proof' Russia sanctions

📰 EU to 'Orban-proof' Russia sanctions

and France-Algeria diplomatic crisis escalates

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
April 16, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

Today, Singapore dissolves its parliament ahead of May elections. In Sudan, the government has criticised the UK for excluding the Sudanese Armed Forces from London-hosted talks, while including the UAE, whom it accuses of backing the RSF. Meanwhile, in the Middle East, a UAE-aligned militia will be absorbed into Syria’s armed forces, and Washington is stepping up pressure on Lebanon to disarm Hizbollah.

Our main story examines the emerging strategic significance of the Arctic as melting sea ice reshapes global power dynamics.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇫🇷 🇩🇿 France-Algeria diplomatic row escalates as Paris expels 12 Algerian officials: France has expelled 12 Algerian diplomats and recalled its ambassador from Algiers, escalating a diplomatic standoff between the two countries. The French presidency attributed the deterioration in relations to actions by Algerian authorities, particularly in the wake of a high-profile case involving the abduction of opposition figure Amir Boukhors, known online as Amir DZ. Boukhors, who holds political asylum in France, alleged he was abducted in April by individuals posing as police—one of whom was later revealed to work at the Algerian consulate. The move comes amid broader tensions, including France’s support for Morocco’s stance on Western Sahara and calls for the release of Algerian author Boualem Sansal, currently imprisoned on charges of undermining national integrity.

2️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇬🇧 🇦🇪 Sudan’s foreign office criticises London conference after UAE included, SAF excluded: Sudanese Foreign Minister Ali Youssif, speaking at a virtual press briefing with major UK media outlets, renewed harsh criticism of the international conference on Sudan convening in London. The event—hosted by the EU, Germany, and France—was held without Sudan's participation, prompting Youssif to denounce the exclusion as a diplomatic affront. He accused the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of continued attacks on civilians, particularly in Abu Shouk and Zamzam camps, and alleged external involvement via drone strikes. Youssif singled out the UAE as the RSF’s principal backer, Chad as a logistical conduit, and Kenya for hosting meetings he claimed aim to fracture Sudan’s territorial integrity. While reaffirming Khartoum’s openness to humanitarian access and ceasefire talks, he insisted any truce must include RSF withdrawal, disarmament, and cessation of hostilities.

3️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇭🇺 🇷🇺 European Commission moves to ‘Orban-proof’ Russia sanctions: Several European governments are exploring ways to bypass Hungary’s veto power over sanctions on Russia by enacting national legislation, reducing the need for unanimous EU approval. At least six capitals are reportedly working on domestic laws to continue sanctions regardless of Hungary’s opposition—an approach that could blunt Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s influence. While some EU states worry this weakens collective foreign policy, others see it as necessary to ensure sanctions endure. Hungary’s repeated obstruction, including nearly derailing sanctions renewal in January, has prompted wider discussion of alternatives such as “coalitions of the willing” and even curtailing voting rights for member states violating EU principles.

4️⃣ 🇧🇹 Bhutan looks to bitcoin for economic relief: For years, Bhutan has measured its progress through Gross National Happiness and environmental preservation. But facing economic headwinds and a growing exodus of skilled youth, the Himalayan kingdom is now embracing Bitcoin mining as a bold, if unconventional, economic strategy. Powered by abundant hydropower and cool mountain temperatures, Bhutan’s supercomputers mine cryptocurrency with low environmental impact—aligning with its carbon-negative status. Officials say mining makes economic sense, particularly in summer months when electricity production exceeds domestic needs. Bhutan reportedly holds over $600 million in Bitcoin, equivalent to nearly a third of its GDP, and in 2023 used crypto profits to double civil servant salaries, helping slow a brain drain. As Bhutan modernises with projects like Gelephu Mindfulness City, it is positioning itself at the forefront of green crypto innovation.

5️⃣ 🇹🇷 🇸🇾 🇮🇱 Erdogan castigates Israel over undermining stability in Syria, following bilateral talks: President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has accused Israel of fuelling instability in Syria following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, warning that Turkey would not permit a return to regional chaos. Speaking at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, Erdoğan said Israel was attempting to undermine the "8 December revolution" and pledged to safeguard Syria’s territorial integrity in coordination with regional powers, including the U.S. and Russia. He met with Syria’s transitional president Ahmed al-Sharaa on the forum’s sidelines, reaffirming Ankara’s commitment to lifting sanctions and preventing further disruption. The tensions follow Israeli airstrikes on key Syrian military bases, which Turkey has reportedly inspected as part of a prospective joint defence arrangement with Damascus.

Major Story

🇨🇳 🇷🇺 🇺🇸 THE ARCTIC FRONTIER: CLIMATE CHANGE, GLOBAL STRATEGY, AND GREAT POWER COMPETITION

Climate change is transforming the Arctic into a new arena for geopolitical rivalry. As warming temperatures make the Arctic Ocean seasonally navigable—potentially year-round by 2100—major powers are eyeing the region for its shipping routes and untapped energy reserves. This shift is reshaping the strategic calculations of China, Russia, and the United States.

China’s Arctic Ambitions

China, though non-Arctic, has positioned itself as a “near-Arctic state,” pursuing shipping and energy access through its Polar Silk Road initiative. Shorter trade routes through the Arctic could cut travel time to Europe by 40%, reducing shipping costs and reliance on US-monitored southern maritime chokepoints. With growing partnerships across Russia and the North Atlantic, China views the Arctic as a strategic hedge against US influence.

Russia’s Northern Advantage

For Russia, the Arctic offers a strategic solution to its lack of warm-water ports. As the ice recedes, Moscow is intensifying development of the Northern Sea Route and exploiting Arctic energy reserves to solidify its status in global energy markets. Though Russia currently partners with China, its long-term concern may be Beijing’s expanding Arctic role.

The US Awakens to Arctic Strategy

The United States, with Alaska as its Arctic gateway, is reinvigorating its military and economic presence to counter rising Chinese and Russian influence. From port expansions to geopolitical posturing over Greenland, Washington aims to safeguard its interests in line with the Mahanian doctrine. Failure to assert control over Arctic routes risks weakening American global primacy.

Conclusion

The Arctic’s strategic value is rising with the temperature. As ice melts, the region may emerge as a critical junction of trade, energy, and power projection—potentially redrawing the global balance and adding a frozen frontier to 21st-century great power competition.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇦🇪 🇸🇾 UAE-linked militia to integrate into Syrian armed forces: A prominent UAE-backed militia in southern Syria, the Eighth Brigade, has officially dissolved and will be integrated into the Syrian army, marking a significant development in the country's ongoing efforts to reassert state control. The group's spokesperson, Col. Mohamed Al-Hourani, announced the move on Sunday, framing it as a commitment to national unity and stability. Headed by Ahmed Al-Awdeh and previously linked to both the UAE and Jordan, the militia had resisted earlier government calls for integration. The announcement followed recent clashes in Daraa province and coincided with Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa’s first official visit to the UAE, where he met President Mohammed bin Zayed. While the dissolution may ease tensions in parts of Daraa, analysts caution that deeper structural issues—such as armed tribal rivalries and proliferation of weapons—remain unresolved.

2️⃣ 🇸🇬 Singapore dissolves parliament ahead of election: Singapore will hold its 14th general election on May 3, following the dissolution of parliament by President Tharman Shanmugaratnam on Tuesday. Nomination Day is scheduled for April 23, with nine days of campaigning and a “cooling-off” period before voting. This marks Prime Minister Lawrence Wong’s first election since succeeding Lee Hsien Loong. The ruling People’s Action Party (PAP), in power since 1965, will face competition for all 97 seats amid public concerns over inflation, employment, and economic stability. The election also unfolds as Singapore confronts sluggish growth projections and the fallout from escalating global trade tensions, with Wong expressing disappointment over recent U.S. tariff hikes.

3️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇺🇸 U.S. pressures Lebanon for Hizbollah disarmament: Since forming a new government in February, Lebanon has come under growing international pressure—particularly from the United States—to disarm Hizbollah. While the Lebanese army has taken control of most Hizbollah positions south of the Litani River, the group still holds a significant arsenal to the north. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has signalled a policy shift, omitting “armed resistance” from the cabinet’s agenda and declaring the issue of Hizbollah’s weapons resolved. However, President Joseph Aoun has opted for dialogue over confrontation, seeking gradual disarmament through negotiations to avoid internal conflict.