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📰 Europe’s gas crisis looms

📰 Europe’s gas crisis looms

and Afghanistan’s fragile unity

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
January 02, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

France dominates today’s headlines with airstrikes targeting Islamic State positions in Syria and the announcement of a French military withdrawal from Côte d’Ivoire, mirroring earlier exits from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, driven by coups and growing anti-French sentiment.

Our main story focuses on Afghanistan, where the Taliban’s internal power struggles continue to shape the country’s fragile governance.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇾🇪 U.S. strikes in Yemen escalate regional tensions, Houthis vow retaliation: Yemen’s Houthi spokesperson Mohammed Abdulsalam condemned recent US airstrikes on Sanaa, calling them a violation of Yemen’s sovereignty and an endorsement of Israel’s actions in Gaza. Abdulsalam stated on Tuesday that Yemen would defend itself against further attacks, denouncing the strikes as unjustified aggression. According to US Central Command (CENTCOM), the strikes on December 30 and 31 targeted Houthi command sites and facilities used for producing and storing missiles and drones. This marked the second consecutive day of US military action in Yemen.

2️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇷🇺 Europe faces gas shortages as Russia–Ukraine transit deal expires: Europe will receive its last Russian gas shipments through Ukraine’s pipelines as their transit agreement ends on New Year’s Day. This signals a significant shift in the region’s energy dynamics, further reducing Russia’s influence as a key supplier after its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. With no renewal in place, European countries are increasingly dependent on gas from the U.S., Norway, and Qatar. Analysts warn that colder weather could deplete reserves, forcing eastern Europe to draw from northwestern markets. Ukraine, while capable of meeting its needs under normal conditions, may require EU imports if the winter proves severe. The looming cold snap is expected to drive up gas demand across the continent, posing one of the toughest tests for European energy supplies in recent years.

3️⃣ 🇫🇷 🇨🇮 French military to withdraw from Cote D’Ivoire, says Ivorian President: Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara announced that French forces will withdraw from the country, marking another step in France’s military pullback from West Africa. In his year-end address, Ouattara highlighted the strengthening of Ivory Coast’s armed forces, framing the withdrawal as part of a coordinated effort. France has been scaling down its regional military presence, with troop reductions expected across West and Central Africa. This follows similar withdrawals from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, where coups and rising anti-French sentiment have reshaped the security landscape.

4️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 🇷🇺 U.S. issues new sanctions regime on Russia and Iran: The United States has imposed fresh sanctions on Russia and Iran over alleged attempts to interfere in the 2024 elections. The Treasury Department said on Tuesday that affiliates of Russia’s GRU and Iran’s IRGC were involved in efforts to inflame domestic divisions through disinformation. Bradley Smith, acting undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, warned that both governments had targeted US electoral processes, vowing continued vigilance against threats to democracy. The announcement comes after Donald Trump secured victory in November’s presidential election, with Republicans gaining control of both chambers of Congress.

5️⃣ 🇫🇷 🇸🇾 France conducts strikes on Islamic State in Syria: France launched airstrikes on targets in Syria over the weekend, ostensibly aimed at weakening Islamic State positions, according to Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu. Announced on Tuesday, the strikes followed a similar U.S. operation that killed two Islamic State operatives. Lecornu stated the attacks were carefully coordinated and aimed at key sites.

Major Story

🇦🇫 FRAGMENTED POWER DYNAMICS OF THE TALIBAN

Since reclaiming control of Afghanistan in 2021, the Taliban has struggled to govern a fragile state plagued by economic crises and internal divisions. Supreme Leader Hibatullah Akhundzada’s consolidation of power has deepened rifts within the Taliban’s leadership, exacerbating tensions and undermining national stability. His policies, often at odds with senior figures like Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani and Defense Minister Mohammad Yaqoub, highlight the factional nature of the movement.

The Taliban remains a coalition of competing factions, including the Haqqani Network and the Kandahari Taliban, with rivalries further complicating governance. While the Taliban suppresses dissent in the short term, this approach fuels long-term grievances. Additionally, the Taliban provides sanctuary to extremist groups it cannot fully control, posing risks beyond Afghanistan’s borders. Akhundzada’s growing authoritarianism threatens to fracture the movement, increasing vulnerabilities to domestic unrest and external threats.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Russia and Ukraine implement prisoner exchange: Russia and Ukraine conducted a significant prisoner exchange just before New Year’s Eve, facilitated in part by the United Arab Emirates. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that 189 Ukrainians had been released from Russian captivity, describing it as a victory for the nation. Meanwhile, Russia’s defence ministry reported 150 prisoners from each side were repatriated, though the discrepancy in figures remains unexplained. Among those returning to Ukraine were soldiers from the army, navy, national guard, and border services, including 14 officers and two civilians.