Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics Daily.

In Africa, ISWAP intensifies its insurgency in Nigeria, while South Africa and the European Union deepen their strategic partnership on critical minerals. Elsewhere, Israel targets Beirut just days after Lebanon’s president signalled openness to negotiations.

In today’s lead story, European capitals challenge Washington’s Ukraine peace plan.

Read more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇿🇦 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 🇷🇺 🇦🇷 Ramaphosa rejects US attempt to downgrade G20 handover protocol: South Africa closed the G20 summit in Johannesburg with President Cyril Ramaphosa formally gaveling the session to a close, pointedly declining a US request to transfer the presidency to a junior embassy official rather than to Washington directly at next year's summit in Florida. The US absence, along with that of Russia, China, and Argentina, underscored deep geopolitical divides, yet South Africa insisted it had upheld diplomatic protocol and fulfilled its role. 

2️⃣ 🇻🇪 🇺🇸 Airlines suspend Venezuela routes after US warnings: Several international carriers halted flights out of Caracas after the US Federal Aviation Administration warned of heightened military activity and deteriorating security in Venezuelan airspace. The advisory follows increased US military presence in the region and cautions that aircraft could face danger at any altitude.

3️⃣ 🇹🇷 🇮🇶 Ankara secures control over Iraq’s water management amid sovereignty concerns: Iraq and Turkey have announced an oil-for-water deal, under which revenues from Iraqi oil exports to Turkey will fund water infrastructure projects in Iraq—implemented and managed by Turkish firms. While officials heralded it as a solution to its worsening water crisis, analysts describe the accord as “colonial-style leverage,” calling it a gamble in the face of looming humanitarian catastrophe.

4️⃣ 🇨🇱 Populist contender placed as kingmaker in Chile’s polarised election: Chilean populist economist Franco Parisi, whose surprise 19.7% third-place finish left him holding a pivotal 20% of voters, has refused to endorse either Communist candidate Jeannette Jara or ultra-conservative José Antonio Kast in next month’s runoff. Dismissing both as ideologues disconnected from ordinary citizens, Parisi said his supporters feel exploited by the political left and right.

5️⃣ 🇦🇴 🇪🇺 AU-EU leaders convene for seventh multilateral summit: As AU and EU leaders gather in Luanda, both blocs are navigating profound geopolitical uncertainty. Africa has become central to Europe’s economic and strategic outlook, driven by demand for critical minerals, concerns over migration, yet Europe no longer wields the automatic influence it once did, as African countries increasingly look to China, India, and the Gulf, and insist on value-added cooperation rather than traditional extractive arrangements.

Major Story

🇪🇺 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 EUROPE SETS RED LINES ON UKRAINE PEACE FRAMEWORK

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has warned that elements of Washington’s proposed peace plan for Ukraine could undermine both Ukrainian sovereignty and European security. Speaking on the sidelines of the G20 summit in South Africa, she said any settlement must stop the violence without laying the groundwork for future conflict. Responding to proposals reportedly backed by President Donald Trump—which include territorial concessions to Russia, sharp limits on Ukraine’s armed forces, and a profit share from reconstruction—von der Leyen outlined three non-negotiable principles: borders cannot be altered by force, Ukraine must retain the ability to defend itself, and the European Union must be central to safeguarding long-term peace.

European Concerns over Exclusion and Security Risks

European officials have criticised the U.S. plan for being drafted without input from Kyiv or its European allies, arguing that it rewards Russian belligerence and legitimises territorial gains achieved through invasion. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz described the proposal as “very disappointing,” insisting that Ukraine must receive long-term security guarantees that prevent further Russian hybrid or conventional attacks. European envoys met U.S. negotiators in Geneva over the weekend, urging revisions to ensure that broader European security interests are fully reflected. European Council President António Costa acknowledged U.S. efforts but said major work is needed to make any agreement credible and sustainable.

Kyiv Signals Cautious Engagement

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has confirmed that progress was being made to integrate Ukrainian positions into the framework, though he maintained that any agreement must lead to a “just and lasting peace” rather than temporary relief. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated that Washington is now working on amendments to narrow differences and produce a proposal acceptable to both Ukraine and Europe. Still, U.S. Senator Angus King cautioned that the current proposal is neither “just” nor likely to be durable, urging deeper consultation before any deal is advanced.

The Road Ahead

EU leaders will meet again in Angola to craft a counter-framework that better aligns with international law and regional security architecture. While the U.S. has softened earlier deadlines for Kyiv to accept its terms, tensions persist after Trump criticised both Ukraine and Europe for insufficient gratitude and continued trade with Russia.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇿🇦 🇪🇺 South Africa and EU expand strategic partnership on critical minerals: At a trilateral summit in Johannesburg, South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa held talks, culminating in a landmark agreement on critical minerals.

2️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇱🇧 Israel strikes Beirut days after Lebanon's president agrees to negotiations:  Israel has killed Hizbollah’s chief of staff, Haytham Ali Tabtabai, escalating tensions just two days after Lebanon’s president signalled readiness to enter negotiations under international sponsorship. The attack comes amid intensified Israeli pressure, backed by Washington, for Lebanon to disarm Hizbollah and engage in talks, even as Israel simultaneously expands military operations and violates ceasefire terms.

3️⃣ 🇳🇬 ISWAP executes senior Nigerian military commander: Militants from Islamic State West Africa Province ambushed a Nigerian military convoy in Borno State, claiming they captured and executed Brigadier General Musa Uba, the highest-ranking officer the group has ever killed. The killing marks a dangerous escalation in the 16-year insurgency, severely damaging military morale and public confidence, underscoring the need for a new counterinsurgency strategy.

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