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🇪🇺 European elections cause upset

🇪🇺 European elections cause upset

and Macron dissolves parliament

June 10, 2024

Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics Daily!

The past 24 hours have brought significant election outcomes across Europe in the European Union elections, with shifts towards far-right parties observed in France and Germany. Additionally, Israeli war cabinet minister Benny Gantz has resigned, the EU has mirrored US tariffs on Chinese vehicles, and Russia’s new Caribbean presence stirs reactions from Washington.

Stories from Rwanda, Iran, and Sudan also make headlines.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Benny Gantz resigns from Israel’s war cabinet, Nuseirat massacre death toll climbs: Israeli minister Benny Gantz resigned from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's emergency government, withdrawing the sole centrist influence from the far-right coalition amid a prolonged conflict in Gaza. Although Gantz's departure doesn't immediately alter the identity of the government, it significantly impacts Netanyahu's reliance on hardliners, with the Gaza war ongoing and potential escalations with Hizbollah. In parallel, the Nuseirat massacre claimed the lives of at least 274 Palestinians, showing no reduction in Gaza's violence despite prospects for a US-led ceasefire.

2️⃣ 🇷🇼 Rwanda opposition leader barred from standing against President Kagame: Diane Rwigara, a prominent critic of incumbent Rwandan President Paul Kagame, has been officially barred from next month's election. The leader of the People Salvation Movement, Rwigara was also disqualified in 2017, as Kagame has routinely quashed genuine challengers to his nearly thirty-year rule. “After all the time, work, and effort I put in, I am very disappointed to hear I am not on the list of presidential candidates,” Rwigara stated on X. “Paul Kagame, why won’t you let me run?” The election commission cited her failure to provide a required criminal record statement and not meeting the threshold of 600 supporting signatures from citizens. Rwanda is strongly implicated in the violence that has destabilised the eastern regions of eastern DR Congo, via Kigali-backed rebel group M23.

3️⃣ 🇮🇷 Hardline Parliament speaker and five others approved to run for Iran’s Presidency: Iran’s Guardian Council approved the hard-line parliament speaker, Mohamed Bagher Qalibaf, and five others to run in the June 28 presidential election, following the helicopter crash that killed President Ebrahim Raisi and seven others. This decision kicked off a brief, two-week campaign to replace Raisi, who was a close ally of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and had been considered a potential successor to the Ayatollah. The Guardian Council—a body of clerics and jurists under Khamenei’s control—appears to aim for a smooth election amid concerns over low voter turnout, Iran’s advancing nuclear program, and ongoing tensions with Israel. The council excluded both women and advocates of political reform.

4️⃣ 🇪🇺 EU to follow US’ lead with tariffs on e-vehicles: The European Commission's probe into Chinese electric vehicles has heightened geopolitical tensions. China has heavily funded its domestic companies to achieve economic goals, focusing on the growing Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) sector amid global climate neutrality efforts. Experts suggest that tariffs of 40-50% would be necessary to discourage Chinese EV exports to Europe. EU-China relations are strained over issues such as COVID-19, Ukraine, Taiwan, the Uyghur minority, and election interference. China has condemned the inquiry as "unjustifiable" and "protectionist," warning it will take measures to protect its interests if tariffs are imposed.

5️⃣ 🇺🇳 UNSC discussions on ISIL/Daesh: The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) sanctions regime enforces an assets freeze, travel ban, and arms embargo on those linked to either Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and Al-Qaeda. This move updated Resolution 2610, and targets participants in either group’s activities, arms sales, and recruitment. A January report from the Monitoring Team highlighted that ISIL and Al-Qaeda remain significant threats, with increasing dangers in Europe, and potential safe havens in West Africa and the Sahel. It noted decreased ISIL-K activities in Afghanistan but warned of its cross-border threat, and highlighted the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan's regional and transnational operations from Afghan bases.

Major Story

🇪🇺 EUROPEAN UNION ELECTION RESULTS: EMMANUEL MACRON DISSOLVES PARLIAMENT, CRUSHING DEFEAT FOR CHANCELLOR SCHOLZ

As results continue to come in across Europe, crushing defeats for French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz by far-right parties have sent shockwaves through the EU's constituencies.

Overview

The European Parliament consists of 720 seats, all of which are contested in elections. A majority requires 361 seats, a threshold no single political group is likely to reach. Seats are distributed to each country based on population. Voters cast ballots for national parties, which then align into broader Europe-wide blocs within the parliament.

Each country is assigned a number of MEPs based on degressive proportionality, meaning MEPs from larger countries represent more people than those from smaller countries. Countries have between six and 96 MEPs each.

The number of seats has increased compared to the outgoing parliament. France, Spain, and the Netherlands gained two seats each, while Poland, Belgium, Austria, Denmark, Finland, Slovakia, Ireland, Slovenia, and Latvia each gained one.

Within each country, the distribution of MEPs among political parties is proportional to the votes received. While MEPs are elected by national parties, they typically join one of seven transnational political groups in the Parliament, ranging from the rightwing ID group to the Left group, each requiring at least 23 MEPs from a minimum of a quarter of EU countries.

France

In a surprising turn, French President Emmanuel Macron has called for a snap parliamentary election to be held within the next 30 days. This decision comes after a significant defeat by Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) in the European parliamentary elections.

Previous French presidents have dissolved parliament in 1962, 1968, 1981, and 1988 due to differing presidential and parliamentary term lengths, but it hasn't always been advantageous. In 1997, President Jacques Chirac called for early elections, only to face a left-wing majority, resulting in five years of "cohabitation." Since 2000, the terms have been synchronised, usually ensuring a parliamentary majority for incoming presidents, until Macron's recent re-election.

Germany

Olaf Scholz’s german coalition suffered a historic rout In Germany, as the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) came second, signalling its strength ahead of next year’s federal election. The party is projected to secure over 16% of the vote, surpassing all three parties in Scholz’s coalition. The CDU/CSU alliance led with around 30% of the vote. The Greens suffered an 8.5-point drop to 12%, reflecting voter discontent with CO2 reduction costs.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇸🇩 At least 100 killed in latest RSF Sudan massacre in al-Gezira state: Sudanese paramilitary, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), attacked the village of Wad Al-Noora in the 24 Al-Qurashi locality of Al-Jazira state, resulting in nearly 100 deaths. A video released by the Committees of Madani shows the mass burial of victims in a public square, attended by many residents. In a statement to Sudan Tribune, neighbourhood committees reported, "Wad Al-Noora experienced a massacre after two RSF attacks, resulting in up to 100 deaths." The RSF has routinely attempted to recruit villagers in exchange for protection, a move unwelcome by local communities dependent on agriculture and trade, both severely disrupted.

2️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇨🇺 Russia to deploy combat vessels to the Caribbean: Russia is poised to conduct air and naval exercises in the Caribbean, featuring warships and long-range bombers. This marks the first such simultaneous manoeuvres in the region since 2019 and follows a new Kremlin strategy that has increased its presence elsewhere, such as Africa’s Sahel region. The U.S. interprets these exercises as a response to its support for Ukraine and NATO drills, though they were planned before President Biden lifted the ban on Ukraine using U.S. weapons against targets in Russia. The exercises will last through the summer, with port calls in Cuba and possibly Venezuela.

3️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇭🇰 China and Hong Kong detain dissidents demanding government acknowledgement of Tianneman square massacre: Ahead of the massacre's 35th anniversary last week, Chinese authorities preemptively halted commemorations and intensified its suppression of discussions and commemorations. A Human Rights Watch report has found that the government has imprisoned individuals in China and Hong Kong who attempted to honour the victims, refusing to acknowledge the killings or provide redress.

4️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Ukrainian intelligence aids strike of a warplane deep inside Russia: A Ukrainian warplane has struck a target inside Russia for the first time, hitting a "Russian command node" in Belgorod, near the Ukrainian border, on Sunday. The type of munition used remains unclear. The U.S. and France recently allowed Ukraine to use their weapons to target Russian military sites within Russia, which are being used to launch attacks on Ukraine.