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📰 France-Algeria feud deepens

📰 France-Algeria feud deepens

and Israel backs Russian bases

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
March 04, 2025

Hello,

Today, Iran’s reformist Vice President and chief architect of the JCPOA nuclear deal, Mohammad Javad Zarif, has resigned, while Syria’s interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa has established a committee to draft a constitutional declaration for the country’s transition. Meanwhile, the UK has unveiled a new military aid package for Ukraine, and tensions between France and Algeria continue to escalate.

Our main story examines Trump’s strategy to leverage lower oil prices as both an economic stimulus and a tool for geopolitical realignment.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 🇺🇸 Kremlin ‘cautiously optimistic’ after Zelenskyy-Trump meeting: Following the February 28 meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Kremlin has sought to distort Washington’s stance, falsely portraying it as aligned with Moscow’s objectives. Russian officials, including Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, have framed Ukraine’s defensive efforts and increased European support as a “pro-war” agenda while presenting Russia’s continued aggression as a means to achieving peace. Lower-level Russian officials have expressed optimism that U.S. military aid to Ukraine will soon be cut off, bolstering Russia’s war ambitions. Meanwhile, Russian state media has exaggerated Trump’s position, claiming Washington is shifting toward supporting Russian objectives in Europe, despite continued U.S. military assistance to Kyiv and the absence of any formal policy changes.

2️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇮🇱 🇷🇺 Israel lobbies U.S. to keep Russian bases in Syria: Israel is actively lobbying the U.S. to support a fragmented and weakened Syria, advocating for Russia’s continued military presence in the country, four sources told Reuters. Israeli officials argue that maintaining Russia’s naval base in Tartus and air base in Latakia could curb Turkish influence, a claim that surprised some U.S. officials. Meanwhile, Syria’s new president, HTS leader Ahmad al-Sharaa, insists his government poses no threat to Israel, but Tel Aviv has expanded its military operations, occupying more Syrian territory. Despite public rhetoric against Israel, Turkish President Erdogan has maintained economic ties with Netanyahu, ensuring Azerbaijan’s oil continues to reach Israel. With Syria a low priority for the Trump administration, analysts suggest Israel has significant leverage in shaping U.S. policy in the region.

3️⃣ 🇩🇿 🇫🇷 Algiers-Paris diplomatic feud escalates, immigration agreements to be ‘re-examined’: Diplomatic strains between France and Algeria have deepened, with French Prime Minister François Bayrou announcing a review of immigration agreements and plans to deport Algerian nationals. The crisis is entangled in historical grievances, with Algeria perceiving France’s policies as neocolonial, while French right-wing figures exploit anti-immigration rhetoric for political gain. Meanwhile, disputes over France’s stance on Western Sahara and the arrest of Algerian-born writer Boualem Sansal have further soured relations. As political maneuvering intensifies, Algerians in France face increasing scapegoating, underscoring how immigration, security, and colonial memory remain at the heart of this deteriorating relationship.

4️⃣ 🇬🇧 🇺🇦 Starmer earmarks $2 billion in air-defence missiles for Ukraine: UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced a £1.6 billion ($2 billion) deal on Sunday, enabling Ukraine to acquire 5,000 air-defence missiles through export financing. The UK Ministry of Defence confirmed that Thales would produce the lightweight multirole missiles, which have a range exceeding six kilometres and can be launched from land, sea, or air. Starmer emphasised that the deal would help protect Ukraine’s critical infrastructure and bolster its long-term security. The announcement comes after Russia launched over 200 drones in what Ukraine described as the largest aerial assault since the war began three years ago.

5️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 Arab states, MWL condemn Israel’s Gaza aid blockade: The Muslim World League (MWL) has strongly condemned Israel’s decision to block humanitarian aid from entering Gaza, calling it a blatant violation of international law, according to the Saudi Press Agency. MWL Secretary-General Mohammed Al-Issa urged the global community to take decisive action against these violations and hold those responsible accountable. The Arab Parliament also denounced Israel’s actions, labeling them a war crime and a breach of humanitarian law. It called on the UN Security Council to intervene immediately, warning that depriving civilians of aid, especially during Ramadan, amounts to using starvation as a weapon.

Major Story

🇺🇸 TRUMP’S AGGRESSIVE OIL POLICY RESHAPES GLOBAL ENERGY DYNAMICS

Since January 20, 2025, president Trump has renewed his commitment to lowering oil prices, arguing that cheaper energy benefits consumers, curbs inflation, and undermines Russia's war financing in Ukraine. His executive orders, including “Unleashing American Energy,” and remarks at Davos stress the need to drive down prices by boosting domestic production and applying pressure on OPEC+ to increase output.

Market Conditions and Strategic Targets

Trump’s campaign promises hinted at slashing energy costs by 50%, but practical targets now seem to lie within a WTI range of $40 to $60 per barrel—a balance between reducing consumer costs and avoiding the pitfalls of a production collapse, as witnessed during the 2020 oil crash. Historical comparisons show that lower prices under his first term coincided with favorable economic conditions, which he aims to replicate.

Challenges and Policy Trade-offs

To achieve his goals, the administration is exploring aggressive deregulation, potential production tax credits, and even tariffs on energy imports from neighboring countries. However, market limitations, investor priorities, and global demand uncertainties constrain rapid supply expansion, while competing priorities like refilling the strategic petroleum reserve and enforcing sanctions complicate the picture.

In sum, Trump's strategy seeks to harness lower oil prices as a lever for economic stimulus and geopolitical recalibration, but the inherent challenges of market dynamics and policy trade-offs may limit its overall impact.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇸🇾 Al-Sharaa forms transitional constitution committee: Syria’s interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa announced the creation of a committee to draft a constitutional declaration guiding the country’s transition following the December 8 overthrow of Bashar al-Assad. This seven-member panel aims to establish a framework for governance as Syria rebuilds from decades of authoritarian rule and conflict. The declaration is expected to serve as a temporary legal foundation until a permanent constitution is drafted, a process that could take up to three years. The initiative follows a national dialogue conference in Damascus, which outlined steps toward a democratic state based on justice, freedom, and the rule of law.

2️⃣ 🇮🇷Iran’s vice president resigns: Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran’s most prominent reformist, has resigned from the government, stating he was instructed to do so by a senior official, likely with the endorsement of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. His departure dealt a major blow to President Masoud Pezeshkian’s administration, following the impeachment of Economy Minister Abdolnaser Hemmati. The moves have further destabilized Iran’s markets, as hardliners tighten their grip and block efforts to restore economic ties with the West. Zarif, the architect of the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal, implied his resignation was not voluntary, expressing frustration over relentless attacks on his political career.