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📰 France and New Caledonia reach agreement

📰 France and New Caledonia reach agreement

and Trump reverses Ukraine arms freeze

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
July 14, 2025

Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics Daily.

Today, Kenyan President Ruto faces mounting pressure to resign after authorising police to open fire on demonstrators during nationwide unrest. In Washington, President Trump announces sweeping 30% tariffs on EU and Mexican imports, undercutting ongoing trade negotiations. Meanwhile, the UN reports that nearly 800 Palestinians have been killed while seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza since May.

Our lead story examines the growing risk of conflict across the Taiwan Strait — and the urgent need for credible deterrence, flexible reassurance, and effective crisis management to prevent escalation.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇮🇳 China calls Dalai Lama succession a 'thorn' in ties ahead of India visit: China has labelled the question of the Dalai Lama’s succession a “thorn” in its relations with India, just days before Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar is due to visit China for the first time since deadly Ladakh border clashes in 2020. In a statement on Sunday, the Chinese embassy in New Delhi insisted that the reincarnation of the Tibetan spiritual leader is “an internal affair of China,” criticising Indian commentators for making “improper remarks” on the issue. The Dalai Lama, who fled to India after a failed 1959 uprising, remains a powerful symbol of Tibetan resistance. His presence—and that of the Tibetan government-in-exile—gives India subtle leverage in its dealings with Beijing. While New Delhi officially avoids comment on religious matters, senior officials like Kiren Rijiju have asserted that only the Dalai Lama can decide on his reincarnation. The visit comes amid strained ties following the 2020 border clashes that left dozens dead.

2️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 🇺🇸 Trump reverses arms freeze as Kremlin’s ceasefire terms clash with Ukraine’s red lines: President Donald Trump, once confident in his ability to broker peace in Ukraine, has grown frustrated with Moscow after failing to secure even a temporary ceasefire. On July 8, he condemned Putin’s conduct and reversed a recent Pentagon freeze on arms to Kyiv, that defence secretary Pete Hegseth had reportedly imposed unilaterally. Talks in Istanbul have revealed irreconcilable gaps between Russian and Ukrainian positions: Moscow demands Ukrainian withdrawal from occupied regions and recognition of annexed lands, while Ukraine insists on starting negotiations only after a ceasefire. Russia also seeks Ukrainian neutrality, disarmament, and the suppression of pro-Ukrainian nationalism. Kyiv rejects such terms, though it implicitly accepts temporary Russian control over some areas. Humanitarian progress, including prisoner swaps, has been limited. Ultimately, Russia’s demands are designed to be unacceptable—reinforcing fears that the Kremlin is using diplomacy to stall, not settle, the war.

3️⃣ 🇲🇲 Myanmar junta air strike kills 22 civilians sheltering in monastery: An air strike by Myanmar’s military early Friday killed 22 civilians, including three children, sheltering in a monastery in Lin Ta Lu village, Sagaing region, witnesses have told AFP. Two critically injured survivors remain in hospital. A local resident described scenes of devastation, confirming the death toll and recounting the removal of bodies to a nearby cemetery. Sagaing, a resistance stronghold, has faced relentless air strikes since Myanmar’s 2021 military coup. Despite an apparent post-earthquake truce in March—after a magnitude 7.7 quake killed nearly 3,800—junta offensives persist. A similar attack in May killed 22 students and teachers at a school. The military has not responded to requests for comment.

4️⃣ 🇫🇷 🇳🇨 France agrees to new political status for New Caledonia: France has unveiled a “historic” agreement with New Caledonia, declaring the territory a “State of New Caledonia within the Republic” while retaining it under French sovereignty. The accord, reached after ten days of negotiations near Paris, aims to end years of political deadlock and separatist unrest. President Emmanuel Macron praised the move as a “bet on trust,” offering greater autonomy while affirming ties to France. The agreement proposes a New Caledonian nationality, restricted voting rights for newcomers, and constitutional recognition of its statehood—pending approval by French parliament and a 2026 local referendum. The deal also outlines economic recovery measures, particularly for the nickel sector, after 2024 riots devastated the economy. Indigenous Kanak leaders, long demanding independence, remain cautious amid promises of enhanced self-governance and political reform.

5️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇵🇸 UN reports nearly 800 Palestinians killed while seeking aid in Gaza since May: The UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) reports that at least 800 Palestinians have been killed by Israel while trying to access humanitarian aid in Gaza since late May. According to UN spokeswoman Ravina Shamdasani, 615 deaths occurred near distribution points operated by the US- and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), while 183 more were linked to UN or NGO convoys. Most victims suffered gunshot wounds. The GHF rejected the figures as “false and misleading,” blaming deadly incidents on UN operations and calling for greater collaboration. The OHCHR’s data was gathered from hospitals, NGOs, local sources, and Israeli soldier testimonies, and demanded investigations into the killings. The violence comes amid fragile ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas, as desperate civilians continue to risk their lives for food amid Israeli bombardment.

Major Story

🇹🇼 🇨🇳 RISK OF CONFLICT ACROSS TAIWAN STRAIT DEMANDS CREDIBLE DETERRENCE, FLEXIBLE REASSURANCE, AND CRISIS SAFEGUARDS

A full-scale war between China and Taiwan would carry staggering consequences for East Asia and the global order. Should the United States intervene, a direct clash would ensue between the world’s two largest economies and most capable militaries. Given the proliferation of advanced conventional and nuclear weapons, casualties would likely exceed those of any conflict since 1945. Beyond the battlefield, cyberattacks and strikes on infrastructure could paralyse communications, trade, and energy systems, with global economic shockwaves dwarfing previous crises like the 2008 financial collapse or the COVID-19 pandemic.

Despite the high stakes, leaders in Beijing, Taipei, and Washington continue to prepare for worst-case scenarios. China emphasises peaceful reunification but refuses to renounce force. Taiwan, with 188,000 troops and growing defence investment, must deter aggression and prepare for defence. The United States, guided by the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, balances strategic ambiguity with growing military support, while grappling with resource constraints, global obligations, and domestic uncertainty about long-term commitments in the Indo-Pacific.

The deterrence–reassurance dilemma

Against this backdrop, deterrence aims to prevent conflict by raising the cost of aggression, while reassurance builds trust to avoid miscalculation. Yet as Lt. Gen. Karl Eikenberry writes, these goals can clash. If China perceives fading U.S. resolve, deterrence erodes. If U.S. deterrence lacks credibility, reassurance becomes meaningless. Current trends—China’s growing capabilities, Taiwan’s doubts about U.S. support, and America’s overstretched military-industrial base—challenge both concepts. Strategic ambiguity, once effective, now risks ambiguity of intention. Reducing risks requires robust crisis communication and accident-avoidance protocols. Existing agreements like the 1998 MMCA and 2014 air-maritime conduct rules are insufficient amid rising military activity near Taiwan. The U.S. and China must urgently institutionalise crisis response mechanisms, validate communication channels, and agree on principles such as timeliness, clarity, and redundancy. Without these, an accident could spiral into open war.

Towards military reassurance

Finally, while direct PLA–Taiwan military dialogue may remain politically infeasible, especially under current conditions, future shifts—including waning U.S. presence—might open the door. Dialogue, even indirect or unofficial, could serve as a valuable hedge against crisis. In an increasingly dangerous strategic environment, deterrence and reassurance must not be treated as opposites, but as twin tools for survival.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇰🇪 President Ruto faces calls to resign after ordering police to shoot protesters during unrest: Kenya’s opposition leaders have demanded President William Ruto’s resignation after he instructed police to shoot and “break the legs” of anyone caught looting or destroying property during protests. Opposition figure Kalonzo Musyoka called the remarks unconstitutional and urged impeachment. The directive came amid ongoing nationwide unrest sparked by the death of blogger Albert Ojwang in police custody and the close-range police shooting of civilian Boniface Kariuki. Kariuki, who was unarmed, was shot during an anti-police brutality protest on June 17; an officer has since been charged with his murder. At his burial on Friday, mourners condemned state violence. Over 50 people have died in recent demonstrations. Human rights groups have decried police brutality, while four officers now face murder charges in connection with protest-related deaths, further intensifying public anger at the government.

2️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 🇺🇳 American citizen among those killed in West Bank settler assault: Israeli settlers killed two Palestinians—including 23-year-old Palestinian-American Saif al-Din Musalat—during a coordinated assault in the occupied West Bank near Ramallah on Friday. Musalat was fatally beaten while defending his home, and denied medical attention for 40 minutes. A second victim, Muhammad Shalabi, was later found shot and beaten. Witnesses said the Israeli army stood by as settlers attacked with impunity. Over 25 Palestinians were injured in the raid, which residents say is part of a broader effort to forcibly seize Palestinian lands, particularly the 560-hectare al-Batin area. Local officials and activists described rising settler violence as systematic and emboldened by military complicity. According to the UN, such attacks—already illegal under international law—have surged to unprecedented levels since October 2023, fuelling fears of mass displacement and irreversible land loss in the West Bank.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 🇲🇽 President Trump announces 30% tariffs on EU and Mexico despite ongoing negotiations: President Donald Trump announced a 30% tariff on imports from the European Union and Mexico, effective August 1, catching Brussels off-guard after months of talks that had aimed for a 10% rate. The move, posted on social media, provoked sharp criticism across Europe, with French President Emmanuel Macron urging strong countermeasures and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warning of damage to transatlantic supply chains. Trump justified the tariff by citing persistent trade imbalances and accused the EU of unfair practices. He also warned that any EU retaliation would result in additional U.S. tariffs. While Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum expressed optimism about resolving the issue diplomatically, she reaffirmed Mexico’s sovereignty. Brussels is now under pressure to activate €21bn in retaliatory measures, escalating the risk of a full-blown trade war just as both sides had sought de-escalation.